ALBERT

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Note: Inhalt = Content 1. Vorwort = Introduction 2. Ausgewählte Forschungsthemen = Selected research topics Rinnen im Meereis: Heizung für die Atmosphäre? = Leads in Sea Ice: Heating the Atmosphere? / Christof Lüpkes, Vladimir Gryanik, Anna Barbara Herold, Gerit Birnbaum, Ulrike Wacker, Jörg Hartmann Die polaren Ozeane vor dem Hintergrund der Klimaänderung – Ein Vergleich = The Polar Oceans in the context of climate change – commons and contrasts / Eberhard Fahrbach, Christian Haas und Ursula Schauer Wissenschaftliches Rechnen und Ozeanographie für das Krisenmanagement: Der Beitrag des Alfred-Wegener-Instituts zum Deutsch-Indonesischen Tsunami-Frühwarnsystem = Scientific computing and oceanography for hazard management: The contribution of the Alfred Wegener Institute to the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System / Jörn Behrens, Wolfgang Hiller, Jens Schröter Klimaarchiv Eis – Das European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) = Climate archive in ice - the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) / Hubertus Fischer, Frank Wilhelms, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Hans Oerter, Hanno Meyer, Peter Köhler, Rainer Gersonde & Heinz Miller Schwarzschiefer vom Nordpol entschlüsseln Klimageschichte: Der Arktische Ozean war vor 45 Millionen Jahren so warm wie die Ostsee heute = Black shales near the North Pole decipher climate history: The Arctic Ocean at 45 Ma was as warm as the modern Baltic Sea / Ruediger Stein, Petra Weller, Bettina Boucsein und Jens Matthiessen Leben auf dem Mars? Methan-bildende Mikroorganismen aus sibirischen Permafrost-böden als Studienobjekte = Life on Mars? Methane-forming micro-organisms from Siberian permafrost soils as study objects / Dirk Wagner und Daria Morozova Seeelefanten helfen Südozeanmodellierern = Elephant Seals help validate Finite Element Ice-Ocean Model / Ralph Timmermann Neuigkeiten in der Krillforschung: Licht kontrolliert Lebensfunktionen des Krills = News in Krill research: Light controls life functions of krill / Mathias Teschke, Bettina Meyer, Carsten Pape, Susanne Spahic Wie wird man 400 Jahre alt? Altersvorsorge der Islandmuschel (Arctica islandica) = Living 400 years – what is the secret of the ocean quahog (Arctica islandica)? / Doris Abele, Eva Philipp, Julia Strahl, Thomas Brey Langzeitforschung auf Helgoland und Sylt: Ein Finger am Puls der Nordsee = Long-Term Ecological Research at Helgoland and Sylt: Keeping a Finger at the Pulse of the North Sea / Justus E.E. van Beusekom, Maarten Boersma, Karsten Reise and Karen H. Wiltshire 3. Forschung = Research MARCOPOLI 3.1 MARINE 3.2 COAST 3.3 POLAR 3.4 Neue Themen = Additional funding 4. Helmholtz-Nachwuchsgruppen = Helmholtz Young Investigator Groups 5. Entwicklungen in den Fachbereichen = Progresses in the Scientific Divisions 6. Neue Technologien = New technologies 7. Logistik und Forschungsplattformen = Logistics and research platforms 8. Nationale und internationale Zusammenarbeit = National and international cooperation 9. Mariner Umweltschutz = Marine environmental protection 10. Wissenschaftliches Rechenzentrum = Scientific data processing centre 11. Bibliothek = Library 12. Technologietransfer = Technology transfer 13. Presse- und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit = Public relations department 14. Schulprojekt = School project 15. Personeller Aufbau und Haushaltsentwicklung = Personnel structure and budget trends 16. Veröffentlichungen, Patente = Publications, patents Anhang = Annex , Text in deutscher und englischer Sprache

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.

