ALBERT

Note: CONTENTS COMPOSITION OF THE OFFICE CONTENTS INTRODUCTION I. THE POLAR REGIONS: AN URGENT NEED FOR PROTECTION A. EXTREME BUT FRAGILE REGIONS 1. The Arctic Ocean 2. Antarctica B. FRANCE'S RESPONSIBILITY IN THE ANTARCTICA TREATY 1. The origins of the treaty and the Antarctic system 2. Mining a suspended issue 3. Tourism: a new peaceful threat? II. THE POLES: THEIR KEY ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE A. UNDERSTANDING PAST CLIMATES TO UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 1. Recent ice cores from Greenland 2. lce cores from Antarctica 3. Ocean core samples: the transpolar link 4. The future of glacial core sampling B. THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION 1. The general circulation system 2. The importance of the creation of cold, deep waters 3. The Antarctic Ocean, a carbon sink C. THE POLAR REGIONS AT THE HEART OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 1. Will the Arctic ice shelf disappear in the summer? 2. Will Greenland melt completely? 3. Can a diagnosis be made concerning the assessment of Antarctica's mass? III. FRANCE'S FIRST-CLASS BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH A. AN EXCEPTIONAL HERITAGE 1. A unique geographic situation 2. 40 to 50 years of continuous observations B. ADAPTING TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS 1. Adapting to climate change 2. Understanding the adaptation to extreme environments C. INNOVATIVE RESEARCH 1. The equipment of animals 2. Hormonal, molecular and genetic research 3. The implications for the organization of research IV. OBSERVING THE EARTH, OBSERVING THE UNIVERSE A. OBSERVATORIES FOR THE EARTH AND THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 1. Seismology 2. Measuring gravity and terrestrial magnetism 3. Studying the stratosphere and monitoring the ozone layer '1. Observing the ionosphere B. ANTARCTIC ASTRONOMY: A NEW FIELD 1. Recognizing this fast-growing discipline 2. Concordia: the best site in the world/or astronomic observations? 3. Searching for meteorites in Antarctica 4. Measuring cosmic radiation V. PREPARING THE SPACE MISSIONS IN ANTARCTICA A. PREPARING AND VALIDATING THE SATELLITE MISSIONS 1. Space and the polar regions: preparation complementarity 2. Validating on the ground observations made from space B. PREPARING MANNED SPACE FLIGHTS AND MOON OR MARS-BASED STATIONS 1. Concordia - a unique research site 2. Studying behaviour in an extreme environment 3. Physiological studies C. TESTING EXPLORATION MATERIAL 1. American examples and projects 2. European perspectives VI. FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE POLAR REGIONS A. DEVELOPING FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE ARCTIC, STRENGTHENING ITS PRESENCE IN ANTARCTICA 1. Developing France's Arctic presence 2. Strengthening our presence in the southern regions B. IPEV (THE FRENCH PAUL-EMILE VICTOR INSTITUTE), AN AGENCY OF MEANS VII. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: A NECESSITY AND A GOAL A. HOW TO ENCOURAGE A EUROPEAN PROCESS? 1. The European Union: a sufficient framework? 2. The practical and political limitations of cooperation 3. Towards an Italian-German-French engine? B. WHAT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION FOR FRANCE ON THE EVE OF THE IPY? 1. Excellence, proximity and longevity: three key criteria for cooperation 2. Developing a network for the stations VIII. THE RAPPORTEUR'S CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS 1. Strategic regions 2. Regions to protect 3. Essential regions for understanding climate change 4. Life in the polar regions: of great value to humanity 5. The polar regions: an observatory for the Earth 6. Strongly support the development of astronomy at Concordia 7. Take advantage of the polar regions' complementarity with the space missions 8. Strengthen France's presence in the polar regions 9. Reorganize France's presence in the polar regions 10. Better coordinate polar research 11. Solve the problem of insufficient funding for polar-research logistics 12. Define a French strategy for European and international cooperation APPENDICES SPEAKERS PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1 MARCH 2007 SEMINAR: "OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE" PART ONE: LUNCH-DEBATE I. MR. HENRI REVOL, PRESIDENT OF THE OPECST II. MR. JEAN-LOUIS ETIENNE PART TWO: OFFICIAL OPENING SESSION I. INTRODUCTION A. MR. CHRISTIAN GAUDIN, SENATOR, RAPPORTEUR FOR THE OPECST B. MS. CATHERINE BRECHIGNAC, PRESIDENT OF THE CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE (CNRS) C. MR. MICHEL JARRAUD, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION D. MR. CHRISTIAN COINTAT, SENATOR, PRESIDENT OF THE ANTARCTIC AND ARTIC STUDY GROUP II. OFFICIAL OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE BY MR. CHRISTIAN PONCELET, PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE III. THEMATIC DEBATE-THE POLES: INDICATORS AND EVIDENCE FOR MANKIND A. MS. NELLY OLIN, MINISTER OF ECOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT B. MS. VALERIE MASSON-DELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST, CEA C. MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST, CNRS D. MS. JOELLE ROBERT-LAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST, CNRS E. DEBATE IV. CLOSING SPEECHES A. MR. FRAN〈;:OIS GOULARD, MINISTER FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AND RESEARCH B. HIS SERENE HIGHNESS PRINCE ALBERT II OF MONACO APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. VALERIE MASSONDELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST - CEA APPENDIX 2: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. JOELLE ROBERTLAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST - CNRS APPENDIX 3: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST- CNRS

Note: Contents Preface 1 Data Analysis in Earth Sciences 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Collecting Data 1.3 Types of Data 1.4 Methods of Data Analysis Recommended Reading 2 Introduction to MATLAB 2.1 MATLAB in Earth Sciences 2.2 Getting Started 2.3 The Syntax 2.4 Data Storage 2.5 Data Handling 2.6 Scripts and Functions 2.7 Basic Visualization Tools Recommended Reading 3 Univariate Statistics 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Empirical Distributions Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Dispersion 3.3 Example of Empirical Distributions 3.4 Theoretical Distributions Uniform Distribution Binomial or Bernoulli Distribution Poisson Distribution Normal or Gaussian Distribution Logarithmic Normal or Log-Normal Distribution Student's t Distribution Fisher's F Distribution Χ2 or Chi-Squared Distribution 3.5 Example ofTheoretical Distributions 3.6 Thet-Test 3.7 TheF-Test 3.8 The Χ2-Test Recommended Reading 4 Bivariate Statistics 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Pearson's Correlation Coefficient 4.3 Classical Linear Regression Analysis and Prediction 4.4 Analyzing the Residuals 4.5 Bootstrap Estimates of the Regression Coefficients 4.6 Jackknife Estimates of the Regression Coefficients 4.7 Cross Validation 4.8 Reduced Major Axis Regression 4.9 Curvilinear Regression Recommended Reading 5 Time-Series Analysis 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Generating Signals 5.3 Blackman-Tukey Autospectral Analysis 5.4 Blackman-Tukey Crossspectral Analysis 5.5 Interpolating and Analyzing Unevenly-Spaced Data 5.6 Evolutionary Blackman-Tukey Powerspectrum 5.7 Lomb-Scargle Powerspectrum 5.8 Wavelet Powerspectrum 5.9 Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis (by N. Marwarn) Phase Space Portrait Recurrence Plots Recommended Reading 6 Signal Processing 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Generating Signals 6.3 Linear Time-Invariant Systems 6.4 Convolution and Filtering 6.5 Comparing Functions for Filtering Data Series 6.6 Recursive and Nonrecursive Filters 6.7 Impulse Response 6.8 Frequency Response 6.9 Filter Design 6.10 Adaptive Filtering Recommended Reading 7 Spatial Data 7.1 Types of Spatial Data 7.2 The GSHHS Shoreline Data Set 7.3 The 2-Minute Gridded Global Elevation Data ETOPO2 7.4 The 30-Arc Seconds Elevation Model GTOPO30 7.5 The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SRTM 7.6 Gridding and Contouring Background 7.7 Gridding Example 7.8 Comparison of Methods and Potential Artifacts 7.9 Statistics of Point Distributions Test for Uniform Distribution Test for Random Distribution Test for Clustering 7.10 Analysis of Digital Elevation Models (by R. Gebbers) 7.11 Geostatistics and Kriging (by R. Gebbers) Theorical Background Preceding Analysis Variography with the Classical Variogram Kriging Discussion of Kriging Recommended Reading 8 Image Processing 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Datastorage 8.3 Importing, Processing and Exporting Images 8.4 Importing, Processing and Exporting Satellite Images 8.5 Georeferencing Satellite Images 8.6 Digitizing from the Screen Recommended Reading 9 Multivariate Statistics 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Principal Component Analysis 9.3 Independent Component Analysis (by N. Marwan) 9.4 Cluster Analysis Recommended Reading 10 Statistics on Directional Data 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Graphical Representation 10.3 Empirical Distributions 10.4 Theoretical Distributions 10.5 Test for Randomness of Directional Data 10.6 Test for the Significance of a Mean Direction 10.7 Test for the Difference of Two Sets of Directions Recommended Reading General Index

