ALBERT

Anmerkung: Content: Preface. - 1 IASC Internal Development. - IASC Organization. - IASC Council . - IASC Executive Committee. - IASC Secretariat. - Allen Pope New IASC Executive Secretary. - IASC Secretariat Moves to Iceland. - IASC Future Strategy. - IASC Medal 2017. - 2 IASC Working Groups. - Cross-Cutting Initiatives. - Atmosphere Working Group (AWG). - Cryosphere Working Group (CWG). - Marine Working Group (MWG). - Social and Human Working Group (SHWG). - Terrestrial Working Group (TWG). - 3 Arctic Science Summit Week 2016. - Upcoming ASSWs. - 4 Data and Observations. - Arctic Data Committee (ADC). - Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON). - 5 Partnerships. - Asian Forum for Polar Sciences (AFoPS). - Arctic Council. - 6 Capacity Building. - IASC Fellowship Program. - Overview of Supported Early Career Scientists. - Annex. - Polar Acronyms.

Anmerkung: Contents: Lists of figures. - List of contributors. - Preface. - 1. Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective / Michel Crucifix, Guillaume Lenoir and Takahito Mitsui. - 2. Tipping points in the climate system / Peter Ditlevsen. - 3. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns / Steven B. Feldstein and Christian L. E. Franzke. - 4. Atmospheric regimes: the link between weather and the large scale circulation / David M. Straus, Franco Molteni and Susanna Corti. - 5. Low-frequency regime transitions and predictability of regimes in a barotropic model / Balu T. Nadiga and Terence J. O'Kane. - 6. Complex network techniques for climatological data analysis / Reik V. Donner, Marc Wiedermann and Jonathan F. Donges. - 7. On inference and validation of causality relations in climate teleconnections / Illia Horenko, Susanne Gerber, Terence J. O'Kane, James S. Risbey and Didier P. Monselesan. - 8. Stochastic climate theory / Georg A. Gottwald, Daan T. Crommelin and Christian L. E. Franzke. - 9. Stochastic subgrid modelling for geophysical and three-dimensional turbulence / Jorgen S. Frederiksen, Vassili Kitsios, Terence J. O'Kane and Meelis J. Zidikheri. - 10. Model error in data assimilation / John Harlim. - 11. Long-term memory in climate: detection, extreme events, and significance of trends / Armin Bunde and Josef Ludescher. - 12. Fractional stochastic models for heavy tailed, and long-range dependent, fluctuations in physical systems / Nicholas W. Watkins. - 13. Modelling spatial extremes using Max-Stable Processes / Mathieu Ribatet. - 14. Extreme value analysis in dynamical systems: two case studies / Tamás Bódai. - Index.

Anmerkung: Contents: 1 Introduction to the Application of Paleoecological Techniques in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, Kaarina Weckström, Peter A. Gell, and C. Gregory Skilbeck. - PART I ESTARIES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT. - 2 Estuary Form and Function: Implications for Palaeoecological Studies / Peter Scanes, Angus Ferguson, and Jaimie Potts. - 3 Geology and Sedimentary History of Modern Estuaries / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Andrew D. Heap, and Colin D. Woodroffe. - 4 Paleoecological Evidence for Variability and Change in Estuaries: Insights for Management / Krystyna M. Saunders and Peter A. Gell. - PART II CORING AND DATING OF ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS. - 5 Sediment Sampling in Estuaries: Site Selection and Sampling Techniques / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Stacey Trevathan-Tackett, Pemika Apichanangkool, and Peter I. Macreadie. - 6 Some Practical Considerations Regarding the Application of 210Pb and 137Cs Dating to Estuarine Sediments / Thorbjoern Joest Andersen. - 7 Radiocarbon Dating in Estuarine Environments / Jesper Olsen, Philippa