ALBERT

Note: Contents Preface Acknowledgements 1 Introduction Terms and abbreviations 2 The biogeographlcal setting Geology, physiography, and surface materials The structural framework Pleistocene geology Bioclimates Arctic and its three subzones Subarctic zone Boreal zone Eastern temperate zone Grassland zone Pacific and Cordilleran zones 3 Autecology and pollen representation Introduction Transcontinental, primarily boreal taxa Eastern, primarily temperate taxa Pacific-Cordilleran taxa Arctic taxa Modern regional pollen spectra The Western Interior The eastern plains transect The Pacific-Cordilleran transect General comments on the modern pollen spectra 4 Full-glacial refugla The southern refugia Pacific-Cordilleran refugia Interior plains and eastern region The Beringian refugia 5 Eastern Canada-fossil record and reconstruction Introduction The late glacial - 12,700 to 10,000 yr BP Southern Quebec and New Brunswick Maritime Canada The Great Lakes Basin Vegetation reconstruction The Holocene - 10,000 yr BP to the present Southern Quebec and New Brunswick The Maritimes, Labrador, and Northern Quebec The Great Lakes Vegetation reconstruction Boreal region 6 The Western Interior Sites near the forest-grassland transition Sites within the modern boreal forest Sites near the modern forest-tundra boundary 7 Pacific-Cordilleran region Southern Pacific zone Southern Cordilleran zone Northern Pacific zone Northern Cordilleran zone 8 Vegetation reconstruction and palaeoenvironments Introduction Origins and history Eastern temperate forests Boreal forest Grasslands and parklands Pacific-Cordilleran complex Tundra (arctic) Palaeoenvironmental controls Climate The Milankovitch model Full-glacial conditions Late-glacial and Holocene Fire Pathogens Paludification Problems for the future Climate disequilibrium Spatial resolution Pollen source area Concluding comments Appendix References Index

Note: Contents Preface PART I Framework of Climate Science CHAPTER 1 Overview of Climate Science Climate and Climate Change 1-1 Geologic Time Tools of Climate Science: Temperature Scales 1-2 How This Book Is Organized Development of Climate Science 1-3 How Scientists Study Climate Change Overview of the Climate System 1-4 Components of the Climate System 1-5 Climate Forcing 1-6 Climate System Responses 1-7 Time Scales of Forcing Versus Response 1-8 Differing Response Rates and Climate-System Interactions 1-9 Feedbacks in the Climate System Climate Interactions and Feedbacks: Positive and Negative Feedbacks CHAPTER 2 Climate Archives, Data, and Models Climate Archives, Dating, and Resolution 2-1 Types of Archives 2-2 Dating Climate Records 2-3 Climatic Resolution Climatic Data 2-4 Biotic Data 2-5 Geological and Geochemical Data Climate Models 2-6 Physical Climate Models 2-7 Geochemical Models PART II Tectonic-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 3 CO2and Long-Term Climate Greenhouse Worlds Faint Young Sun Paradox Carbon Exchanges Between Rocks and the Atmosphere 3-1 Volcanic Input of Carbon from Rocks to the Atmosphere 3-2 Removal of CO2 from the Atmosphere by Chemical Weathering Climatic Factors That Control Chemical Weathering Is Chemical Weathering Earth’s Thermostat? 3-3 Greenhouse Role of Water Vapor Is Life the Ultimate Control on Earth’s Thermostat? 3-4 Gaia Hypothesis Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon Subcycle Was There a “Thermostat Malfunction”? A Snowball Earth? CHAPTER Plate Tectonics and Long-Term Climate Plate Tectonics 4-1 Structure and Composition of Tectonic Plates 4-2 Evidence of Past Plate Motions Polar Position Hypothesis 4-3 Glaciations and Continental Positions Since 500 Myr Ago Modeling Climate on the Supercontinent Pangaea 4-4 Input to the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Brief Glaciation 440 Myr Ago 4-5 Output from the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Tectonic Control of CO2 Input: BLAG Spreading-Rate Hypothesis 4-6 Control of CO2 Input by Seafloor Spreading 4-7 Initial Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis Tectonic Control of CO2Removal: Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis 4-8 Rock Exposure and Chemical Weathering 4-9 Case Study: The Wind River Basin of Wyoming 4-10 Uplift and Chemical Weathering 4-11 Case Study: Weathering in the Amazon Basin 4-12 Weathering: Both a Climate Forcing and a Feedback? CHAPTER 5 Greenhouse Climate What Explains the Warmth 100 Myr Ago? 5-1 Model Simulations of the Cretaceous Greenhouse 5-2 What Explains the Data-Model Mismatch? 5-3 Relevance of Past Greenhouse Climate to the Future Sea Level Changes and Climate 5-4 Causes of Tectonic-Scale Changes in Sea Level 5-5 Effect of Changes in Sea Level on Climate Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Calculating Changes in Sea Level Asteroid Impact Large and Abrupt Greenhouse Episode near 50 Myr Ago CHAPTER 6 From Greenhouse to Icehouse: The Last 50 Million Years Global Climate Change Since 50 Myr Ago 6-1 Evidence from Ice and Vegetation 6-2 Evidence from Oxygen Isotope Measurements 6-3 Evidence from Mg/Ca Measurements Do Changes in Geography Explain the Cooling? 6-4 Gateway Hypothesis 6-5 Assessment of Gateway Changes Hypotheses Linked to Changes in CO2 6-6 Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis 6-7 Evaluation of the Uplift Weathering Hypothesis Climate DebateTiming of the Uplift in Western North America Future Climate Change at Tectonic Scales Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon: Monterrey Hypothesis PART III Orbital-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 7 Astronomical Control of Solar Radiation Earth’s Orbit Today 7-1 Earth’s Tilted Axis of Rotation and the Seasons 7-2 Earth’s Eccentric Orbit: Distance Between Earth and Sun Long-Term Changes in Earth’s Orbit 7-3 Changes in Earth’s Axial Tilt Through Time Tools of Climate Science: Cycles and Modulation 7-4 Changes in Earth’s Eccentric Orbit Through Time 7-5 Precession of the Solstices and Equinoxes Around Earth’s Orbit Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Earth’s Precession as a Sine Wave Changes in Insolation Received on Earth 7-6 Insolation Changes by Month and Season 7-7 Insolation Changes by Caloric Seasons Searching for Orbital-Scale Changes in Climatic Records 7-8 Time Series Analysis 7-9 Effects of Undersampling Climate Records 7-10 Tectonic-Scale Changes in Earth’s Orbit CHAPTER 8 Insolation Control of Monsoons Monsoon Circulations 8-1 Orbital-Scale Control of Summer Monsoons Orbital-Scale Changes in North African Summer Monsoons 8-2 “Stinky Muds” in the Mediteranean 8-3 Freshwater Diatoms in the Tropical Atlantic 8-4 Upwelling in the Equatorial Atlantic Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis: Regional Assessment 8-5 Cave Speleothems in China and Brazil 8-6 Phasing of Summer Monsoons Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Insolation-Driven Monsoon Responses: Chronometer for Tuning Monsoon Forcing Earlier in Earth’s History 8-7 Monsoons on Pangaea 200 Myr Ago 8-8 Joint Tectonic and Orbital Control of Monsoons CHAPTER 9 Insolation Control of Ice Sheets Milankovitch Theory: Orbital Control of Ice Sheets Modeling the Behavior of Ice Sheets 9-1 Insolation Control of Ice Sheet Size 9-2 Ice Sheets Lag Behind Summer Insolation Forcing 9-3 Delayed Bedrock Response Beneath Ice Sheets Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Ice Volume Response to Insolation 9-4 Full Cycle of Ice Growth and Decay 9-5 Ice Slipping and Calving Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet History 9-6 Ice Sheet History: δ18O Evidence 9-7 Confirming Ice Volume Changes: Coral Reefs and Sea Level Is Milankovich’s Theory the Full Answer? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Sea Level on Uplifting Islands CHAPTER 10 Orbital-Scale Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Methane Ice Cores 10-1 Drilling and Dating Ice Cores 10-2 Verifying Ice-Core Measurements of Ancient Air 10-3 Orbital-Scale Carbon Transfers: Carbon Isotopes Orbital-Scale Changes in CO2 10-4 Where Did the Missing Carbon Go? 10-5 δ13C Evidence of Carbon Transfer How Did the Carbon Get into the Deep Ocean? 10-6 Increased CO2 Solubility in Seawater 10-7 Biological Transfer from Surface Waters A Closer Look at Climate Science: Using δ13C to Measure Carbon Pumping 10-8 Changes in Deep-Water Circulation Orbital-Scale Changes in CH4 Orbital-Scale Climatic Roles: CO2and CH4 CHAPTER 11 Orbital-Scale Interactions, Feedbacks, and Unsolved Problems Climatic Responses Driven by the Ice Sheets Mystery of the 41,000-Year Glacial World 11-1 Did Insolation Really Vary Mainly at 41,000 Years? 11-2 Interhemispheric Cancellation of 23,000-Year Ice Volume Responses? 11-3 CO2 Feedback at 41,000 Years? Mystery of the ~100,000-Year Glacial World 11-4 How Is the Northern Ice Signal Transferred South? Why did the Northern Ice Sheets Vary at ~100,000 Years? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Link Between Forcing and the Time Constants of Ice Response 11-5 Ice Interactions with Bedrock 11-6 Ice Interactions with the Local Environment 11-7 Ice Interactions with Greenhouse Gases PART IV Deglacial Climate Change CHAPTER 12 Last Glacial Maximum Glacial World: More Ice, Less Gas 12-1 Project CLIMAP: Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum 12-2 How Large Were the Ice Sheets? 12-3 Glacial Dirt and Winds Testing Model Simulations Against Biotic Data 12-4 COHMAP: Data-Model Comparisons 12-5 Pollen: Indicator of Climate on the Continents 12-6 Using Pollen for Data-Model Comparisons Data-Model Comparisons of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-7 Model Simulations of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-8 Climate Changes near the Northern Ice Sheets 12-9 Climate Changes far from the Northern Ice Sheets How Cold Were the Glacial Tropics? 12-10 Evidence for a Small Tropical Cooling 12-11 Evidence for a Large Tropical Cooling 12-12 Actual Cooling Was Medium-Small CHAPTER 13 Climate During and Since the Last Deglaciation Fire and Ice: Shift in the Balance of Power 13-1 When Did the Ice Sheets Melt? 13-2 Coral Reefs and Rising Sea Level 13-3 Glitches in the Deglaciation: Deglacial Two-Step To

Note: CONTENTS COMPOSITION OF THE OFFICE CONTENTS INTRODUCTION I. THE POLAR REGIONS: AN URGENT NEED FOR PROTECTION A. EXTREME BUT FRAGILE REGIONS 1. The Arctic Ocean 2. Antarctica B. FRANCE'S RESPONSIBILITY IN THE ANTARCTICA TREATY 1. The origins of the treaty and the Antarctic system 2. Mining a suspended issue 3. Tourism: a new peaceful threat? II. THE POLES: THEIR KEY ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE A. UNDERSTANDING PAST CLIMATES TO UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 1. Recent ice cores from Greenland 2. lce cores from Antarctica 3. Ocean core samples: the transpolar link 4. The future of glacial core sampling B. THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION 1. The general circulation system 2. The importance of the creation of cold, deep waters 3. The Antarctic Ocean, a carbon sink C. THE POLAR REGIONS AT THE HEART OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 1. Will the Arctic ice shelf disappear in the summer? 2. Will Greenland melt completely? 3. Can a diagnosis be made concerning the assessment of Antarctica's mass? III. FRANCE'S FIRST-CLASS BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH A. AN EXCEPTIONAL HERITAGE 1. A unique geographic situation 2. 40 to 50 years of continuous observations B. ADAPTING TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS 1. Adapting to climate change 2. Understanding the adaptation to extreme environments C. INNOVATIVE RESEARCH 1. The equipment of animals 2. Hormonal, molecular and genetic research 3. The implications for the organization of research IV. OBSERVING THE EARTH, OBSERVING THE UNIVERSE A. OBSERVATORIES FOR THE EARTH AND THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 1. Seismology 2. Measuring gravity and terrestrial magnetism 3. Studying the stratosphere and monitoring the ozone layer '1. Observing the ionosphere B. ANTARCTIC ASTRONOMY: A NEW FIELD 1. Recognizing this fast-growing discipline 2. Concordia: the best site in the world/or astronomic observations? 3. Searching for meteorites in Antarctica 4. Measuring cosmic radiation V. PREPARING THE SPACE MISSIONS IN ANTARCTICA A. PREPARING AND VALIDATING THE SATELLITE MISSIONS 1. Space and the polar regions: preparation complementarity 2. Validating on the ground observations made from space B. PREPARING MANNED SPACE FLIGHTS AND MOON OR MARS-BASED STATIONS 1. Concordia - a unique research site 2. Studying behaviour in an extreme environment 3. Physiological studies C. TESTING EXPLORATION MATERIAL 1. American examples and projects 2. European perspectives VI. FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE POLAR REGIONS A. DEVELOPING FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE ARCTIC, STRENGTHENING ITS PRESENCE IN ANTARCTICA 1. Developing France's Arctic presence 2. Strengthening our presence in the southern regions B. IPEV (THE FRENCH PAUL-EMILE VICTOR INSTITUTE), AN AGENCY OF MEANS VII. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: A NECESSITY AND A GOAL A. HOW TO ENCOURAGE A EUROPEAN PROCESS? 1. The European Union: a sufficient framework? 2. The practical and political limitations of cooperation 3. Towards an Italian-German-French engine? B. WHAT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION FOR FRANCE ON THE EVE OF THE IPY? 1. Excellence, proximity and longevity: three key criteria for cooperation 2. Developing a network for the stations VIII. THE RAPPORTEUR'S CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS 1. Strategic regions 2. Regions to protect 3. Essential regions for understanding climate change 4. Life in the polar regions: of great value to humanity 5. The polar regions: an observatory for the Earth 6. Strongly support the development of astronomy at Concordia 7. Take advantage of the polar regions' complementarity with the space missions 8. Strengthen France's presence in the polar regions 9. Reorganize France's presence in the polar regions 10. Better coordinate polar research 11. Solve the problem of insufficient funding for polar-research logistics 12. Define a French strategy for European and international cooperation APPENDICES SPEAKERS PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1 MARCH 2007 SEMINAR: "OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE" PART ONE: LUNCH-DEBATE I. MR. HENRI REVOL, PRESIDENT OF THE OPECST II. MR. JEAN-LOUIS ETIENNE PART TWO: OFFICIAL OPENING SESSION I. INTRODUCTION A. MR. CHRISTIAN GAUDIN, SENATOR, RAPPORTEUR FOR THE OPECST B. MS. CATHERINE BRECHIGNAC, PRESIDENT OF THE CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE (CNRS) C. MR. MICHEL JARRAUD, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION D. MR. CHRISTIAN COINTAT, SENATOR, PRESIDENT OF THE ANTARCTIC AND ARTIC STUDY GROUP II. OFFICIAL OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE BY MR. CHRISTIAN PONCELET, PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE III. THEMATIC DEBATE-THE POLES: INDICATORS AND EVIDENCE FOR MANKIND A. MS. NELLY OLIN, MINISTER OF ECOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT B. MS. VALERIE MASSON-DELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST, CEA C. MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST, CNRS D. MS. JOELLE ROBERT-LAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST, CNRS E. DEBATE IV. CLOSING SPEECHES A. MR. FRAN〈;:OIS GOULARD, MINISTER FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AND RESEARCH B. HIS SERENE HIGHNESS PRINCE ALBERT II OF MONACO APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. VALERIE MASSONDELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST - CEA APPENDIX 2: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. JOELLE ROBERTLAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST - CNRS APPENDIX 3: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST- CNRS

Note: Contents Page Chapter 1 Introduction About This Book Geostatistics Measurement Systems A False Feeling of Security Selected Readings Chapter 2 Elementary Statistics Probability Statistics Joint Variation of Two Variables Induced Correlations Testing Normal Populations Central Limits Theorem Significance The f Test Degrees of Freedom Test of Correlation The F Test Analysis of Variance Two-Way Analysis of Variance The x2 Test The Lognormal Distribution and Other Transformations Other Transformations Nonparametric Methods Mann-Whitney Test Kruskal-Wallis Test Nonparametric Correlation Kolmogorov-Smirnov Tests Selected Readings Chapter 3 Matrix Algebra The Matrix Elementary Matrix Operations Matrix Multiplication Convolution Matrix Inversion and Simultaneous Equations Transposition Determinants Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors Selected Readings Chapter 4 Analysis of Sequences of Data Geologic Measurements in Sequences Interpolation Procedures Markov Chains Embedded Markov Chains Series of Events Runs Tests Least-Squares Methods and Regression Analysis Curvilinear Regression Orthogonal Polynomial Regression Reduced Major Axis Splines Segmenting Sequences Zonation Seriation Autocorrelation Cross-Correlation Cross-Correlation and Geologic Correlation Cross-Association Semivariograms Modelling the Semivariogram Spectral Analysis Harmonic Analysis The Continuous Spectrum Filters Smoothing and Time-Trend Analysis Derivatives Substitutability Analysis Selected Readings Chapter 5 Map Analysis Geologic Maps - Conventional and Otherwise Systematic Patterns of Search Distribution of Points Uniform Patterns Random Patterns Clustered Patterns Nearest-Neighbor Analysis Distribution of Lines Analysis of Directional Data Testing Hypotheses about Circular Directional Data Test for Randomness Testing for a Specified Trend Test of Goodness-of-Fit 326 Testing the Equality of Two Sets of Directional Vectors Spherical Distributions Matrix Representation of Vectors Displaying Spherical Data Testing Hypotheses about Spherical Directional Data A Test of Randomness Shape Fourier Measurements of Shape Computer Contouring Contouring by Triangulation Contouring by Gridding Moving Averages Moving Weighted Averages of Block Means Kriging Punctual Kriging Universal Kriging Calculating the Drift An Example Trend Surfaces Statistical Tests of Trends Two Trend-Surface Models Pitfalls Four-Dimensional Trend Surfaces Double Fourier Series Comparing Maps Overall Similarity Similarity Maps Comparing Map Coefficients Selected Readings Contents Chapter 6 Analysis of Multivariate Data Multiple Regression Discriminant Functions Tests of Significance Multivariate Extensions of Elementary Statistics Equality of Two Vector Means Equality of Variance-Covariance Matrices Cluster Analysis Introduction to Eigenvector Methods, Including Factor Analysis Eckart-Young Theorem Principal Components Analysis R-Mode Factor Analysis Factor Rotation Maximum Likelihood Factors O-Mode Factor Analysis Principal Coordinates Analysis Correspondence Analysis Application to Continuous Variables Simultaneous R- and O-Mode Factor Analysis Multigroup Discriminant Functions Canonical Correlation Selected Readings Appendix: How to Run the STAT Program Index

Note: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX

Note: Contents: Contributors. - Preface. - Acknowledgements. - PART I SETTING THE SCENE. - 1. Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting. - 2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting. - 3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. - 4 Structure of This Book. - 2. Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction. - 3 The Evolution of NWP Technique. - 4 Enhancement of Predictable signals. - 5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction. - 6 Expanding the forecast skill Horizon. - 7 Concludmg Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting. - Acknowledgements. - 3. Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Methods. - 3 Results. - 4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks. - 4. Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using Its Conservation Properties. - 3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and Its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability. - 4 Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY. - 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index. - 3 Observed MJO Structure. - 4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather. - 5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation. - 6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models. - 7 MJO Prediction. - 8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction. - Acknowledgments. - 6. Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 Introduction and Motivation. - 2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations. - 3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band. - 4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Christiana Stan. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere. - 3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics. - 4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions. - 5 Summary and Discussion. - Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4.2. - 8. Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction. - 3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models. - 4 Predictability and Prediction. - 5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction. - 9. Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Models. - 3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. - 4 Local Tropospheric Response. - 5 Remote Tropospheric Response. - 6 Impact on Ocean Circulation. - 7 Implications for S2S Prediction. - 8 Summary and Conclusions. - Acknowledgments. - 10. The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System. - 3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability. - 4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale. - 5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal - Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models. - 6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability. - 7 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coup ling in the Tropics. - 3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics. - 4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling. - 5 Summary and Outlook. - PART Ill S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING. - 12. Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity / Yuhei Takaya. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast. - 3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble. - 4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration. - 5 Reforecast Configuration. - 6 Summary and Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 13. Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles / Roberto Buizza. - 1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction Is an Initial Value Problem. - 2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States. - 3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation. - 4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation. - 5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods. - 6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future. - 7 Summary and Key Lessons. - 14. GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Global CRM. - 3 Superparameterized GCM. - 4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection. - 5 Summary and Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - 15. Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration. - 3 Regression Methods. - 4 Forecast Combination. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 16. Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales / Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies. - 3 Observational References. - 4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures. - 5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices. - 6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification. - PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS. - 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes / Frédérik Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael Deflorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events. - 3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events. - 4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events. - 5 Conclusions. - 18. Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Why Sub-seasonal?. - 3 Case Study: Peru El Niño. - 4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts. - 5 Conclusions. - 19. Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew Degennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement. - 3 Guiding principles for improved communication Practices. - 4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research. - 20. Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases / A.

