ALBERT

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components 15.3.4

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS PROLOGUE INDICATORS INTRODUCTION ICE VOLUME Glacial Moraines Shorelines Oxygen Isotopes Summary TEMPERATURE Mountaintop Temperatures Polar Temperatures Sea Surface Teiμperatures Continental Temperatures The Tropical Temperature Dilemma ARIDITY Precipitation Rock Varnish Dust ATMOSPHERIC GAS COMPOSITION Carbon Dioxide Methane Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Gases OCEANIC CHEMISTRY Trace Metals Carbon Isotopes RATE OF DEEP SEA VENTUATION CO3 Concentration Paleo pH Preservation Events CLOCKS INTRODUCTION THE RADIOCARBON CLOCK ANNUAL CLOCKS THE URANIUM-THORIUM CLOCK CLOCKS READING MORE THAN 50,000 YEARS THE POTASSIUM-ARGON CLOCK PLANETARY CLOCKS IN SITU PRODUCTION CLOCKS SUNDIALS RECORDS SETTING THE STAGE: 55 MILLION YEARS OF POLAR COOLING MILANKOVITCH CYCLES THE LAST 160,000 YEARS THE LAST TERMINATION DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS HEINRICH EVENTS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS AND HEINRICH EVENTS PHYSICS INTRODUCTION WATER VAPOR THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION FRESH WATER FLUXES MODE SWITCH TRIGGERS EPILOGUE BIBLIOGRAPHY PROBLEMS APPENDICES ∑CO2 and Alkalinity in the Sea What Drives Glacial Cycles? (Scientific American) The Great Ocean Conveyor (Oceanography)

Note: Einleitung: Paläoklima und aktuelles Klima / Jörg F. W. Negendank. - Prozesse im rezenten Klimasystem / Ernst Augstein. - Stabile Kohlenstoffisotope und Nährsalzgehalt des Südatlantiks im Spätquartär / Andreas Mackensen, Hannes Grobe, Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten. - Klimainformation aus dem grönländischen Inlandeis / Sepp Kipfstuhl. - Die Quartärfolge der Großtagebaue Mitteldeutschlands als Klima-Archiv / Frank Wolfgang Junge, Tatjana Böttger, Achim Hiller. - See-Sedimente und Paläoklimarekonstruktionen / Bernd Zolitschka. - Einflüsse solarer Aktivität auf die Sedimentation in Maarseen / Heinz Vos, Ana Sánchez, Jörg F. W. Negendank, Bert Rein, Bernd Zolitschka. - Kohlenstoffisotope von Bäumen als Klimaindikatoren / Gerd. H. Schleser, Gerd Helle, Achim Bräuning. - Klimazustände und Klimaänderungen in der Vergangenheit / Peter Trimborn, Josef Lipp. - Klimazyklen, Erdkerndynamik und Schwerefeld / Horst Jochmann, Hans Greiner-Mai. - Wärme- und Wasserdampfaustausch zwischen Atmosphäre und Erdboden / Franz Fiedler, Gerhard Adrian, Aurelia Müller. - Wirkungen des Luftverkehrs auf das Klima / Robert Sausen, Michael Ponater, Ines Köhler, Sabine Brinkop. - Die Bedeutung des Wassers in der Atmosphäre / Erhard Raschke, Ute Karstens. - Klimaveränderungen und Kohlenstoffhaushalt / Uwe Franko und Burkhard Oelschlägel.