Note: Inhalt = Content 1. Vorwort = Introduction 2. Ausgewählte Forschungsthemen = Selected research topics Algen im Klimawandel: Neue Messmethoden zeigen den Gasaustausch der Zellen in Echtzeit = Algae and climate change: new methods show the gas exchange of cells in real time / Björn Rost, Klaus-Uwe Richter Arktische Klimaprozesse und globale atmo-sphärische Auswirkungen = Arctic climate processes and global atmo-spheric impacts / Klaus Dethloff, Annette Rinke, Elena Sokolova, Subodh Kumar Saha Das Klima der letzten 10 000 Jahre: Eine Verknüpfung aus Beobachtungsdaten, Umweltarchiven und Modellstudien = The climate of the last 10 000 years: Combining observational data with environ-mental archives and model studies / Gerrit Lohmann Chemische Ökologie mariner Protisten - Bedeutung für die Dynamik mariner Nahrungsketten = Chemical ecology of marine protists - implications for marine food web dynamics / Allan Cembella, Uwe John, Bernd Krock, Tilman Alpermann, Urban Tillmann Nährstoffbelastung des Wattenmeeres: Besserung in Sicht = Eutrophication of the Wadden Sea: Signs of improvement / J. E. E. van Beusekom, M. Loebl, K. Reise, A. Schanz Planktonregen im Südpolarmeer: Das europä-ische Eisendüngungsexperiment EIFEX (Euro-pean Iron Fertilization Experiment) = Plankton rain in the Southern Ocean: The Euro-pean Iron Fertilization Experiment EIFEX / Philipp Assmy, Boris Cisewski, Joachim Henjes, Christine Klaas, Oliver Sachs Sind Lebensgemeinschaften polarer Meere Verlierer der Klimaveränderung? = Does global warming pose a threat to polar ecosystems? / Gisela Lannig, Ute Jacob, Thomas Brey, Rainer Knust, Hans-O. Pörtner Marine Genomik – Von den Genen zur Evolution und Ökologie mariner Organismen = Marine Genomics – through genomes to evolution and ecology of marine organisms / Klaus Valentin Frostblumen: Salzige Kristalle auf dünnem Eis = Frost flowers: salty crystals on thin ice / Hans-Werner Jacobi, Sandra Lehmann Gemeinsam in den Hausgarten: Deutsch-französische Kooperation in der Tiefseeforschung = Together ‘en route‘ for HAUSGARTEN:Franco-German co-operation in deep-sea research / Thomas Soltwedel, Michael Klages Fernerkundung in arktischen Periglazial-landschaften – Auf den Spuren der Permafrost-dynamik = Remote sensing in Arctic periglacial landscapes – The tracing of permafrost dynamics / Guido Große, Dirk Wagner, Lutz Schirrmeister Frühling im Weddellmeer: Biologisch-physikalische Wechselwirkungen zwischen Atmosphäre, Eis und Ozean = Go with the floe: biological-physical interac-tions between atmosphere, ice and ocean in the Weddell Sea / Christian Haas, Gerhard Dieckmann, Hartmut Hellmer, Michael Schröder 3. Forschung = Research MARCOPOLI 3.1 MARINE 3.2 COAST 3.3 POLAR 3.4 Neue Themen = Additional funding 4. Entwicklungen in den Fachbereichen = Progresses in the Scientific Divisions 5. Neue Technologien = New technologies 6. Logistik und Forschungsplattformen = Logistics and research platforms 7. Nationale und internationale Zusammenarbeit = National and international cooperation 8. Mariner Umweltschutz = Marine environmental protection 9. Informationszentrum = Information centre 10. Bibliothek = Library 11. Technologietransfer = Technology transfer 12. Presse- und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit = Public relations department 13. Personeller Aufbau und Haushaltsentwicklung = Personnel structure and budget trends 14. Veröffentlichungen, Patente = Publications, patents Anhang = Annex

Note: Contents Introduction 1. Isotope hydrology: a historical perspective / P.K. Aggarwal, K. Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, J.R. Gat ISOTOPIC AND NUCLEAR METHODOLOGIES 2. Isotopic tracers for obtaining hydrologic parameters / H. Moser, W. Rauert 3. Hydrologic process studies using radionuclides produced by cosmic rays / D.Lal 4. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes / L.L. Gourcy, M. Groening, P.K. Aggarwal 5. Tritium in the hydrologic cycle / R.L. Michel 6. Assessing sources and transformations of sulphate and nitrate in the hydrosphere using isotope techniques / B. Mayer 7. Rare gases / H.H. Loosli, R. Purtschert 8. U and Th series nuclides in natural waters / A. Kaufman 9. Optical isotope ratio measurements in hydrology / E.R.Th. Kerstel, H.A.J. Meijer HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 10. Some classical concepts of isotope hydrology / J.R. Gat 11. Istotopes in lake studies: a historical perspective / K.Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, K. Rozanski 12. A review of isotope applications in catchment hydrology / T. Vitvar, P.K. Aggarwal, J.J. McDonnell 13. Contribution of isotopic and nuclear tracers to study of groundwaters / W.M. Edmunds 14. Dating of young groundwater / LN. Plummer 15. Dating of old groundwater - history, potential, limits and future / M.A. Geyh 16. Geotermal systems / Y.K. Kharaka, R.H. Mariner 17. Saline waters / J. Horita HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18. Isotopes in atmospheric moisture / K. Rozanski 19. How much climatic information do water isotopes contain? / G. Hoffmann, M. Cuntz, J. Jouzel, M. Werner 20. Stable isotopes through the holocene as recorded in low-latitude, high-altitude ice cores / L.G. Thompson, M.E. Davis 21. Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change / W.M. Edmunds 22. Isotopic palaeolimnology / F. Gasse Appendices A. List of seminal papers on isotope hydrology (the isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) B. List of papers presented at the 1st IAEA Symposium on Isotope Hydrology (Tokyo, 1963) C. Excerpts from report of 1st IAEA Panel on the Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology