ALBERT

Notes: The study of economic history attempts to reveal the causes of the growing international economic disparity and to identify the strategic factors of economic change. The historical inductive method, analysed economic history in terms of stages of growth.The underlying idea of the concept of stages, found in List, Marx, the German historicists, and revived in a modern form by Rostow, is that every society passes several phases of economic growth, from infancy or primitive stage to maturity or highly industrialised society. However, the essence of stages in different concepts was not uniform, neither was the indispensability of each and everyone of the stages uncontested. Weber, in particular, opposed the monistic approach, and suggested the concept of ‘ideal types’ from which realities are necessary deviations.Marx's contribution to modern growth theory lies in his dynamising of the classical theory through his expanded reproduction function, envisaging both capital and labour, and their qualities, as the strategic factor of growth, rendering possible both a highly industrialised and an equalitarian society, while List's model can be considered the origin of A. G. B. Fisher's and C. Clark's primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Even in Schumpeter, stages and periodisation of growth can be easily traced, although they are chiefly explained in terms of technology, entrepreneurship and business cycles.Among the modern growth theorists, mainly Rostow revived the concept of stages and the notion of a ‘threshold’ rate of investment as the strategic factor of expanded reproduction and development, while W. G. Hoffmann with his shift from consumer- to capital-goods industries again calls to life Marxian transition as well as the three-sectors concept. Like his predecessors, List with industrialisation and Marx with the capitalist stage, also Rostow is mainly preoccupied with one particular, ‘take-off’ stage. Despite its flaws, Rostow's concept has become a useful tool of historical and positive analysis as well as a framework for normative models fervently looking for strategic factors of change, and some lessons of economic history. It also brought to the fore the rather paradoxical recent development in the economic camp, with ‘new economic historians’ employing purely quantitative methods of research, and growth theorists looking for help (and desirable quantification) to qualitative variables to explain past and present growth trends and to shape adequate growth models.

Notes: This paper provides a brief chronological summary of the main texts concerning education of leading economists from Adam Smith to Pigou. It shows that the classical economists have clearly and almost unanimously recognized education as (1) an investment in human beings; (2) a consumer durable par excellence; (3) a political good in that it preserves law and order; (4) a social good in that it contributes to the diminution of crimes and enhances social mobility; (5) a factor making for more equal income distribution; (6) a source of economic growth; (7) an item carrying large externalities of various kinds; (8) a peculiar commodity bought and sold in a peculiar market; (9) an item liable to be under-invested by private individuals; and (10) an area calling for State intervention.In fact, qualitatively they said everything that is to be said about the economics of education. But they left it to their successors to tackle the quantitative aspects when more statistics and refined methods of statistical analysis become available.

Notes: In recent years a number of investigators have suggested that many economic time series exhibit significant long-run variations about an upward trend as well as short-run business fluctuations. However, several recent studies in which spectrum-analytic techniques have been employed reach negative conclusions with respect to the significance of long swings in economic activity. This paper is concerned with some of the basic problems associated with the use of spectrum estimates to test the significance of low-frequency variation in economic time series. An examination of the problem of low-frequency resolution, inadequate trend removal, low-frequency bias due to least-squares trend elimination, and the variance of low-frequency estimates leads to a qualification of some of the earlier spectrum-analytic results. This study suggests that while there is some evidence of long swings in economic activity, the problems inherent in the analysis of low-frequency variation make it extremely difficult to ascertain the statistical signifiance of these long cycles.

Notes: The behavioural interpretation which Kaldor places on his famous identity between the investment-income ratio and the profit share, and which he attempts to justify by the erroneous claim that the investment-income ratio is an independent variable in the Keynesian system, rests crucially on a model of the firm's pricing behaviour. If an alternative pattern of pricing behaviour is postulated the direction of causation is reversed with the aggregate savings propensity, and hence aggregate demand, being dependent upon the distribution of income, and subsequently to Kaldor Cartter published a model in which both savings and investment are dependent upon the distribution of income. Both models centre upon the aggregate demand—income distribution relationship, but Cartter fails to incorporate any analysis of factor share determination and he does not show how a determinate level of income is achieved, whilst Kaldor's mechanism can only function in a full employment situation.In this paper the influences of marginal productivity and Kalecki's‘degree of monopoly’ are combined with Kaldor/Cartter-type propensities relating savings and investment to the distribution of income, thereby producing a model in which the level of income and the distribution of income are interdependent and involve the determination of a position of simultaneous equilibrium. It is argued that, by retaining the influence of marginal productivity and not being reliant on a full employment situation, the model is in fact more ‘Keynesian’ than Kaldor's so-called ‘Keynesian’ model.