Ascough, Bryan C. Lougheed, and Peter Rasmussen. - PART III TECHNIQUES FOR PALAEOENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTIONS IN ESTUARINES. - 8 Lipid Biomarkers as Organic Geochemical Proxies for the Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of Estuarine Environments / John K. Volkman and Rienk H. Smittenberg. - 9 C/N ratios and Carbon Isotope Composition of Organic Matter in Estuarine Environments / Melanie J. Leng and Jonathan P. Lewis. - 10 Physical and Chemical Factors to Consider when Studying Historical Contamination and Pollution in Estuaries / Amanda Reichelt-Brushett, Malcolm Clark, and Gavin Birch. - 11 Diatoms as Indicators of Environmental Change in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, and Brendan Logan. - 12 Dinoflagellate Cysts as Proxies for Holocene Environmental Change in Estuaries: Diversity, Abundance and Morphology / Marianne Ellegaard, Barrie Dale, Kenneth N. Mertens, Vera Pospelova, and Sofia Ribeiro. - 13 Applications of Foraminifera, Testate Amoebae and Tintinnids in Estuarine Palaeoecology / Anupam Ghosh and Helena L. Filipsson. - 14 Ostracods as Recorders of Palaeoenvironmental Change in Estuaries / Jessica M. Reeves. - 15 Application of Molluscan Analyses to the Reconstruction of Past Environmental Conditions in Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard and Donna Surge. - 16 Corals in Estuarine Environments: Their Response to Environmental Changes and Application in Reconstructing Past Environmental Variability / Francisca Staines-Urías. - 17 Inferring Environmental Change in Estuaries from Plant Macrofossils / John Tibby and Carl D. Sayer. - 18 Applications of Pollen Analysis in Estuarine Systems / Joanna C. Ellison. - PART IV CASE STUDIES. - 19 Palaeo-Environmental Approaches to Reconstructing Sea Level Changes in Estuaries / Brigid V. Morrison and Joanna C. Ellison. - 20 Paleoecology Studies in Chesapeake Bay: A Model System for Understanding Interactions between Climate, Anthropogenic Activities and the Environment / Elizabeth A. Canuel, Grace S. Brush, Thomas M. Cronin, Rowan Lockwood, and Andrew R. Zimmerman. - 21 Paleosalinity Changes in the Río de la Plata Estuary and on the Adjacent Uruguayan Continental Shelf over the Past 1200 Years: An Approach Using Diatoms as a Proxy / Laura Perez, Felipe García-Rodríguez, and Till J.J. Hanebuth. - 22 Application of Paleoecology to Ecosystem Restoration: A Case Study from South Florida’s Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard. - 23 Paleolimnological History of the Coorong: Identifying the Natural Ecological Character of a Ramsar Wetland in Crisis / Peter A. Gell. - 24 Palaeoenvironmental History of the Baltic Sea: One of the Largest Brackish-water Ecosystems in the World / Kaarina Weckström, Jonathan P. Lewis, Elinor Andrén, Marianne Ellegaard, Peter Rasmussen, and Richard Telford. - Glossary. - Index

Anmerkung: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX

Anmerkung: Contents: List of contributors. - Preface. - 1 Overview of sea ice growth and properties / Chris Petrich & Hajo Eicken. - 2 Sea ice thickness distribution / Christian Haas. - 3 Snow in the sea-ice system : friend or foe? / Matthew Sturm & Robert A. Massom. - 4 Sea ice and sunlight / Donald K. Perovich. - 5 The sea ice-ocean boundary layer / Miles G. McPhee. - 6 The atmosphere over sea ice / Ola Persson & Timo Vihma. - 7 Sea ice and arctic ocean oceanography / Finlo Cottier, Mike Steele & Frank Nielsen. - 8 Oceanography and sea ice in the southern ocean / Michael P. Meredith & Mark A. Brandon. - 9 Methods of satellite remote sensing of sea ice / Gunnar Spreen & Stefan Kern. - 10 Gaining (and losing) antarctic sea ice : variability, trends and mechanisms / Sharon