Call number:
PIK N 456-18-91895
;
AWI A5-18-91895
Type of Medium:
Monograph available for loan
Pages:
xv, 569 Seiten
,
Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
ISBN:
9780128117149
Language:
English
Note:
Contents:
Contributors. -
Preface. -
Acknowledgements. -
PART I SETTING THE SCENE. -
1. Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson. -
1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting. -
2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting. -
3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. -
4 Structure of This Book. -
2. Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza. -
1 Introduction. -
2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction. -
3 The Evolution of NWP Technique. -
4 Enhancement of Predictable signals. -
5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction. -
6 Expanding the forecast skill Horizon. -
7 Concludmg Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting. -
Acknowledgements. -
3. Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Data and Methods. -
3 Results. -
4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks. -
4. Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using Its Conservation Properties. -
3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and Its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability. -
4 Conclusion. -
Acknowledgments. -
PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY. -
5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough. -
1 Introduction. -
2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index. -
3 Observed MJO Structure. -
4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather. -
5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation. -
6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models. -
7 MJO Prediction. -
8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction. -
Acknowledgments. -
6. Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson. -
1 Introduction and Motivation. -
2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations. -
3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band. -
4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction. -
5 Concluding Remarks. -
Acknowledgments. -
7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Christiana Stan. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere. -
3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics. -
4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions. -
5 Summary and Discussion. -
Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4.2. -
8. Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction. -
3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models. -
4 Predictability and Prediction. -
5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction. -
9. Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Data and Models. -
3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. -
4 Local Tropospheric Response. -
5 Remote Tropospheric Response. -
6 Impact on Ocean Circulation. -
7 Implications for S2S Prediction. -
8 Summary and Conclusions. -
Acknowledgments. -
10. The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System. -
3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability. -
4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale. -
5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal - Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models. -
6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability. -
7 Concluding Remarks. -
Acknowledgments. -
11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coup ling in the Tropics. -
3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics. -
4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling. -
5 Summary and Outlook. -
PART Ill S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING. -
12. Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity / Yuhei Takaya. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast. -
3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble. -
4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration. -
5 Reforecast Configuration. -
6 Summary and Concluding Remarks. -
Acknowledgments. -
13. Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles / Roberto Buizza. -
1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction Is an Initial Value Problem. -
2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States. -
3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation. -
4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation. -
5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods. -
6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future. -
7 Summary and Key Lessons. -
14. GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Global CRM. -
3 Superparameterized GCM. -
4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection. -
5 Summary and Conclusion. -
Acknowledgments. -
15. Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration. -
3 Regression Methods. -
4 Forecast Combination. -
5 Concluding Remarks. -
Acknowledgments. -
16. Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales / Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies. -
3 Observational References. -
4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures. -
5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices. -
6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification. -
PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS. -
17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes / Frédérik Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael Deflorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events. -
3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events. -
4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events. -
5 Conclusions. -
18. Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Why Sub-seasonal?. -
3 Case Study: Peru El Niño. -
4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts. -
5 Conclusions. -
19. Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew Degennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins. -
1 Introduction. -
2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement. -
3 Guiding principles for improved communication Practices. -
4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research. -
20. Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases / A.
Location:
A 18 - must be ordered
Location:
AWI Reading room
Branch Library:
PIK Library
Branch Library:
AWI Library
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