Notes: Baerwald, Friedrigh: Economic Progress and Problems of Labor. Scranton, Pennsylvania 1967. International Textbook Company. 353 pp.Bechtel, H. : Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte Deutschlands. Wirtschaftsstile und Lebensformen von der Vorzeit bis zur Gegenwart. München 1967. Verlag Georg D. W. Callwey. 45 Karten, 8 Schaubilder, 573 S. DM 29.50Bernholz, Peter : Aussenpolitik und Internationale Wirtschqftsbeziehungen. (Frankfurter Wissenschaftliche Beiträge. Rechts- und wirt-schaftswissenschaftliche Reihe, Band 22.) Frankfurt am Main 1966. Vittorio Klostermann. 202 S.Bhagwati, Jagdish : The Theory and Practice of Commercial Policy: Departures from Unified Exchange Rates. Special Papers in International Economics, No. 8. International Finance Section, Department of Economics. Princeton 1968. 66 pp.Bihn, Willi R. : Die informationstheoretische Messung von Struktursystemen des internationalen Handels. Grundlagen und statistische Methoden. (Schriftenreihe des Instituts für international vergleichende Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistik an der Universität Heidelberg, Bd. 5.) Freiburg 1967. Rudolf Haufe Verlag. 176 S.Bristow, J. A., and Tait, A. A. (Eds.): Economic Policy in Ireland. Dublin 1968. Institute of Public Administration. 314 pp. 55 s.Buchanan, James M. : Public Finance in Democratic Process. Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice. Chapel Hill 1967. The University of North Carolina Press. X, 307 pp.Conolly, Violet: Beyond the Urals. London 1967. Oxford University Press. XX, 420 pp. 75 s.Dehem, Roger: Initiation à l'économique. Paris 1967. Dunod. 273 p. Fr. 25.-Eder, Rudolf: Volkswirtschaftliche Theorie des technischen Fortschritts. (Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, Heft 111.) Berlin 1967. Verlag Duncker & Humblot. 150 S.Goffin, Robert: L'autofinancement des entreprises. Paris 1968. Editions Sirey. 186 p.Gregg, Robert W. (Ed.): International Organization in the Western Hemisphere. Syracuse 1968. Syracuse University Press. VIII, 262 pp. $6.95Jansen, Paul GÜnter : Infrastrukturinvestitionen als Mittel der Regionalpolitik. (Beiträge zur Raumplanung, herausgegeben vom Zentralinstitut für Raumplanung an der Universität Münster, Band 3.) Bielefeld 1968. C. Bertelsmann Verlag. 158 S.King, John A. : Economic Development Projects and Their Appraisal. Cases and Principles from the Experience of the World Bank. Maryland 1967. The Johns Hopkins Press. XII, 530 pp. $15.-Klement, Dieter: Strukturwandlungen des Kapitalstocks nach Anlagearten in Deutschland sett der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts. Tübingen 1967. J. C. B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck). XIV, 98 S.Lorenz, Detlef : Dynamische Tkeorie der internationalen Arbeitsteilung. Ein Beitrag zur Theorie der weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. (Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Abhandlungen, hrsg. von Erich Kosiol und Andreas Paulsen, Heft 25.) Berlin 1967. Duncker & Humblot. 184 S. DM 24.80McCormick, B. J., and Smith, E. Owen (Eds.): The Labour Market — Selected Readings. (Penguin Modern Economics.) Harmondsworth, Middlesex 1968. 393 pp. 9 s.Marshall, Howard D. : The Great Economists: A History of Economic Thought. New York, Toronto, London 1967. Pitman Publishing Corporation. 397 pp. $7.50Mathur, P. N., and Bharadway, R. : Economic Analysis in Input-Output Framework—with Indian Empirical Explorations. Poona 1967. 256 pp. $13.47Meinich, Per : A Monetary General Equilibrium Theory for An International Economy. Oslo 1968. Universitetsforlaget. 176 pp.Meyer, Willi : Wettbewerbsverzerrungen im internationalen Handel. Freiburg i. Br. 1967. Verlag Rombach. 299 S.Morgenstern, O., und Heiss, K. P. : General Report on the Economics of the Peaceful Uses of Underground Nuclear Explosions. Princeton, New Jersey, 1967. Mathematica. VII, 218 pp.Oettle, Karl: Verkehrspolitik. (Sammlung Poeschel, Band 54.) Stuttgart 1967. C. E. Poeschel Verlag. 100 S. DM 6.80Raiffa, Howard: Decision Analysis. Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty. Reading (Mass.)/London 1968. Addison-Wesley. XXIII, 309 pp. 43 s. Recherches récentes sur la fonction de production. Namur 1968. Centre de recherches économiques et sociales du Ceruna, Université catholique de Namur. Collection ↞Economie mathématique et économétrie↠, N0 2. 242 p.DE Roover, Raymond : The Bruges Money Market around 1400, with a statistical supplement by Hyman Sardy. (Verhandelingen van de Koninklijke Vlaamse Academie voor Wetenschappen, Letteren en Schone Kunsten van Belgie, Klasse der Letteren, Jaargang XXX, 1968, No. 63.) Brüssel 1968. Paleis der Academien. 180 pp.Saint Marc, MichÈle : Commerce extérieur de dévelopement — Le cas de la Zone franc. Préface d'André Piatier. (Collection ↞Développement économique↠ sous la direction d'André Piatier, volume XIII.) Paris 1968. Sedes. 367 p.Scheib, Hans H. : Branchenbesonderheiten. Falsche undrichtige wirtschajtspolitische Argumente. (Veröffentlichungen des Forschungsinstituts für Wirtschaftspolitik an der Universität Mainz, Band 22.) Heidelberg 1967. Quelle & Meyer. 194 S.Tarascio, Vincent J. : Pareto's Methodological Approach to Economics. Chapel Hill 1967. The University of North Carolina Press. 153pp.$6.-Turvey, Ralph: Optimal Pricing and Investment in Electricity Supply. An Essay in Applied Welfare Economics. London 1968. George Allen and Unwin. 124 pp. 30 s.Whyte, William F., and Williams, Lawrence K. : Toward an Integrated Theory of Development. New York 1968. New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, Ithaca. 89 pp. $1.50

Notes: The first to draw Soviet economists’ attention—in the early ‘sixties’—to the von Neumann model, hitherto unknown in, and indeed alien to Soviet economics, was Nemchinov. The subject was taken up by several writers: of particular interest is the impact of the construct on the model of'dynamic planning’ designed by Kantorovich and Makarov; this is the theme of the present article. MORTON and Zauberman start from a discussion of the von Neumann-type equilibrium in a long term economic plan. They then turn to several specific issues which have been for some time focal in Soviet planning thought and analyse the significance for them of the von Neumann model. These are in particular the nexus between the pace of the economy's growth and investment efficiency—traditionally recognized as central in the advance for Soviet economy; further the problems of efficiency and profit rates and in general the efficiency parameters (pricing). The authors also discuss the quest for an optimality criterion—from the angle of their theme. The article concludes with precepts for the planner as influenced by the VON Neumann ideas.

Notes: This paper develops a conceptual framework for the systematic analysis of inter-community spillovers and their implications for local expenditure-investment decisions. Spillovers are distinguished on the basis of the effects they have upon the rate of exchange between current goods for private consumption and publicly provided goods. The mechanisms of spillovers—economic interaction, fiscal inter-dependence, and migration—and the concept of community are examined in this context. A diagrammatic analysis is used to demonstrate the influence of spill-overs on the decision making unit's allocation of resources. Methodological issues and problems involved in estimating spillover magnitudes are presented. A case study provides numerical counterparts for the theoretical quantities of the analysis. While emphasis is on publicly provided education in the United States, the framework and methodology should be applicable to other local governments and their services.

Notes: The German author Heinrich Ludwig Lambert Gall (1794-1863) who is characterized as socialist by the authors of histories of economic thought proposed a policy for full employment, based on the multiplier-principle and public expenditures financed by taxes, since 1822. Not Rodbertus but Gall was the first one describing the multiplier scheme. The interpretation of Gall's publications shows his important ideas about interventionism similar to the modern theory of full employment and the activity of the state.

Notes: This paper wants to show that endogenous treatment of interregional capital movements should be an essential element in the analysis of regional development. Capital movements to or from a region are assumed to depend on the real prices of interregionally traded goods and on the supply of labour, technical progress, the development of the demand for goods, and the accumulation of wealth in that region. In this view interregional capital movements are a permanent phenomenon of regional growth and therefore should not be considered in the analysis of regional growth by treating them as exogenous disturbances. To present his view the author is using a neoclassical model based on neoclassical models of interregional (international) trade. By introducing assumptions on competition, factor mobility, etc., which are different from those typically used in neoclassical analysis, he tries to modify the results and to bring them nearer to reality.

Notes: The study is concerned with the optimum savings-assets position of an individual. This optimum position is the outcome of simultaneous utility maximization with respect both to intertemporal consumption flows and to stocks of more than one kind of asset. The optimal conditions of these stock-flow-decisions are stated in the form of a model based on the assumptions that the individual has a multiperiod planning horizon, and that he is confronted with two types of assets. This stock-flow equilibrium is examined 1. for a single period, and 2. for a whole series of periods. Using the Hicksian concepts, revived by Archibald and Lipsey, we speak, in the first case, of weekly equilibrium, and, in the second, of full equilibrium meaning that the individual reaches, after a series of weeks, the invariance over time of his desired stock of assets. This article may also be regarded as an attempt to fill the lacunae in the graphical presentation of Patinkin's‘Utility Theory of Money, Assets, and Savings' (Money, Interest, and Prices, 2nd ed.).

Notes: The essay is written in the light of Lord Keynes' unfamiliar view that Montesquieu is the greatest French economist. The argument emphasizes the turbulent period in European history which inspired the economic philosophy of Montesquieu. Chronologically, the great eighteenth-century philosopher is seen as the link between seventeenth-century mercantilism and the physiocratic doctrines which emerged in France immediately following his death in 1755. Logically, however, Montesquieu is found to belong to a class of his own. It is suggested that his thought, neither essentially mercantilist nor in any sense geocratic, prepared the ground for the sanest liberal developments which later characterized the European scene. The author is sensitive to the tendency of some to interpret Montesquieu's comprehensive thought as reflecting certain contradictions. It is accordingly suggested that any inconsistencies flowing from Montesquieu's preoccupation with the study of political, social and economic phenomena as a whole could reasonably be associated with a society, not a mind, in a state of flux. The paper is concluded with a critical analysis of Montesquieu's historical method, leading its author to confirm the validity of Lord Keynes' view.

Notes: The elaborate fabric of a transnational society and the organization of political power in sovereign states provide a dual system of order, and a source of disorder in the world. Each of the two elements tends to dissolve the other. History shows various models of harmonizing the conflict, but none has had lasting success. International catastrophes have been followed by fresh growth of the two elements and of their vulnerability. After World War II, the world has explored the organization of society and political power in two international camps, led by two great states, an unprecedented effort on that scale. The decay of the effort in the 1960's releases forces that threaten national and international life with a war of all against all. Alternative models show as yet little promise of stemming this process of disintegration, and of reconciling the ambitions for change and for order. Competition among the models is overlaid with competition among states and movements. There is but a slender hope that communities and liberties will be preserved until some kind of civilized government is found for the transnational society.

Notes: In this article the author introduces the government investments into a modified Cobb-Douglas production function. These government investments and the corresponding outlays of the private sector of the economy are divided into a public capital stock and a tertiary capital stock (the immaterial capital). These stocks are introduced into the production function in addition to labor and the private capital stock. Then the different time-lags between the income-effect and the capacity-effect are considered. In order to cope with the problems arising from the use of an analysis of regression, empirical investigations generally use the production function in the linearized form, for which the rates of increases are calculated. At the same time the problem of how to find realistic statistical weights (elasticities of production) arises for the new explaining variables. The author proposes two methods and calculates one (hypothetical) example. Following is a discussion of some empirical problems (time-lags, estimations of the capital-stock, elimination of fluctuations in the use of capacity, etc.). The results suggest strongly that the introduction of government investments into the macro-economic production function is useful tool to reduce the residual factor F.

Notes: The traditional theory of the influence of interest groups on the political process asserts that interest groups will always be formed as soon as there arc a number of people with similar interests. As a consequence all the different ends of the population will be represented in the struggle among these groups, which will, therefore, bring about a fair outcome for all parts of the population. More recently Olson has shown that this theory is wrong because in many cases interest groups will not come into existence even if there are strong latent interests. More important perhaps is Wagner's argument that even without the existence of an interest group the wishes of the respective number of people will be represented in the political process because political parties want to win votes. This argument shows the necessity of demonstrating that the existence of interest groups brings about a more successful representation of the interests in question, if one wants to prove their influence on the political process. Reasons for this influence are the favourable position of interest groups and (or) their members in the information network of society and monopolistic market positions. Both enable them to influence additional voters besides members (and non-members with similar ends) in their voting behaviour. As a consequence the respective interests can be represented with better success among political parties vying for votes than without the existence of interest groups.

Notes: The relationships between international trade and short-term capital placements are shown to be more numerous and complex than is often recognized in the literature. At first instance the trade balance determines a flow of private capital but these flows do not represent movements to equilibrium positions. At least partial repatriation of such flows will be desired by traders but the speed of this repatriation is constrained by the terms on which trade finance has been extended. With full repatriation, a ‘permanent’ change in the trade balance would not lead to a permanent change in private capital flows, but rather to a change in the net stock of short-term assets held abroad due to these constraints on instantaneous portfolio adjustment by traders. The size of the change in this stock is shown to depend on the terms on which trade is financed as well as on the size of the change in the trade balance. The time path of the permanent outward shift is dependent upon these terms as well.The effects just summarized depend upon a divergence between traders’ actual and desired portfolio allocations because of temporary constraints on portfolio adjustment. Longer run changes in the trade balance and absolute volume of trade will affect traders’ convenience and hedging returns from holdings of foreign balances and hence may affect their desired portfolio allocations. While these effects could conceptually go in cither direction, the secular expansion of trade should level to a short-term capital inflow into the United States because of the international role of the dollar.

Notes: This article presents a mathematical model for monopolistic price competition among firms with differentiated products. The conditions which distinguish the Chamberlinian analysis from that of Edgeworth are examined. Product differentiation is not sufficient to guarantee the existence of a stable non-cooperative equilibrium point in terms of price. The relationship among the degree of product variation, amount of capacity, and stability are examined. Explicit formulas are obtained for the non-cooperative equilibrium and the capacity conditions for its existence. The behavior of the model as the degree of differentiation approaches zero and as competition becomes large is examined. This connects the analysis of oligopoly with the analysis of pure competition.

Notes: Decision theory is applied to a situation of conflict which a mother of two actually faced in an isolated home in the American Rocky Mountains. While the father was away on a trip which he thought to last seven days, the mother was bitten by a poisonous snake. She thought the bite to be fatal. To spare her two children, aged two months and two years, the agony of death by starvation, she decided to kill them.The mother faced a decision problem under uncertainty. A theoretical analysis of the situation shows which rational decision would have been optimal. However, a rational decision derived in an objective fashion is not free of subjective elements. Assigning utility measures to the possible types of death of the children, suppositions as to nature's strategies, and the choice of one of four established decision criteria are subjective.The criteria of Wald and Savage picture nature as a hostile opponent wanting to inflict greatest possible injury. The difference between them consists merely in the valuation of the disutility of death. Rational behaviour of the mother calls for selecting that strategy which promises the best of the worst possible outcomes.The Hurwicz criterion can accommodate all variations of nature's attitude, from malignant to benignant. According to the mother's optimism a distribution is supposed over nature's most favourable and unfavourable strategies. The probabilities of all other possible strategies are assumed to be zero.The criterion of Laplace assumes an indifferent nature. All possible strategies of nature are equally likely to eventuate.Three strategies are open to the mother, leave both children alive, kill one child, kill both children. Depending on the utility valuations the mother attaches to the different possible types of death, one of these strategies is optimal. If a decision is arrived by the Wald or Savage criterion a mixed strategy is superior to a pure one. The possibility of the childrens survival through the arrival of a stranger only affects the choice of the mother's strategy if she uses the Laplace criterion.

Notes: The present paper uses ‘optimality analysis’ in order to evaluate the case for protection. It has been found that the general principles of optimal government intervention remain inviolate both in the ‘static’ welfare-economics world and in the context of ‘growth’. The vast existing literature on the subject has been critically examined in order to drive home to the reader the main message of the present paper: that arguments for using protection as a primary instrument to remove domestic distortion, arising either from external economies, monopoly elements in production or a rural-urban wage differential, or from a differential in the rates of transformation between present and future goods are in effect arguments for providing subsidies on domestic production. Also protection is a wasteful policy in order to promote saving and investment. Instead it is far better to achieve this objective more directly by using appropriate fiscal policies. However, under certain conditions, protection may prove beneficial by attracting foreign investors to set up joint projects in the country. The novelty of the general approach of this paper lies in relating the argument to Tinbergen's‘targets—and—instruments’ approach. More emphasis is given in the paper to the infant-industry argument and the use of tariff to attract foreign capital. This last and the growth-promotion-through-saving argument are the two new topics, not covered in the existing literature, that have been discussed at length in this paper.

Notes: This paper reviews the methods and findings of several studies that have been undertaken recently to estimate the interest sensitivity of short-term capital movements. The paper concentrates on the studies of Philip Bell, Peter Kenen, and Jerome Stein, with references to studies by Benjamin Cohen and Robert Gemmill.From the standpoint of balance-of-payments policy, the question of the interest elasticity of short-term capital movements takes on considerable importance. However, the studies conducted thus far do not give a clear-cut answer to this question. Bell finds that, in general, interest rates have only a minor effect on capital flows, whereas Kenen finds them to be highly significant. Stein's work points out drawbacks to the Bell and Kenen studies and proposes remedies.

Notes: Without entering the controversy on the importance of human capital in relation to technological progress, an economist faces a challenging technical problem: how to measure or quantify in monetary terms the significant value of specific skills, both for the individual and for the social entity. This paper attempts to contribute to this objective on two levels: one is to develop an acceptable methodology for evaluation of the incremental contribution of skills; secondly, the paper summarizes preliminary results of a case study on the transfer of skills acquired during military training to the civilian sector in Japan during the post-World War II period.Implications of the study suggest a critical review of by-product contributions of military expenditures. In spite of pejorative evaluations of the military establishment on moral grounds by a segment of public opinion, military training remains a prevasive mechanism for mass development of skills in all nations, particularly in less-developed and socialist countries.The potentiality of tapping the experience and the know-how of military establishments for development of skills transferable for application in a progressively technical society opens opportunity for further scientific exploration and operational exploitation.

Notes: Much of the recent literature on the adequacy of international reserves states that there should be enough reserves in the world so that countries can avoid undesirable and painful adjustment to balance of payments disequilibrium. But this undesirable adjustment, namely deflation and unemployment, is the only adjustment mechanism that exists under a system of fixed exchange rates. It follows from this that no amount of international reserves, short of infinity, can ever be enough. Furthermore, the existing system is one in which there is a built-in bias toward disequilibrium. If countries differ in their willingness to permit some inflation in exchange for full or nearly full employment, the inflation prone countries will tend to incur deficits. They will avoid adjustment—that is, domestic contraction, as long as they have any reserves above what they consider to be minimally acceptable levels. The inflation-avoiding countries, which will tend to be in surplus, will prefer to accumulate reserves rather than permit inflation. In such a world there is likely always to be a ‘shortage' of reserves, whatever the actual level of reserves may be.

Notes: Having defined the terms of trade, the author deals with the restrictions resulting from their use, for instance, in their statistical application, and, he gives a survey of the theories on the subject.He goes on to examine the various views on the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures and on those between developed and developing countries. However, generalizations on the matter are difficult. The widely di-vergent opinions are due in great part to uncomplete and defective statistical material. The trend of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures and between developed and developing countries (which is not necessary the same) has but little significance. It is therefore to be regretted that economic policy recommendations are based on the assumption that the terms of trade will deteriorate. This is in fact what happened in numerous papers prepared for the two UNCTAD-conferences. There is no relationship between the terms of trade and economic development.The author concludes that the use of the terms of trade is to be avoided, except, in the last resort, for the study of a specified country and for a period not longer than some years. Moreover, an appropriate comment, for instance, on the productivity trends and the quantities traded, is necessary. The developing countries have, therefore, no interest in giving priority to the terms of trade.

Notes: The nature of a statistical relationship between wage changes and unemployment rates or its very existence in the United States has stimulated studies with contradictory conclusions. This study concludes that (1) a classic ‘Phillips curve’ can be constructed for the U. S. in the postwar period; (2) recent U. S. inflation has reflected the effects of a ‘Phillips curve’ analysis, more so than only secular updrift; (3) a single variable approach (utilizing the skilled labor force unemployment rate) is more successful in explaining wage and price changes during this period than the multiple variable models which are contradictory in theoretical specification and anyway have not performed successfully in recent years; and (4) that the U. S.‘Phillips curve’ has shifted to the left during the 1960's, making the economy less inflation-prone than has been previously thought.

Notes: In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions T. S. Kuhn argues that the history of the natural sciences has been marked by periodic crises, when the dominant ‘paradigm’ is challenged, rejected, and displaced by a new paradigm. Since the paradigm's functions are both regulative and cognitive, this process has sociological as well as purely epistcmological aspects.With the exception of the Keynesian revolution of the 1930's, there have been no phases of paradigm change in economics quite like those in the natural sciences. This is due mainly to the nature of economic paradigms (or ‘basic’ theories) which are less precise and less liable to falsification. ‘Critical anomalies’ and ‘crucial experiments’ do not arise in economics, as in the natural sciences; and yet the process of paradigm change may serve as an ideal type, which can be used to clarify the interrelationships between the terminological, conceptual, personal, and professional elements involved in the development of economic ideas, especially in such episodes as the emergence of classical (Ricardian) economics, the Methodenslreit, or the marginal utility revolution.

Notes: After World War II the economic, technological and social conditions of modern society have changed fundamentally. These evolutionary changes not only influenced the range of the activity of the State, i. e. the empirical and theoretical object of public finance since its foundation as a branch of Political Economy; it also shows a strong effect on the basic parts of modern public finance, on the normative and positive theory of public economy and on the approach of decision making process in the public sector. On the other hand, new methods and perception of this field essentially contributed to throwing new lights on fiscal functions and objectives of modern government and to solve the central problems. Yet this is only an initial step in applying the results of fiscal theory to the interdependent market and public economy.After a period of stagnation a process of theoretical foundation and economizing of this field has begun, preliminarily resulting in an amalgamation of fiscal and economic theory and in an incorporation of fiscal into economic policy. This merger logically raised the question how far this branch is to be considered a proper field of the tripartite Political Economy which—as is wellknown—is still taken as a basis of our academic institutions as well as of many textbooks. Along with the methods of research and theorizing the questions and thus the problems of this branch have changed to a degree that its traditional framework and even its name have become questionable. The label ‘public finance’ today does not cover essential parts or aspects of the objects in theory and practice sufficiently. We are interested in the principles of public economy (not primarily of public finance) and the interrelations to the market economy, the problems thus ranging from activating and allocating a nation's resources to distributing income and wealth and, to stabilizing internal and external growth. The central aim of modern public finance is to make transparent the circular flow and the interdependence within public sector and between market and public economy by budget- and market theory in order to obtain results which can be successfully applied to a rational economic and general policy. The idea of an autonomous theory of public finance has indeed been overcome, although the peculiarity of political decision making renders a comprehensive theory of a nation's economy more difficult in which government activity is subdued to economic principles.

Notes: The essay examines the influence of capital imports on the structure of a developing economy. A significant and persistent capital import will result in a relatively low foreign exchange rate. Consequently, the share of internationally tradable goods and services in national product tends to be low. This will be reflected in a higher share of services and in a smaller share of agriculture and manufacturing in national product and in the labour force of an import surplus economy as compared with a balancing economy with the same internal resources. International comparisons show larger differences in productivity for tradable goods and services than for non-tradable goods and services. Considerable gains can, therefore, be obtained in low-productivity countries by enlarging the production of non-tradables and by limiting the production of tradables to those with a high comparative advantage. Thus, the average capital/product ratio tends to be smaller and average product per employed person larger, when there are significant and persistent import surpluses as compared with a situation in which international accounts are balanced. This, together with the larger investments made possible by capital imports, will increase the growth rate.But the import surplus economy becomes structurally dependent on capital imports. To be able to balance its international accounts it must adjust its structures, i.e. increase the share of tradable goods and services in national product so that it can replace import surplus by larger exports and by import substitutes and increase domestic savings. To achieve this a deliberate government policy is necessary.