Stammerjohn & Ted Maksym. - 11 Losing arctic sea ice : observations of the recent decline and the long-term context / Walt N. Meier. - 12 Sea ice in earth system models / Dirk Notz & Cecilia M. Bitz. - 13 Sea ice as a habitat for bacteria, archaea and viruses / Jody W. Deming & R. Eric Collins. - 14 Sea ice as a habitat for primary producers / Kevin R. Arrigo. - 15 Sea ice as a habitat for micrograzers / David A. Caron, Rebecca J. Gast & Marie-Eve Garneau. - 16 Sea ice as a habitat for macrograzers / Bodil A. Bluhm, Kerrie M. Swadling & Rolf Gradinger. - 17 Nutrients, dissolved organic matter and exopolymers in sea ice / Klaus M. Meiners & Christine Michel. - 18 Gases in sea ice / Jean-Louis Tison, Bruno Delille & Stathys Papadimitriou. - 19 Transport and transformation of contaminants in sea ice / Feiyue Wang, Monika Pucko & Gary Stern. - 20 Numerical models of sea ice biogeochemistry / Martin Vancoppenolla & Letizia Tedesco. - 21 Arctic marine mammals and sea ice / Kristin L. Laidre & Eric V. Regehr. - 22 Antarctic marine mammals and sea ice / Marthán N. Bester, Horst Bornemann & Trevor McIntyre. - 23 A feathered perspective : the influence of sea ice on arctic marine birds / Nina J. Karnovsky & Maria V. Gavrilo. - 24 Birds and antarctic sea ice / David Ainley, Eric J. Woehler & Amelie Lescroel. - 25 Sea ice is our beautiful garden : indigenous perspectives on sea ice of sea ice in the arctic / Henry P. Huntington, Shari Gearheard, Lene Kielsen Holm, George Noongwook, Margaret Opie & Joelie Sanguya. - 26 Advances in palaeo sea-ice estimation / Leanne Armand, Alexander Ferry & Amy Leventer. - 27 Ice in subarctic seas / Hermanni Kaartokallio, Mats A. Granskog, Harri Kuosa & Jouni Vainio. - Index.

Anmerkung: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung Abbreviations and nomenclatureI 1. Introduction 1.1 Scientific background 1.1.1 Permafrost and ground ice 1.1.2 Organic carbon pools and fluxes into the Arctic Ocean 1.1.3 Climate warming and permafrost thaw 1.1.4 Permafrost degradation and coastal erosion 1.1.5 Study area Yukon coast and Qikiqtaruk 1.2 Knowledge gaps 1.3 Aims and objectives 1.4 Thesis structure and author's contribution 2. Eroding permafrost coasts release low amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from ground ice into the nearshore zone of the Arctic Ocean 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Study area 2.4 Methods 2.4.1 Field work 2.4.2 DOC concentration 2.4.3 DOC flux estimation 2.5 Results 2.5.1 Segmentation of the coast - literature synthesis 2.5.2 DOC concentration 2.5.3 DOC stocks and fluxes 2.6 Discussion 2.6.1 DOC concentrations in ground ice 2.6.2 DOC fluxes from the YC 2.6.3 DOC fluxes and the Arctic carbon budget 2.7 Conclusion and Outlook 2.8 Acknowledgements 3.Transformation of terrestrial organic matter along thermokarst-affected permafrost coasts in the Arctic 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Study area 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Field work 3.3.2 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.3.3 Organic matter 3.3.4 Statistics 3.3.5 Transformation of organic matter 3.3.6 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.4.2 Organic matter 3.4.3 C/N-ratios and δ13C 3.4.4 Biomarkers 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Transformation of organic matter in the disturbed zone 3.5.2 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.5.3 Environmental impact of the RTS 3.6 Conclusion 3.7 Acknowledgements 4. Rapid greenhouse gas release from eroding permafrost coasts 4.1 Summary 4.2 Background 4.3 Study site 4.4 Sampling and incubation setup 4.5 Findings and discussion 4.6 Conclusion 4.7 Methods 4.7.1 Incubation conditions 4.7.2 Gas measurements 