Note: Contents Preface PART I Framework of Climate Science CHAPTER 1 Overview of Climate Science Climate and Climate Change 1-1 Geologic Time Tools of Climate Science: Temperature Scales 1-2 How This Book Is Organized Development of Climate Science 1-3 How Scientists Study Climate Change Overview of the Climate System 1-4 Components of the Climate System 1-5 Climate Forcing 1-6 Climate System Responses 1-7 Time Scales of Forcing Versus Response 1-8 Differing Response Rates and Climate-System Interactions 1-9 Feedbacks in the Climate System Climate Interactions and Feedbacks: Positive and Negative Feedbacks CHAPTER 2 Climate Archives, Data, and Models Climate Archives, Dating, and Resolution 2-1 Types of Archives 2-2 Dating Climate Records 2-3 Climatic Resolution Climatic Data 2-4 Biotic Data 2-5 Geological and Geochemical Data Climate Models 2-6 Physical Climate Models 2-7 Geochemical Models PART II Tectonic-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 3 CO2and Long-Term Climate Greenhouse Worlds Faint Young Sun Paradox Carbon Exchanges Between Rocks and the Atmosphere 3-1 Volcanic Input of Carbon from Rocks to the Atmosphere 3-2 Removal of CO2 from the Atmosphere by Chemical Weathering Climatic Factors That Control Chemical Weathering Is Chemical Weathering Earth’s Thermostat? 3-3 Greenhouse Role of Water Vapor Is Life the Ultimate Control on Earth’s Thermostat? 3-4 Gaia Hypothesis Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon Subcycle Was There a “Thermostat Malfunction”? A Snowball Earth? CHAPTER Plate Tectonics and Long-Term Climate Plate Tectonics 4-1 Structure and Composition of Tectonic Plates 4-2 Evidence of Past Plate Motions Polar Position Hypothesis 4-3 Glaciations and Continental Positions Since 500 Myr Ago Modeling Climate on the Supercontinent Pangaea 4-4 Input to the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Brief Glaciation 440 Myr Ago 4-5 Output from the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Tectonic Control of CO2 Input: BLAG Spreading-Rate Hypothesis 4-6 Control of CO2 Input by Seafloor Spreading 4-7 Initial Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis Tectonic Control of CO2Removal: Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis 4-8 Rock Exposure and Chemical Weathering 4-9 Case Study: The Wind River Basin of Wyoming 4-10 Uplift and Chemical Weathering 4-11 Case Study: Weathering in the Amazon Basin 4-12 Weathering: Both a Climate Forcing and a Feedback? CHAPTER 5 Greenhouse Climate What Explains the Warmth 100 Myr Ago? 5-1 Model Simulations of the Cretaceous Greenhouse 5-2 What Explains the Data-Model Mismatch? 5-3 Relevance of Past Greenhouse Climate to the Future Sea Level Changes and Climate 5-4 Causes of Tectonic-Scale Changes in Sea Level 5-5 Effect of Changes in Sea Level on Climate Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Calculating Changes in Sea Level Asteroid Impact Large and Abrupt Greenhouse Episode near 50 Myr Ago CHAPTER 6 From Greenhouse to Icehouse: The Last 50 Million Years Global Climate Change Since 50 Myr Ago 6-1 Evidence from Ice and Vegetation 6-2 Evidence from Oxygen Isotope Measurements 6-3 Evidence from Mg/Ca Measurements Do Changes in Geography Explain the Cooling? 6-4 Gateway Hypothesis 6-5 Assessment of Gateway Changes Hypotheses Linked to Changes in CO2 6-6 Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis 6-7 Evaluation of the Uplift Weathering Hypothesis Climate DebateTiming of the Uplift in Western North America Future Climate Change at Tectonic Scales Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon: Monterrey Hypothesis PART III Orbital-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 7 Astronomical Control of Solar Radiation Earth’s Orbit Today 7-1 Earth’s Tilted Axis of Rotation and the Seasons 7-2 Earth’s Eccentric Orbit: Distance Between Earth and Sun Long-Term Changes in Earth’s Orbit 7-3 Changes in Earth’s Axial Tilt Through Time Tools of Climate Science: Cycles and Modulation 7-4 Changes in Earth’s Eccentric Orbit Through Time 7-5 Precession of the Solstices and Equinoxes Around Earth’s Orbit Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Earth’s Precession as a Sine Wave Changes in Insolation Received on Earth 7-6 Insolation Changes by Month and Season 7-7 Insolation Changes by Caloric Seasons Searching for Orbital-Scale Changes in Climatic Records 7-8 Time Series Analysis 7-9 Effects of Undersampling Climate Records 7-10 Tectonic-Scale Changes in Earth’s Orbit CHAPTER 8 Insolation Control of Monsoons