Notes: It may be that an element of contradiction is integral to any outstanding literary work. A major writer, in presenting one philosophical viewpoint or attitude directly, cannot help, by virtue of his sensitivity and breadth of awareness, but present the alternative angle indirectly. Nevertheless, although the narrative may shuttle ambiguously between two such poles, there should finally be no doubt as to which side of the argument the author inclines to. A limited degree of ambiguity makes for vitality. A total ambiguity makes for inferior art. If this criterion is acceptable the reputation of Melville's Billy Budd, Sailor may deserve revaluation. Critical opinion, which turns upon Melville's attitude towards Captain Vere, appears to have reached a stalemate, in spite of the recent publication of the Hayford-Sealts authoritative edition of the story which the editors hope ‘will narrow the ground of disagreement and widen that of understanding’. A division still exists between the ‘straight’ readers who see Vere as exonerated and the ironists who believe that Melville is subtly undercutting the validity of Vere's stand.

Notes: Though Mark Twain's phrase ‘the showiest kind of book-talk’ undoubtedly represents the apogee of the attacks on Cooper's diction in general, the grandiloquent speeches of Cooper's Indians had drawn the fire of the proponents of verisimilitude from the earliest. The North American Review, with The Last of the Mohicans before it, criticized the author's idealization of Indian speech and character (‘We should be glad to know, for example, in what tribe, or in what age of Indian history, such a civilized warrior as Uncas ever flourished?’). Nor, two years later, did the reviewing of one of Cooper's sea novels seem an inappropriate occasion for a fresh onslaught upon his Indians: ‘This bronze noble of nature, is then made to talk like Ossian for whole pages, and measure out hexameters, as though he had been practising for a poetic prize’. Adding weightily to the chorus, as the years succeeded, would be the Indian fighter Cass, who expressed ‘regret that [Cooper] did not cross the Allegany, instead of the Atlantic, and survey the red man in the forests and prairies’, as well as the author of The Oregon Trail and historian of the eighteenth century's struggle against the Five Nations: ‘We do not allude to his Indian characters, which it must be granted, are for the most part either superficially or falsely drawn; while the long conversations which he puts into their mouths, are as truthless as they are tiresome’.

Notes: The electoral events of 1968 constitute a classical case of the vanity of political prediction. In 1964, in the wake of Mr Johnson's crowning mercy of November, political scientists were affirming the end of the Republican Party; the most that was to be looked for in the future was a one-and-a-half party system. In 1962 it was universally agreed amongst the politically sophisticated that Mr Nixon, by losing the California governor's race and, worse still, by publicly displaying his wounds and his chagrin, had wrecked all chances of a presidential nomination. In 1968, even after the New Hampshire primary, it was the conventional wisdom that Senator McCarthy's was, for all its gallantry, a children's crusade, of no serious significance for the course of American politics. Dis aliter visum. The two-party system fully reasserted itself, even in a three-party year; Mr Nixon easily won the nomination and, by a hair's breadth, the presidency; finally, Senator McCarthy, despite his failure to win either, decisively affected the course of American policy in Vietnam, was probably responsible in large degree for Mr Johnson's abdication and may, by his own autumnal aloofness, have tipped the electoral balance from Humphrey to Nixon.

Notes: The American expeditionary force against Santiago, which sailed from Tampa, Florida, on 14 June 1898, comprised some 800 officers and 16,000 men, plus a number of civilian clerks and stenographers, teamsters, packers and stevedores. The troops were honoured by the presence of eighty-nine newspaper correspondents, and eleven foreign military observers. The colourful exploits of the correspondents are well known, but the activities and opinions of the foreign attachés were by their very nature strictly confidential. Happily, the reports of the British military and naval representatives who accompanied the Santiago expedition have survived the intervening years, and when viewed in conjunction with the observations of the British military attaché with the Spanish forces in Cuba they shed interesting light on the conduct of the war.

Notes: This paper and the one that follows it were originally prepared for the 1968 Conference of the British Association for American Studies at Cambridge. They are companion pieces, and each was designed to outline initially an interdisciplinary approach to literary study and sociology, and then to follow this with an analysis of Stephen Crane's Maggie which does not make any claim necessarily to have achieved fulfilment of the precepts set out in the preface.

Notes: Prohibition was a fascinating episode in American history which has attracted the attention of a number of writers. This paper does not seek to present any new historical evidence. Perhaps, in history as well as in photography, over-enlargement can lead to loss of definition, so the object is to assess what evidence is appropriate in answering various questions about Prohibition.

Notes: Few critics have attempted to answer the question most often asked by those who grew up to find the revolutionary young poets of the Twenties embalmed as Elder Statesmen of the Fifties. Is Eliot really a great poet? What are the indisputably major poems and how do we read them? Why—a question so far ignored by all Eliot commentators—why has Eliot had so little influence on the younger English poets? This last question is even more relevant now that we can see that 1918–55 produced in England little more than a few good but essentially minor poets. And the fact that the emphasis must now be placed on (for example) Empson, Graves and Betjeman, rather than the fashionables with which we were plagued in our youth, does not render the question any the less relevant. There are certainly points of difficulty in Eliot's technique that make it possible to understand at least some of the resistance to his poetry when it first started to come out. J. C. Squire's review of The Waste Land is well enough known: ‘a grunt would serve equally well’. And, as Mrs Leavis has pointed out, George Gordon's inaugural lecture as Professor of Poetry at Oxford was little more than a series of gibes at Eliot as representative of the ‘moderns’. Still, these men were not fools. Granted that their reaction was a mistaken one, ought we not to enquire how exactly the mistake came about?

Notes: Political scientists in the United States have in recent years become concerned with analysis of the rights and responsibilities of political opposition. This interest was initially stimulated by the much-quoted, and much-maligned, report of the Committee on Political Parties of the American Political Science Association in 1950 entitled Toward a More Responsible Two-Party System. It has been supplemented by the volume edited by Robert Dahl, Political Oppositions in Western Democracies. Academic rationale for this interest is reflected in the paradox posed by Dahl, who, having cited ‘ the right of an organized opposition to appeal for votes against the government in elections and parliament’ as being one of ‘the three great milestones in the development of democratic institutions’, is then obliged to admit that in the United States ‘it is never easy to distinguish “opposition” from “government”’, and that ‘it is exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to identify the opposition’. Opposition in the United States political system is nonstructural because of the multiple access points for influence, and opportunities for preventing or inhibiting governmental action are numerous. No single institution illustrates this fact better than Congress. In speaking of Congress, commentators do not talk about ‘the opposition’. They may refer to ‘the minority party’ (and ‘the majority party’), yet even these terms cannot be used at times when the Senate and House are not controlled by the same party. Moreover, internal organizational and procedural patterns in the contemporary Congress allow many opportunities for minority coalitions to check executive policies favoured by a majority coalition in Congress, and such coalitions are often bipartisan.

Notes: We all well know that American Studies offers a particularly fascinating and complex example of the difficulties and challenges involved in an interdisciplinary and area studies approach. There may, indeed, be an element of chance in the fact that this touches so sharply on the links that can be established between literature and other studies (literature and sociology, literature and history): the chance that literature was somehow in there from the beginning, in the early days of the subject, and has still held its place in the area-studies map. So, when Henry Nash Smith asked us once if American Studies could develop a method, he looked for his answer in the intervening ground between literary criticism and sociology; and though he found it hard to arrive at his desired method, he suggested that it would lie in some form of cultural anthropology. The divisions between the various disciplines–above all, the varying roles they allowed to consciousness in their interpretation of society and culture–seemed to him to pose profound problems. So, he said, a new method would have to come piecemeal, through a kind of principled opportunism; but he did assume that we could want to turn to works of literature, and the complex interactions between a writer and his environment that constitute a whole literary career, as an important centre of the study, a significant expression of the culture. The problems in fact are large, since in liberal-democratic society literature performs some of the most complex contours of art that have ever existed. But that very fact is part of the interest of the problem and, while Professor Smith's approach raises certain difficulties, on some of which the first part of the present argument turns, I am happy to take the issue raised–that literature can be seen as a social manifestation, that as a creative manifestation it does uniquely reveal central aspects of a culture–as a very important one.

Notes: Calvin Coolidge became President on the morning of 3 August 1923. He was to hold that office for five years, six months, and thirty days, during which time he would have a splendid opportunity to secure the destiny of his party. Some of the activities of several of the more seedy characters of the Harding Administration were about to become public knowledge, while the one-interest basis on which Republican power rested was becoming increasingly obvious. In the scandals which followed his accession, Coolidge acquitted himself well, the ‘anti-propaganda’ technique he adopted in fighting the revelations bringing him, it might be argued, an even greater victory at the polls in 1924 than he otherwise would have received. But the party's destiny went well beyond the Twenties, and the success, or lack of it, which would greet the Republicans in the decades beyond depended in large fashion on Coolidge's efforts to pry his party from the rut in which it had firmly planted itself. For by the time Coolidge entered the White House the Republicans had violated a basic canon of practical politics by allowing themselves to become the spokesmen of one interest, to the neglect of those others which, if they ever got together, could easily put an end to Republican dominance. More broadly, the party by this time was a rather exclusive vehicle in which, oblivious to others around them, serenely rode whites, Anglo-Saxons, and Protestants. There were others in this vehicle but by the post-war period they were mostly in the rumble seat, and none too happy about it.

Notes: In his introductory essay to The Stature of Theodore Dreiser, Alfred Kazin has noted that the legend that Sister Carrie had been suppressed by the publisher's wife became so dear to the hearts of the rising generation of the twentieth century that ‘Mrs Doubleday became a classic character, the Carrie Nation of the American liberal epos, her ax forever lifted against “the truth of American life”’. Equally dear to the hearts of the new generation of Americans was the belief that both the puritanical publishers and the equally puritanical reviewers tried to prevent the ‘immoral’ Sister Carrie from coming before the American public. That this belief is still widely held is testified to by the recent studies of Philip L. Gerber, W. A. Swanberg, and Yoshinobu Hakutani.

Notes: Racial and religious tension and conflict in New York City have dramatically increased over the past few years. Charges of ‘black anti-Semitism’ and ‘white racism’ abound, while meaningful communication between the races is less than it has ever been. The general context within which the situation has developed has been that of the growth of the Black Power concept and the resulting black challenge to the white economic, political and educational power structures. This challenge, so different from the glorious days of the civil rights decade of the 1950s when blacks and whites marched together in the South, represents a realization among black leaders that the basic problems of jobs, housing and education in the urban ghettos of America have to be solved before there can be any real progress of black Americans as a group. This, however, brings them into conflict with whites with vested interests to protect, and the resulting controversy has been bitter. An example of the break-up of the old civil rights coalition following the presentation of a challenge to white self-interest can be seen in the mobilization of the majority of Reform Democrats of the FDR–Woodrow Wilson Club to defeat plans to pair PS84, a predominantly white elementary school, and a nearby black and Puerto Rican school. David Rogers, in 110 Livingston Street, quotes one disappointed club member saying: ‘All their old liberalism went by the boards. They are liberal in the abstract, and when the problem is far away, say in Selma, Jackson or Birmingham, but not for their children or their schools and neighbourhoods.’ The same, as we shall see, could be said of the ‘liberal’ United Federation of Teachers.

Notes: Shortly before America's involvement in the First World War there appeared a series of works of social and cultural criticism remarkable for their range and sophistication. The familiar list includes Herbert Croly's The Promise of American Life (1909) and Progressive Democracy (1914), Walter Weyl's The New Democracy (1912), Walter Lippmann's Preface to Politics (1913) and Drift and Mastery (1914), Van Wyck Brooks's The Wine of the Puritans (1909), America's Coming of Age (1915), and H. G. Wells (1915), and Randolph Bourne's Youth and Life (1913), The Gary Schools (1916) and Education and Living (1917). The authors of these books were involved as well in the development of vehicles for social criticism such as The New Republic and The Seven Arts which continued and institutionalized the preoccupations of their books.

Notes: The post-Pound, post-Carlos Williams movement in American verse, represented by such poets as Charles Olson, Robert Creeley, Robert Duncan and Ed Dorn, has for the most part been received with a deadly critical hush, particularly in England. Apart from the timely special issue of Ian Hamilton's Review in 1964 on Black Mountain Poetry, together with some discreet championing by Eric Mottram and Donald Davie, attention to the New Verse has been largely confined to the off-campus underground scene. The Black Mountaineers are generally thought to be the exclusive province of the Fulcrum Press, Calder and Boyars, the International Times and a tiny circulating broadsheet published from Cambridge called The English Intelligencer. But this critical neglect is, I think, a symptom of a genuine distress in literature departments of universities about the nature of contemporary verse. On the one hand, we have acquired a sophisticated terminology for discussing most of the verbal objects we have learned to call poems: this terminology entails certain assumptions about the working of language itself–that, for instance, the semantic value of an utterance is housed entirely in the words that compose that utterance, that language is a collection of multiply-suggestive symbols, that the operation of language is rational, logical and continuous. On the other hand, we have been recently confronted with a body of verse which either defies, or comes off very badly from, our conventional terminology. Its most striking features have been a metrical, syntactical and logical discontinuity; an insistence that language works, not symbologically, but phenomenologically, as a happening in time and space; that the silence in which a poem occurs has as great a semantic value as the words which are imposed on that silence. Given this battery of opposed assumptions, it is hardly surprising that the case of the New American Poetry offers the unengaging spectacle of criticism and poetics confronting one another with at best a dubious silence, at worst, bared teeth.

Notes: As other analysts have suggested in different ways, the Cultural Revolution involves differences of emphasis among Chinese leaders over basic directional choices for the society at large: whether Maoist-style politics (or ideology) can continue to “take command” or must yield at least equal place to the practical problems and limitations involved in fixing priorities and setting goals; whether radical Maoism befits a China in transition or must be modified if China is to realize its historically based claim to great power status; or whether China must inevitably “change colour” or can remain ideologically “pure red” even in the throes of modernization.

Notes: In 1961 Robert C. Tucker argued, contrary to the then prevailing assumption of the uniform nature of totalitarian systems, that such systems could be classified into several different types for purposes of analysis. Subsequently, H. Gordon Skilling applied interest group theory to his study of Communist politics and, by doing so, also called into question the case for regarding totalitarian governments as a single category of states possessing unique attributes. Skilling asserted that Communist states cannot be considered “conflictless,” as is sometimes assumed, but can be more adequately understood in terms of the competing social forces commonly found in non-Communist societies. Because of the special, but varying, limits imposed by a central leadership elite on the public expression of conflict in the several Communist-run countries, he added, Communist political parties could play special and quite diverse roles. His thesis contrasts with that of Carl J. Friedrich, which stresses the uniformity of the party's role under totalitarianism. According to Professor Friedrich, in his discussions of “the unique character of totalitarian society,” the presence of a single mass party is a common feature of all totalitarian politics, and is “typically either superior to, or completely commingled with the bureaucratic organization.” While Friedrich in his later work, written jointly with Zbigniew K. Brzezinski, acknowledges that “within the broad pattern of similarities, there are many significant variations” in totalitarian dictatorships, the authors' emphasis is on the novelty and uniqueness of these dictatorships. They state:

Notes: China's bitter population dilemma is clearly summarized in just one short statement from the People's Daily: “We insist on family planning, but generally speaking we think it is a good thing to have a large population.” For the past two decades China's population policy has been shrouded in secrecy, has been expressed only through Communist polemic and has suffered from apparent indecision and consequent vacillations. Official thinking on this subject is almost never expressed in direct statements and proclamations. It must be gleaned from casual remarks by Chinese leaders, from newspaper and magazine articles and official radio broadcasts, which usually discuss implementation but omit reference to the initial decision, and from visitors to China who describe the visible signs that suggest a particular policy is currently in effect.

Notes: “Oppose the strategy of striking with two ‘fists’ in two directions at the same time, and uphold the strategy of striking with one ‘fist’ in one direction at one time.”This is a good year for looking back at the triangular relationship between China, the Soviet Union and the United States—and not only because it is the twentieth anniversary of the People's Republic. For it is also a year which has seen the contradictions in this relationship sharpened to an extreme and almost satirical degree.

Notes: Some aspects of the Chinese People's Republic have been explained as reversions to traditional Chinese patterns. There are resemblances between the Chinese Communist ideal for society and the traditional Confucian ideal. Both assume that, in a properly ordered society, there should be universal acceptance of a true doctrine and universal agreement on what is right. Paul Linebarger, describing the Confucian ideal, wrote, “Government, once cheng ming has been set in motion, is not a policy making body. There is no question of policy, no room for disagreement, no alternative; what is right is apparent. ... government needs only to administer for ... the maintenance of the ideology. Once right views are established, no individual is entitled to think otherwise. ... control of the individual will devolves upon persons making up his immediate social environment. ...” One can compare this with the frequent Chinese Communist statements about the universal validity of Marxism-Leninism and the thought of Mao Tse-tung and the continually appearing assumption that a process of discussion must end with unanimous agreement on what is right. Also, control of the individual by persons in his immediate social environment is a characteristic feature of the Chinese Communist system.

Notes: Few behavioural attributes rank higher in the Chinese Communist system of values than that of activism (chi-chi-hsing). In apparent continuity with the Leninist tradition, the Chinese Communists have made the activist the archetype of their new political man, and a key operational figure in their system of political control. This analysis is an exploration of the Chinese Communist use of the concept of activism as a political value, and of the role that the activist plays in Party efforts to penetrate and control Chinese society.