4.7.3 Geo- and hydrochemical analysis 4.8 Acknowledgements 5. Synthesis 5.1 Mobilization of permafrost OC pools by coastal erosion 5.2 Transformation of permafrost OM on transit from land to sea 5.3 Fate and pathways of permafrost OC in the nearshore zone 5.4 Conclusion and outlook References Appendix I: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice I-1 Abstract I-2 Introduction I-3 Study area and study sites I-4 Material and methods I-4-1 Laboratory analyses I-4-2 Statistical methods I-5 Results I-5-1 DOC and DIC concentrations I-5-2 Correlation matrix I-5-3 Principal components I-5-4 Univariate Tree Model (UTM) I-6 Discussion I-6-1 DOC stocks in ground ice and relevance to carbon cycling I-6-2 Carbon sequestration and origin in relation to inorganic geochemistry I-6-3 DOC mobility and quality upon permafrost degradation I-7 Conclusions and outlook I-8 Acknowledgements Appendix II: Supplementary material for Chapter 2 II-1 Supplementary table - Ground ice and geochemical data II-2 Supplementary table - Coastal segments and DOC flux Appendix III: Supplementary material for Chapter 3 III-1 Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index map III-2 Photograph of a massive ice bed in a RTS III-3 Calculation of biomarker proxies III-4 Supplementary table - Summary of geochemical data III-5 Supplementary table - Summary of statistical analysis AppendixI V: Supplementary material for Chapter 4 IV-1 Design of the incubation experiment IV-2 Photograph of a standard incubation setup IV-3 Conversion of gas amounts into mass IV-4 Total and daily aerobic CH4 production IV-5 Histogram summarizing OC losses and CO2 emissions IV-6 Supplementary table - Summary of TOC, DOC, and pH data IV-7 Supplementary table - Summary of TN, TOC/TN, and δ13C-TOC data IV-8 Supplementary table - Summary of total CO2 and CH4 production data IV-9 Supplementary table - Comparison of incubation setups IV-10 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CO2 production data IV-11 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CH4 production data Acknowledgements-Danksagung

Anmerkung: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2017 , Contents Abstract Kurzfassung Contents 1. List of figures 2. List of tables Chapter 1. General introduction 1. Motivation 2. Scientific background 3. Objectives of the thesis 4. Thesis outline Chapter 2. Manuscript 1: Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix 1. Abstract 2. Introduction 3. Material and Methods 4. Results 5. Discussion 6. Acknowledgements Chapter 3. Manuscript 2: Field and simulation data reveal dissimilar responses of Larix gmelinii stands to increasing temperature across the Siberian treeline ecotone 1. Abstract 2. Introduction 3. Methods 4. Results 5. Discussion 6. Acknowledgements Chapter 4. Manuscript 3: High gene flow and complex treeline dynamics on the Taymyr Peninsula (north-central Siberia), revealed by nuclear microsatellites of Larix 1. Abstract 2. Introduction 3. Materials and methods 4. Results 5. Discussion 6. Acknowledgements Chapter 5. Manuscript 4: Dispersal distances at treeline in Siberia - genetic guided model improvement 1. Abstract 2. Introduction 3. Methods 4. Results 5. Discussion 6. Acknowledgements Chapter 6. Synopsis 1. Towards a better understanding of Siberian treeline dynamics 2. Methodological challenges to reconstruct and predict the treeline advance 3. Conclusions 4. Outlook Appendix 1. Supplementary information for manuscript 1 (Chapter 2) 2. Supplementary information for manuscript 2 (Chapter 3) 3. Supplementary information for manuscript 3 (Chapter 4) 4. Supplementary information for manuscript 4 (Chapter 5) Bibliography Acknowledgements - Danksagung Declaration

Anmerkung: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2017 , Content List of Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables Summary Zusammenfassung Motivation Chapter 1 1. Scientific background 1.1 Late Quaternary climate changes and treeline transition in northern Siberia 1.2 Natural archives and proxies to assess vegetation history 1.3 Study area 1.3 Objectives of the thesis 1.4 Thesis outline 1.4.1 Chapters and manuscripts 1.4.2 Author's contribution 1.4.2.1 Manuscript I - published 1.4.2.2 Manuscript II - submitted 1.4.2.3 Manuscript III - prepared for submission Chapter 2 2. Manuscript I: Sedimentary ancient DNA and pollen reveal the composition of plant organic matter in Late Quaternary permafrost sediments of the Buor Khaya Peninsula (north-eastern Siberia) 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Geographical settings 2.4 Material and methods 2.4.1 Core material 2.4.2 Subsampling of the permafrost core 2.4.3 Molecular genetic laboratory work 2.4.4 Analysis of sequence data and taxonomic assignments 2.4.5 Pollen sample treatment and analysis 2.4.6 Statistical analyses and visualization 2.5 Results 2.5.1 SedaDNA 2.5.1.1 SedaDNA of terrestrial plants 2.5.1.2 SedaDNA of swamp and aquatic plants 2.5.1.3 SedaDNA of bryophytes and algae 2.5.2 Pollen 2.5.2.1 Pollen of terrestrial plants 2.5.2.2 Pollen and spores of swamp and aquatic plants 2.5.2.3 Spores and algae 2.5.3 Ratios of terrestrial to swamp and aquatic taxa and Poaceae to Cyperaceae 2.6 Discussion 2.6.1 Quality and proxy value of sedaDNA and pollen data 2.6.2 Environmental conditions during the pre-LGM (54-51 kyr BP, 18.9-8.35 m) and composition of deposited organic matter 2.6.3 Environmental conditions during the post-LGM (11.4-9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP)) and composition of deposited organic matter 2.7 Conclusions 2.8 Acknowledgements Chapter 3 3. Manuscript II: Genetic variation of larches at the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone inferred from the assembly of chloroplast genomes and mitochondrial sequences 3.1. Abstract 3.2. Introduction 3.3. Material and methods 3.3.1 Plant material 3.3.2 DNA isolation and sequencing 3.3.3 Sequence processing and de novo assembly 3.3.4 Chloroplast genome assembly, annotation and variant detection 3.3.5 Mitochondrial sequences 3.3.6 Analyses of genetic variation 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Chloroplast genome structure and genetic variation 3.4.2 Mitochondrial sequences and genetic variation 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 De novo assembly and genetic variation of chloroplast genomes and mitochondrial sequences 3.5.2 The distribution of genetic variation at the tundra-taiga ecotone 3.6 Conclusions 3.7 Acknowledgements Chapter 4 4. Manuscript III: The history of tree and shrub taxa and past genetic variation of larches on Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) since the last interglacial uncovered by sedimentary ancient DNA 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Materials and methods 4.3.1 Geographic setting 4.3.2 Core material 4.3.2.1 Core L14-02: Yedoma Ice Complex 4.3.2.2 Core L14-03: Thermo terrace 4.3.2.3 Core L14-04 and hand-pieces L14-04B and L14-04C: Thermo terrace including Eemian deposits 4.3.2.4 Core L14-05: Alas 4.3.3 Core sub-sampling 4.3.4 Molecular genetic laboratory work 4.3.4.1 Sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding approach 4.3.4.2 Specific amplification of Larix from sedimentary ancient DNA 4.3.5 Filtering of Illumina sequencing data and taxonomic assignments 4.3.6 Statistical analyses and visualization 4.3.7 Geochronology 4.4. Results 4.4.1 Overall composition of the DNA metabarcoding data 4.4.2 Terrestrial vegetation composition 4.4.2.1 Core L14-02: Late Pleistocene Yedoma Ice Complex 4.4.2.2 L14-03: Deeper late Pleistocene deposits 4.4.2.3 L14-04 Thermo terrace including Eemian deposits 4.4.2.4 Core L14-05: Alas with Holocene lake deposits and taberits of the Yedoma Ice Complex 4.4.2.5 The multivariate structure of the terrestrial vegetation among samples and cores 4.4.3 Genetic variation ofsediment-derived Larix sequences 4.5 Discussion 4.5.1 Tree taxa in the sedaDNA record - where do they come from? 4.5.2 Terrestrial plant community changes of warm phases since the last interglacial 4.5.3 Past genetic diversity of larch populations on Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island 4.6 Conclusion 4.7 Acknowledgements Chapter 5 5. Synopsis 5.1 The proxy potential of sedaDNA in paleobotanical reconstructions from sedimentary deposits 5.1.1 Combining sedaDNA and pollen to assess plant diversity and vegetation composition 5.1.2 Current limits and opportunities of sedaDNA approaches 5.2 Using genomic data to trace modern and past treeline dynamics 5.2.1 Modern genomic variation at the Siberian treeline 5.2.2 PCR-based markers for paleoenvironmental genetics 5.3 Terrestrial plant community changes and treeline dynamics in north-eastern Siberia since the last interglacial 5.3.1 Vegetation changes in north-eastern Siberia since the last interglacial 5.3.2 Implications for treeline dynamics 5.4 Conclusion 5.5 Outlook Appendix 1. Supplementary material for Manuscript I (Chapter 2) 2. Supplementary material for Manuscript II (Chapter 3) 3. Supplementary material for Manuscript III (Chapter 4) References Acknowledgements Erklärung

Anmerkung: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2017 , Table of Contents I. Abstract II. Deutsche Zusammenfassung 0 Challenge 1 Introduction 1.1 The treeline ecotone 1.2 Stand structure drivers in the treeline ecotone 1.3 Climate change and recent treeline changes 1.4 Methods for treeline studies 1.4.1 Overview 1.4.2 Field-based treeline studies 1.4.3 Modelling treeline dynamics 1.5 Study Area 1.6 The Siberian treeline ecotone 1.7 Larix as study Species 1.8 Objectives of this thesis 1.9 Thesis outline 1.10 Contribution of the authors 1.10.1 Manuscript!- published 1.10.2 Manuscript II - submitted 1.10.3 Manuscript III-in preparation 1.10.4 Manuscript IV-submitted 2 Manuscript I Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Materials and Methods 2.3.1 Reference sites 2.3.2 Description of the model LAVESI 2.3.3 The ODD-Protocol for LAVESI 2.3.4 Parameterization 2.3.5 Khatanga climate time-series 2.3.6 Sensitivity analysis 2.3.7 Model experiments 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Sensitivity analysis 2.4.2 Taymyr treeline application 2.4.3 Temperature experiments 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 Assessment of LAVESI sensitivity 2.5.2 Larix stand simulation under the Taymyr Peninsula weather 2.5.3 Transient Larix response to hypothetical future temperature changes 2.5.4 Conclusions 2.6 Acknowledgements 3 Manuscript II Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures - a field and simulation based study 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Study area 3.3.2 Field-based approach 3.3.3 Age analyses 3.3.4 Stand structure analyses 3.3.5 Seed analyses 3.3.6 Establishment history 3.3.7 Modelling approach 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Field data 3.4.2 Simulation study 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Data acquisition 3.5.2 Larch-stand patterns across the Siberian treeline ecotone 3.5.3 Warming causes densification in the forest-tundra 3.5.4 Intra-specific competition inhibits densification in the closed forest 3.5.5 Recruitment limitation decelerates densification and northward expansion ofthe single-tree tundra 3.6 Conclusions 3.7 Acknowledgements 4 Manuscript III Spatial patterns and growth sensitivity of larch stands in the Taimyr Depression 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Methods 4.3.1 Study Area 4.3.2 Field data collection 4.3.3 Spatial point patterns 4.3.4 Dendrological approach 4.4 Results 4.4.1 Spatial patterns 4.4.2 Tree growth 4.5 Discussion 4.5.1 Spatial patterns 4.5.2 Tree chronology characteristics 4.6 Conclusion 5 Manuscript IV Patterns of larch stands under different disturbance regimes in the lower Kolyma River area (Russian Far East) 5.1 Abstract 5.2 Introduction 5.3 Methods 5.3.1 Study area and field data collection 5.3.2 Site description 5.3.3 Dendrochronological approach 5.3.4 Statistical analyses 5.4 Results 5.4.1 General stand characteristics and age structure 5.4.2 Spatial patterns 5.5 Discussion 5.5.1 Fire related disturbances 5.5.2 Water-related disturbances: lake drainage, flooding, polygon development 5.5.3 Implications and conclusion 6 Synthesis and Discussion 6.1 Assessment of applied methods 6.1.1 Field-based observations: 6.1.2 Modelling 6.2 Overview of larch stand structures and spatial pattern on different spatial scales 6.2.1 Recent stand structures 6.2.2 Spatial Patterns 6.3 Stand structure drivers and treeline changes 6.3.1 Climate change 6.3.2 Disturbances 6.3.3 Autecology 6.4 Conclusion 6.5 Outlook 7 Appendix 7.1 Supplementary information for Manuscript I 7.2 Supplementary information for Manuscript II 7.2.1 Manuscript II: Appendix 1. Climatic information for the study region 7.2.2 Manuscript II: Appendix 2. Plot-specific values and krummholz appearance 7.2.3 Manuscript II: Appendix 3. Regression analysis for age data 7.2.4 Manuscript II: Appendix 4. Model description 7.3 Supplementary information for Manuscript III 7.4 Supplementary information for Manuscript IV 7.5 Supplementary information 8 References Danksagung Eidesstattliche Erklärung

Anmerkung: Contents Part I Distribution and Characteristics of Arctic Ice Shelves 1 Arctic Ice Shelves: An Introduction / Julian A. Dowdeswell and Martin O. Jeffries 2 The Ellesmere Ice Shelves, Nunavut, Canada / Martin O. Jeffries 3 Eurasian Arctic Ice Shelves and Tidewater Ice Margins / Julian A. Dowdeswell 4 Greenland Ice Shelves and Ice Tongues / Niels Reeh Part II Physical Processes and Historical Changes of Arctic Ice Shelves 5 Changes in Canadian Arctic Ice Shelf Extent Since 1906 / Derek Mueller, Luke Copland, and Martin O. Jeffries 6 The Surface Mass Balance of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf and Ward Hunt Ice Rise, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada / Carsten Braun 7 Holocene History of Arctic Ice Shelves / John H. England, David J.A. Evans, and Thomas R. Lakeman 8 An Overview of Paleoenvironmental Techniques for the Reconstruction of Past Arctic Ice Shelf Dynamics / Dermot Antoniades 9 Arctic Ice Shelf Ecosystems / Anne D. Jungblut, Derek Mueller, and Warwick F. Vincent Part III Arctic Ice Shelf Calving Processes and Ice Islands 10 Factors Contributing to Recent Arctic Ice Shelf Losses / Luke Copland, Colleen Mortimer, Adrienne White, Miriam Richer McCallum, and Derek Mueller 11 Ice Island Drift Mechanisms in the Canadian High Arctic / Wesley Van Wychen and Luke Copland 12 Recent Changes in Sea Ice Plugs Along the Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago / Sierra Pope, Luke Copland, and Bea Alt 13 The Military Importance and Use of Ice Islands During the Cold War / William F. Althoff 14 Russian Drifting Stations on Arctic Ice Islands / Igor M. Belkin and Sergey A. Kessel 15 Risk Analysis and Hazards of Ice Islands / Mark Fuglem and Ian Jordaan Erratum Index