Note: Contents: Figures. - Tables. - Preface. - Illustrations. - 1. Introduction. - 1.1 Background. - 1.2 Scope of the text. - 1.3 World vegetation types. - 1.3.1 Vegetation formations and zones. - 1.3.2 Zonobiomes. - 1.3.3 Exoclimates. - 1.3.4 The Canadian vegetation classification system. - 1.3.5 Ecozones. - 1.3.6 Floristic realms. - 1.3.7 Plant species nomenclature. - 1.4 Soil classification and soil systems. - 1.5 Climatic parameters. - 1.5.1 The role of climate. - 1.5.2 Moisture indices. - 1.5.3 Climate diagrams. - 1.6 Plant strategies. - 1.6.1 Competition. - 1.6.2 Hydrature and moisture regulation. - 1.6.3 Life forms. - 1.6.4 Leaf morphology and adaptation. - 1.7 Biomass and net primary productivity. - 2. Tundra 2.1 Tundra distribution. - 2.2 Climate. - 2.3 Soils. - 2.4 Tundra in North America. - 2.4.1 Ecoclimatic sub-provinces and regions. - 2.4.2 High and mid-Arctic. - 2.4.3 Low Arctic. - 2.5 Tundra in other Northern Hemisphere locations. - 2.5.1 Arctic Tundra. - 2.5.2 Typical Tundra. - 2.5.3 Southern Tundra. - 2.5.4 Tundra on Arctic Islands. - 2.6 Tundea in the Southern Hemisphere. - 2.6.1 The Antarctic Subregion. - 2.6.2 The Sub-Antarctic Subregion. - 2.7 Alpine Tundra. - 2.7.1 Temperate-latitude alpine Tundra. - 2.7.2 Low-latitude (equatorial) alpine Tundra. - 2.8 Primary production and phytomass in Tundra. - 3. Forest-Tundra or Boreal-Tundra Ecotone. - 3.1 Definitions. - 3.2 Distribution. - 3.3 Climate. - 3.4 Soils. - 3.5 Forest-Tundra in Canada. - 3.5.1 Ecoclimatic sub-provinces. - 3.5.2 The shrub subzone (Northern Forest-Tundra). - 3.5.3 The forest subzone (Southern Forest Tundra). - 3.6 Eurasian Forest-Tundra. - 3.7 Primary production and phytomass in forest-Tundra. - 4. Boreal Forest (Taiga) and Mixed Forest Transition. - 4.1 Distribution. - 4.2 Climate. - 4.3 Soils. - 4.4 Boreal forest in North America. - 4.4.1 Open Lichen Woodland. - 4.4.2 Northern Coniferous Forest. - 4.4.3 Mixed-Forest (Boreal-Broadleaf ecotone). - 4.4.4 Mixed-Forest transition to grassland (Northern Mixedwoods). - 4.5 Eurasian Boreal. - 4.5.1 The European Boreal. - 4.5.2 The Siberian Boreal. - 4.5.3 Northwest Pacific Fringe Boreal. - 4.6 Primary production and phytomass in boreal forest. - 5. Prairie (Steppe). - 5.1 Distribution. - 5.2 Climate. - 5.2.1 North America. - 5.2.2 Climate in Eurasia and elsewhere. - 5.3 Soils. - 5.4 Prairie in North America. - 5.4.1 The Canadian Prairie. - 5.4.2 Prairie in the USA. - 5.5. Eurasian Steppe. - 5.6 Southern Hemisphere Grasslands. - 5.6.1 The High Veldt. - 5.6.2 The Pampas/Campos Grasslands. - 5.7 Primary production and biomass. - 6. Cordilleran Environments in Western North America. - 6.1 Canada's Cordilleran ecoclimatic provinces. - 6.1.1 Distribution. - 6.1.2 Climate. - 6.1.3 Soils. - 6.1.4 Pacific Coastal Mesothermal Forest. - 6.1.5 Pacific Coastal Subalpine Forest. - 6.1.6 Cordilleran Forest Region. - 6.1.7 Cordilleran Cold Steppe and Savanna Forst. - 6.1.8 Canadian Cordilleran Subalpine Forest. - 6.1.9 Alpine Tundra and Boreal Forest. - 6.2 The Cordilleran Region in the USA. - 6.2.1 Distribution. - 6.2.2 Northwest Coast Conifer-Hardwood Forests. - 6.2.3 Montane Pine Forests. - 6.2.4 Sagebrush and Grasslands. - 6.2.5 Interior Hemlock-Douglas-Fir-Larch. - 6.2.6 Subalpine Forest. - 6.3 Primary Production and Phytomass. - 7. Temperate Deciduous Forests. - 7.1 Distribution. - 7.2 Climate. - 7.3 Soils. - 7.4 Temperate Deciduous Forest in North America. - 7.4.1 Canada. - 7.4.2 United States of America. - 7.4.3 Southern Mexico and South America. - 7.5 Europe. - 7.5.1 Atlantic Deciduous Forest. - 7.5.2 Central European Deciduous Forest. - 7.5.3 East European Deciduous Forest. - 7.6 Asia. - 7.7 Southern Hemisphere. - 7.8 Primary Production and Phytomass. - 8. Wetlands. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Climate. - 8.3 Soils. - 8.4 Canadian Wetland Classification. - 8.4.1 Canadian Wetland Classification System. - 8.4.2 Wetland classes. - 8.4.3 Wetland forms and types. - 8.5 Canadian Wetlands. - 8.5.1 Arctic Wetlands. - 8.5.2 Subarctic Wetlands. - 8.5.3 Boreal Wetlands. - 8.5.4 Prairie Wetlands. - 8.5.5 Temperate Wetlands. - 8.5.6 Oceanic Wetlands. - 8.5.7 Mountain Wetlands. - 8.6 Wetlands in the USA. - 8.7 Eurasian Wetlands. - 8.7.1 European Wetlands. - 8.7.2 Asian Wetlands. - 8.8 Central and South American Wetlands. - 8.9 African Wetlands. - 8.10 Austromalesian and Pacific Wetlands. - 8.11 Phytomass and Primary Production. - 9. Conclusion. - Appendix: Biomials and their local names as used in the text. - Bibliography. - Index.