Monsoon Circulations 8-1 Orbital-Scale Control of Summer Monsoons Orbital-Scale Changes in North African Summer Monsoons 8-2 “Stinky Muds” in the Mediteranean 8-3 Freshwater Diatoms in the Tropical Atlantic 8-4 Upwelling in the Equatorial Atlantic Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis: Regional Assessment 8-5 Cave Speleothems in China and Brazil 8-6 Phasing of Summer Monsoons Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Insolation-Driven Monsoon Responses: Chronometer for Tuning Monsoon Forcing Earlier in Earth’s History 8-7 Monsoons on Pangaea 200 Myr Ago 8-8 Joint Tectonic and Orbital Control of Monsoons CHAPTER 9 Insolation Control of Ice Sheets Milankovitch Theory: Orbital Control of Ice Sheets Modeling the Behavior of Ice Sheets 9-1 Insolation Control of Ice Sheet Size 9-2 Ice Sheets Lag Behind Summer Insolation Forcing 9-3 Delayed Bedrock Response Beneath Ice Sheets Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Ice Volume Response to Insolation 9-4 Full Cycle of Ice Growth and Decay 9-5 Ice Slipping and Calving Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet History 9-6 Ice Sheet History: δ18O Evidence 9-7 Confirming Ice Volume Changes: Coral Reefs and Sea Level Is Milankovich’s Theory the Full Answer? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Sea Level on Uplifting Islands CHAPTER 10 Orbital-Scale Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Methane Ice Cores 10-1 Drilling and Dating Ice Cores 10-2 Verifying Ice-Core Measurements of Ancient Air 10-3 Orbital-Scale Carbon Transfers: Carbon Isotopes Orbital-Scale Changes in CO2 10-4 Where Did the Missing Carbon Go? 10-5 δ13C Evidence of Carbon Transfer How Did the Carbon Get into the Deep Ocean? 10-6 Increased CO2 Solubility in Seawater 10-7 Biological Transfer from Surface Waters A Closer Look at Climate Science: Using δ13C to Measure Carbon Pumping 10-8 Changes in Deep-Water Circulation Orbital-Scale Changes in CH4 Orbital-Scale Climatic Roles: CO2and CH4 CHAPTER 11 Orbital-Scale Interactions, Feedbacks, and Unsolved Problems Climatic Responses Driven by the Ice Sheets Mystery of the 41,000-Year Glacial World 11-1 Did Insolation Really Vary Mainly at 41,000 Years? 11-2 Interhemispheric Cancellation of 23,000-Year Ice Volume Responses? 11-3 CO2 Feedback at 41,000 Years? Mystery of the ~100,000-Year Glacial World 11-4 How Is the Northern Ice Signal Transferred South? Why did the Northern Ice Sheets Vary at ~100,000 Years? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Link Between Forcing and the Time Constants of Ice Response 11-5 Ice Interactions with Bedrock 11-6 Ice Interactions with the Local Environment 11-7 Ice Interactions with Greenhouse Gases PART IV Deglacial Climate Change CHAPTER 12 Last Glacial Maximum Glacial World: More Ice, Less Gas 12-1 Project CLIMAP: Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum 12-2 How Large Were the Ice Sheets? 12-3 Glacial Dirt and Winds Testing Model Simulations Against Biotic Data 12-4 COHMAP: Data-Model Comparisons 12-5 Pollen: Indicator of Climate on the Continents 12-6 Using Pollen for Data-Model Comparisons Data-Model Comparisons of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-7 Model Simulations of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-8 Climate Changes near the Northern Ice Sheets 12-9 Climate Changes far from the Northern Ice Sheets How Cold Were the Glacial Tropics? 12-10 Evidence for a Small Tropical Cooling 12-11 Evidence for a Large Tropical Cooling 12-12 Actual Cooling Was Medium-Small CHAPTER 13 Climate During and Since the Last Deglaciation Fire and Ice: Shift in the Balance of Power 13-1 When Did the Ice Sheets Melt? 13-2 Coral Reefs and Rising Sea Level 13-3 Glitches in the Deglaciation: Deglacial Two-Step To

Note: Contents: 1 The Coastal Zone - a Domain of Global Interactions. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 What is the Coastal Zone?. - 1.3 System and Human Attributes of the Coastal Zone. - 1.3.1 Coastal Ecosystems. - 1.3.2 Variability in Coastal Ecosystems. - 1.4 Changes to the Coastal Zone. - 1.4.1 Pressures on the Coastal Zone from Natural Forcing. - 1.4.2 Pressures on the Coastal Zone from Human Forcing. - 1.4.3 Economics and Coastal Zone Change. - 1.5 Measuring Change and Status of the Coastal Zone at the Global Scale - LOICZ Approaches and Tools. - 1.5.1 Biogeochemical Fluxes of C, N and P. - 1.5.2 Typology Approach to Scaling and Globalisation. - 1.5.3 Socio-economic Evaluations. - 1.5.4 River Basins - Material Fluxes and Human Pressures. - 1.5.5 Key Thematic Issues. - 1.6 Responses to Change. - References. - 2 Dynamics of the Coastal Zone. - 2.1 Introduction. - 2.2 Impacts of Local, Regional and Global Sea-level Fluctuations. - 2.2.1 Processes and Mechanisms: Coastal Dynamics. - 2.2.2 Evolving Morphology and Boundary Conditions. - 2.2.3 Coastal Storms and Coastal Protection. - 2.3 Changes in the Flux of Water and Sediment. - 2.3.1 Processes and Mechanisms. - 2.3.2 Sediment Flux to the Coast: Climate versus Humans. - 2.4 Estuarine Interactions. - 2.5 Groundwater Inputs to the Coastal Zone. - 2.5.1 A New Understanding. - 2.5.2 Advective Porewater Exchange. - 2.5.3 Magnitude of Submarine Groundwater Discharge. - 2.5.4 Biogeochemical Implications. - 2.6 Influence of Human Activities on Material Fluxes. - 2.6.1 The Role of Dams and Other Land Transformations. - 2.6.2 Ecosystem Health and Diversity. - 2.6.3 The Vitality of Coastal Wetlands, Mangroves and Reefs. - 2.6.4 Sediment Dispersion and Grain Size Effects. - 2.7 Summary. - 2.7.1 Impacts of Local, Regional and Global Sea-level Fluctuations. - 2.7.2 Sediment Flux to the Coast. - 2.7.3 Dynamics at the Estuarine Interface. - 2.7.4 Groundwater Inputs. - 2.7.5 The Human Dynamic. - References. - 3 C, N, P Fluxes in the Coastal Zone. - 3.1 Introduction. - 3.1.1 The Coastal Zone and Fluxes. - 3.1.2 Elemental Cycles and Fluxes. - 3.2 Estimates of C, N and P Fluxes in the Coastal Zone. - 3.2.1 Current Information Availability. - 3.2.2 Fluxes and Variability of Fluxes. - 3.2.3 Non-conservative Fluxes: Their Distributions, Relationships to Other Variables and Biogeochemical Interpretation. - 3.3 Classification of Coastal Fluxes. - 3.3.1 Budget Sites and Coastal Areas: Sizes, Scales and Representation. - 3.3.2 Land versus Ocean Dominance of Biogeochemical Processes: Dynamic Factors in Coastal Classification. - 3.3.3 Natural and Anthropogenic Factors: Pristine to Highly Altered. - 3.3.4 Budget Sites as Representatives of the Global System. - 3.3.5 Typology for Flux Extrapolation. - 3.3.6 Prospects for Future Fluxes and Their Assessment. - 3.4 Conclusions. - 3.4.1 Biogeochemical Systems and Nutrient Loads. - 3.4.2 Scale, Resolution and Generalisation. - 3.4.3 Infrastructure and Methodology. - 3.5 Recommendations. - 3.5.1 Concepts and Methodology. - References. - 4 The Catchment to Coast Continuum. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.1.1 The LOICZ-Basins Approach. - 4.2 South America. - 4.2.1 Overview of South American River Catchment-Coastal Zone Systems - Geography and Climate. - 4.2.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts. - 4.2.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends. - 4.2.4 Conclusions - South America . -4.3 Africa. - 4.3.1 Overview of African River Catchment - Coastal Zone Systems - Geography and Climate. - 4.3.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts. - 4.3.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends. - 4.3.4 Conclusions - Africa. - 4.4 East Asia. - 4.4.1 Overview of East Asian River Catchment - Coastal Zone Systems - Geography and Climate. - 4.4.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts. - 4.4.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends. - 4.4.4 Conclusions - East Asia. - 4.5 Russian Arctic. - 4.5.1 Overview of Russian Arctic River Catchment - Coastal Zone Systems - Geography and Climate. - 4.5.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts. - 4.5.3 State Changes, Impacts and Future Trends. - 4.5.4 Conclusions - Russian Arctic. - 4.6 Europe - Catchment-Coast Interactions. - 4.6.1 Overview of the European Coastal Zone/Catchment Systems. - 4.6.2 Assessment of Land-based Drivers, Pressures and Coastal Impacts. - 4.6.3 Conclusions - Europe. - 4.7 Towards Coupled Coastal and River Catchment Management: DPSIR Application into Scenarios for Europe. - 4.7.1 Introduction. - 4.7.2 Scenarios and Coastal Futures. - 4.7.3 Application of Scenarios: an Example for Europe. - 4.8 Summary and Conclusions. - 4.8.1 Catchments and Changes. - 4.8.2 Information Gaps. - References. - 5 Synthesis of Main Findings and Conclusions. - 5.1 Global Change and Sustainable Use of Earth's Coastal Zones. - 5.2 Progress in Meeting IGBP-LOICZ Goals. - 5.3 Key Findings. - 5.3.1 The Coastal Domain. - 5.3.2 River Basins: Assessment of Human-induced Land-based Drivers and Pressures. - 5.3.3 Material Fluxes. - 5.3.4 Biogeochemical Budgets. - 5.4 Now and into the Future. - 5.4.1 River Basin Factors. - 5.4.2 Material Fluxes. - 5.4.3 Biogeochemical Budgets. - 5.5 The LOICZ Contribution. - 5.6 Implications for Management. - 5.7 The Future of LOICZ. - 5.7.1 The Future Challenges for LOICZ. - 5.7.2 The Potential for LOICZ to Contribute to Future Coastal Management Challenges. - References. - Appendix. - A.1 LOICZ Reports and Studies and Key Publications. - A.2 Acronyms and Abbreviations. - Index.

Note: CONTENTS: PREFACE. - FOREWORD. - CONTENTS. - REVIEW. - 1. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness – A Review of Current Techniques and Future Possibilities / Peter Wadhams. - PART 1. HOW WE MEASURE SEA ICE THICKNESS. - 2. Ice Mass Balance Buoy: An Instrument to Measure and Attribute Changes in Ice Thickness / Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge, Donald K. Perovich, Cathleen Geiger, Bruce C. Elder and Kerry Claffey. - 3. A Review of the Use of Sonar on Underwater Vehicles to Obtain Information on Sea Ice Draft / Jeremy P. Wilkinson, Peter Wadhams and Nick E. Hughes. - 4. Key Characteristics of Helicopter Electromagnetic Sea Ice Thickness Mapping Resolution, Accuracy and Footprint / Andreas Pfaffling, Christian Haas and James E. Reid. - 5. The Simulated Seasonal Variability of the Ku-band Radar Altimeter Effective Scattering Surface Depth in Sea Ice / Rasmus T. Tonboe, Søren Andersen, Rashpal S. Gill and Leif Toudal Pedersen. - 6. SAR Motion Products: Tools for Monitoring Changes in Sea Ice Mass Balance and Thickness Distribution / Cathleen A. Geiger, Mani V. Thomas, and Chandra Kambhamettu. - 7. Classification of GreenICE SAR Data Using Fuzzy Screening Method / Rashpal S. Gill and Rasmus T. Tonboe. - 8. Sea Ice Freeboard from ICESat – A Comparison with Airborne Lidar Measurements / Henriette Skourup and Rene Forsberg. - 9. On the use of helicopter-borne Radar Backscatter Polarization Ratio measurements at L-Band to estimate the ice thickness / Stefan Kern, Martin Gade, Christian Haas, Andreas Pfaffling, and Gerd Müller. - 10. Satellite Thermal Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Comparison / Søren Andersen, Rasmus T. Tonboe and Lars Kaleschke. - PART 2. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THICKNESS CHANGES?. - 11. GreenICE Sediment Cores Reveal Reduced Last Interglacial Arctic Sea Ice Cover / Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen, Naja Mikkelsen, Susanne J. Lassen, Emma Sheldon, Yngve Kristoffersen. - 12. Airborne Electromagnetic Measurements of Sea Ice Thickness: Methods and Applications / Christian Haas, Sibylle Goebell, Stefan Hendricks, Torge Martin, Andreas Pfaffling, Carola von Saldern. - 13. Recent Changes in the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in the Russian Arctic / João Rodrigues. - 14. Spring Sea Ice Thickness in the Western Fram Strait: Preliminary Results / Sebastien Gerland, Christian Haas, Richard Hall, Jürgen Holfort, Edmond Hansen, Terje Brink Løyning, and Angelika Renner. - 15. Sea Ice Thickness, Geoid and Ocean Topography in the Arctic Ocean from ICESat and GRACE / Rene Forsberg, Henriette Skourup. - 16. Utilization of Multiple Satellite Sensors to Estimate Sea Ice Volume Flux through Fram Strait / Gunnar Spreen, Stefan Kern, and Detlef Stammer. - 17. Sea ice Thickness Estimates from Airborne Laser Scanning / Sine M. Hvidegaard, Rene Forsberg, and Henriette Skourup. - 18. Effect of the Physical Description of Sea Ice on the Modelled Mean Sea Ice Thickness on the Arctic Ocean / Jari Haapala. - PART 3. SEA ICE EXTENT CHANGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY. - 19. The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment: Changing Marine Access and a Critical Need for Improved Sea Ice Thickness Information / Lawson W. Brigham. - 20. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness: Implications for Arctic Tourism / John M. Snyder. - 21. Recent Changes in the Sea Ice Distribution in the Russian Arctic: Ice Extent, Area and Length of the Ice-free Season / João Rodrigues.

Note: INHALT Vorwort Karte Das langsame Erwachen I. Teil GAIAS REPERTOIRE 1. Gaia Die Atmosphäre einer Großtante. Wallace' erstaunlicher Luftozean. Lovelocks Ketzerei: Die Daten sind dürftig, aber sie lebt. Das Eis überschreitet eine Grenze - bis das Plankton den Thermostat verstellt. Die wichtige Albedo. Kohle machen - eine weitere Selbstjustierung von Gaia? 2. Der große Luftozean Die vier Atmosphärenschichten und das große Rätsel, warum Berggipfel, obwohl der Sonne näher, kalt sind. Das Fenster in der Mauer aus Gasen. Die irdischen Zusammenhänge - und wie die Luftverschmutzung sie verändert. Ein Mitsornmernachts-Albtraum in New York. Vom Mauna Loa aus der Erde beim Atmen zusehen. 3. Das gasförmige Treibhaus Anfangszweifel an der Macht des CO2. Ein ziemlich knappes Kohlenstoff-Budget. Dreißig Gase, die die Welt aufheizen. Methan: Sümpfe, Fürze und Rülpser. CFKs - Frankenstein'sche Schöpfungen menschlichen Erfindungsreichtums. Wohin mit all den Gigatonnen? Die Kohlenstoff-Lungen, -Speicher und -Nieren der Erde - und die Kohlenstoff-Gaia. Die Lehre einer Dose Limonade. Der irreführende Mississippi. 4. Die Weisen und die Zwiebelschale Kohlenstoff wirft die Frage nach des Menschen Stellung im Weltall auf. Fumifugium und die Vororte der Hölle. Fouriers frierende Erde. Svante Arrhenius rettet sich vor einer gescheiterten Ehe in Berechnungen und entdeckt den Klimawandel. Orthodoxe ignorieren den weitsichtigen Callendar. Milankovic' Gefängnis-Zyklen triumphieren. Flecken auf der Sonne? Die falsche mittelalterliche Warmzeit. 5. Zeitpassagen Stille Trinker bemächtigen sich der geologischen Formationen. Schlüssel zu Zeitpassagen. Lieber zwischen den Zeiten leben als am Ende aller Zeiten. Die Pianolarolle der Sedimente, auf Sauerstoffund Kohlenstoffisotopen gespielt. Eine Zeit wie die Gegenwart? Norweger entdecken die Fischbraterei des Paläozäns. Das Klima als Tempomat der Evolution: Jede Veränderung verändert das Leben an sich. 6. Im Kühlhaus geboren Vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels von der Wiege in Afrika zur Welteroberung. Geheimnisse in Holz und Eis. Die warmen Felsen Grönlands und der Riesenkern von Dome C. Zehn Jahrtausende eines Achterbahn-Klimas läuten die Modeme ein. Ein paar Sverdrups könnten uns hinwegspülen. 7. Der lange Sommer Das Anthropozän - unsere eigene geologische Epoche. Hält sie aber schon 200 oder 8000 Jahre an? Keine Feldbestellung vor dem Sommer. Ruddimans Gase entmachten Milankovic' Zyklus - oder doch nicht? Als es in Uruk eng wurde. Fagans Hungersnöte und Ruddimans Pest. Eine abgewürgte Eiszeit? 8. Die Toten ausgraben Big Bill Neidjies Weisheit. Kohle, Gas und Öl: Die Reiter der Kohlenstoff-Apokalypse. Vergrabener Sonnenschein und Kohlenstoffgehalt. Eine kurze Geschichte der Kohle. In Newcomens Ära ist Kohle der Universaltreibstoff. Ein Texaner läutet das Kohlenwasserstoff-Jahrhundert ein. Glitschiges Öl und glückliche Herrscherhäuser. Das Dilemma des Negativhaushalts, die wachsende Familie und die unersättliche Abhängigkeit. II. Teil EINE VON ZEHNTAUSEND 9. Die entzauberte Welt Magische Tore passieren. Der Methusalem unter den Korallen. 1976 drehte das Wetter durch - und trieb die Evolution voran. Und noch einmal 1998, diesmal mit El-Niño-Turbo. Wie wichtig wenig gelesene Zeitschriften sind. Scheckenschmetterlinge unter Druck setzen und die Natur in Richtung der Pole peitschen. Von Eichen und Frostspannern. Den Tanganjikasee entvölkern. Den globalen Fingerabdruck der Katastrophe identifizieren. Das verbrannte Nong-Tal. 10. Alarm an den Polen Antarktisches Gras kündet vom Tod der Kryosphäre. Das beständig schmelzende Eis. Pinguine folgen dem verschwindenden Krill, und Salpen übernehmen die Weltmeere. Das Sterben der Lemminge: Mord, nicht Selbstmord. Das Werk des Fichtenborkenkäfers. Wälder erobern die Tundra. Magere Eisbären bekommen keine Drillinge. Das vereiste Pressen der Rentiere. 11. 2050: Das Große Stummelriff? Nichts ist so schön wie ein Korallenriff. Fossile Fische bei Verona. Erstaunliche Vielfalt - in Abwässern erstickt. Die Dornenkrone der Schönheit. Das Los des jungfräulichen Myrmidon Reef. Warum bleichen sie aus? Die meisten sind halb tot, der Rest ist zum Sterben verdammt. Hoffnung auf Migration oder Adaption? Die Lektion des Gobiodon. 12. Eine Warnung von der Goldkröte Marty Crump, die Frau der Stunde. Meist im Untergrund und höchst gefährdet. Die letzte Krötenorgie. Die Parabel vom Quetzal und vom Fischtukan. Sterbende Eidechsen und eine zufällig dastehende Wetterstation. Zwölf Jahre später kennt man den Grund. Der Bauchbrütende Frosch ist verschwunden. Eine globale Entwicklung? 13. flüssiges Gold: Veränderte Niederschläge Die Tragödie im Sahel - auch ein moralisches Desaster. Der Westen Amerikas und der Süden Australiens: Neue Saharas? Der große Durst von Perth. Erlösen Entsalzungsanlagen Sydney? Der dürre Westen - ein Zyklus oder das neue Klima? 14. Eine energiegeladene Zwiebelschale Woher nehmen Stürme ihre Kraft? Von Hitze, Wasser und Hurrikan-Treibstoff. Vom Schwitzen zu Zyklonen: Eine Erklärung für die Wucht von Mitch. Dem Golf von Bengalen bleibt einiges erspart. Europas todbringender Sommer. Rekordhalter USA. Die Kontinente schrumpfen. 15. Mit dem Blanken Hans spielen Wir Küstenbewohner. Wärme: Leichter aus den Ozeanen herauszuholen als hineinzustecken. Der Panzer und der VW-Käfer. Der plötzliche Tod der schnellen Gletscher von Larsen B. Und was ist mit Grönland? Immer wieder die magische Sieben. Ein Schwergewicht kommt in Schwung. Zu 67 Metern verdammt? III. Teil WEISSAGEN ALS WISSENSCHAFT 16. Modellwelten Captain Fitzroy und die Wettervorhersage. Die Welt als rotierende Schüssel. Schon 1975 hatten sie Recht - fälschlicherweise. Pinatubo-Prognosen. Eine schwarze Kugel und der Aufstand der Skeptiker. Zehn globale Zirkulationsmodelle und wie Wolken das Problem vernebeln. Spuckende Ahnen. Können wir mehr Gewissheit haben - und können 90 000 PCs sich irren? Was ist mit mir? Fragen ist menschlich - oder man lässt es lieber. Regionalprognosen und Rückkopplung. Das Ende des englischen Gartens? 17. Extremer Gefahr ausgeliefert? Ein Nachlauf von 50 Jahren und die wahren Kosten von Heckflossen-Chevrolets. Der Ozean lebt in den siebziger Jahren - und auch die Industrie. Das Treibhausrad lässt sich nicht zurückdrehen. Die Schwelle zu extremer Gefahr: 400 oder 1200 Teile pro Million? Oder haben wir sie bereits überschritten? 18. Die Berge ebnen Adieu, Schnee des Kilimandscharo. Inseln im Himmel. Auf dem Gipfel geht es nicht mehr weiter. Ein schreckliches Maß an Gewissheit. Von Paradiesvögeln, Ringelschwanzbeutlern und Baumkängurus. Verlorenes Weltnaturerbe. Nur Anopheles freut sich. 19. Wohin geht die Reise? Von Florida nach Montreal-Bäume auf Wanderschaft. Eucalyptus - das Schicksal von 819 Arten. Abschied von Fynbos und Karru, den schönsten Blumengärten der Welt. In die Ecke gedrängt: Der Südwesten Australiens. Wer weiterziehen kann, hat es gut. Naturschutzgebiete werden zu Todesfallen. Megastudie prophezeit Massensterben - aber werden es eine von fünf oder sechs von zehn Arten sein? 20. Unendliche Tiefen Warum sterben sie, wenn wir sie erblicken? Eine Welt unerforschter Absonderlichkeiten. Von Zungenkiemern, Großmaulhaien und Laternenanglern. Saures Meer und schalenlose Kammmuscheln. Die letzte Auster? 21. Eine Hand voll Joker Die Bedeutung positiver Rückkopplungsschleifen. Das Konzert der drei Szenarien. Das Pentagon kümmert sich um den Golfstrom - und sieht in seinem Versiegen den Untergang der Zivilisation. Genügend viele Sverdrup. Die Geschichte von HadCM3LC und TRIFFID. Wenn Stomata sich schließen: Tod am Amazonas. Die Clathrate sind los! Die Zeitbombe vor Ihrem Strand. Die positive Rückkopplung der Klimaanlagen. 22. Zivilisation: Mit einem Wimmern vorbei? Der Kern der globalen Gesellschaft. Städte sind wie Regenwälder. Eine wie große Klimawelle kann eine Stadt hinwegfegen? Nahrungsmittelproduktion - so spezialisiert wie ein Säbelzahntiger. Schlechte Ernten in einer Welt voll CO2. »Anpassung« als Genozid und