Note: Contents Preface The Arctic and Antarctic – natural realms at the poles A brief history of the polar regions The human conquest of the polar regions Conclusion: The Arctic and Antarctic – two fundamentally different polar regions The polar regions as components of the global climate system Why it is so cold in the polar regions Ice floes, ice sheets and the sea Conclusion: A chain reaction with an icy end Climate change impacts in the polar regions The pathways of heat Retreating ice Conclusion: More heat – much less ice Polar flora and fauna Living in the cold Marine life Polar ecosystems in retreat Conclusion: Highly specialized and greatly threatened Polar politics and commerce The Arctic and Antarctic as political arenas An economic boom with side effects Conclusion: Growing interest in the polar regions Overall Conclusion Glossary Abbreviations Bibliography Contributors Index Partners and Acknowledgements Table of figures Publication details

Note: Contents: Preface. - Acknowledgements. - Chapter 1 Climate. - 1.1 The components of climate. - 1.2 Climate modelling and climate prediction. - 1.3 Climate changes and human perception. - 1.4 Feedback mechanisms in climate. - 1.4.1 The ice-albedo feedback mechanism. - 1.4.2 The water vapour “greenhouse”. - 1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks. - 1.4.4 Combining feedback effects. - 1.5 Perturbations on the climate system. - 1.5.1 External causes of climatic change. - 1.5.2 Internal causes of climatic change. - 1.6 Range of questions for climate modelling. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 2 A history of and introduction to climate models. - 2.1 Introducing climate modelling. - 2.2 Types of climate models. - 2.2.1 Energy balance climate models. - 2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective climate models. - 2.2.3 Two-dimensional climate models. - 2.2.4 General circulation climate models. - 2.3 History of climate modelling. - 2.4 Sensitivity of climate models. - 2.5 Parameterization of climatic processes. - 2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling. - Chapter 3 Energy balance models. - 3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget. - 3.2 The structure of energy balance models. - 3.3 Parameterizing the climate system for energy balance models. - 3.4 A BASIC energy balance climate model. - 3.5 Experiments with energy balance models. - 3.5.1 Explicit modelling of the cryosphere. - 3.6 Box models — another form of energy balance model. - 3.6.1 A simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere. - 3.6.2 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model. - 3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple models. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 4 Radiative-convective models. - 4.1 The concept of a radiative-convective climate model. - 4.2 The structure of global radiative-convective models. - 4.3 Radiation computation. - 4.3.1 Shortwave radiation. - 4.3.2 Longwave radiation. - 4.3.3 Eleat balance at the ground. - 4.4 Convective adjustment. - 4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative-convective models. - 4.6 Development of radiative-convective models. - 4.6.1 Cloud amount and height predicted from ‘convection’. - 4.6.2 A water vapour transport model. - 4.7 Radiation: the driver of climate. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 5 Two-dimensional models. - 5.1 Why two-dimensional models?. - 5.2 Two-dimensional statistical dynamical climate models. - 5.3 Convection, cloud cover and precipitation in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models. - 5.4 Radiation and surface characterization in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models. - 5.4.1 Radiation. - 5.4.2 Surface characterization. - 5.5 Intercomparison of a two-and a three-dimensional model. - 5.6 Other types of two-dimensional models. - 5.6.1 An upgraded energy balance model. - 5.6.2 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model. - 5.7 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 6 General circulation climate models. - 6.1 The structure of general circulation climate models. - 6.2 Dynamics in general circulation climate models. - 6.2.1 Cartesian (or rectangular) grid general circulation climate models. - 6.2.2 Spectral general circulation climate models. - 6.3 Physics in general circulation climate models. - 6.3.1 Radiative transfer. - 6.3.2 Boundary layer. - 6.3.3 Surface parameterization. - 6.3.4 Convection. - 6.3.5 Large scale rainfall. - 6.4 Including ‘other’ elements in general circulation climate models. - 6.4.1 Cloud prediction. - 6.4.2 Modelling the cryosphere. - 6.5 Land surface parameterization in general circulation climate models. - 6.6 Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate models. - 6.7 Future climate projects and their importance to general circulation climate models. - 6.8 Epilogue. - Recommended reading. - Appendices. - A. Glossary. - B. Climate models: examples of simple microcomputer software. - I. Daisyworld: a simple biospheric feedback climate model. - II. Modelling the climatic impact of anthropogenerated albedo change. - III. An energy balance climate model (EBM). - IV. Carbon dioxide feedback using a simple ocean model. - General Bibliography. - Index.