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  • 1
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16 (1). pp. 465-472.
    Publication Date: 2020-07-23
    Description: The Water and Global Change (WATCH) forcing datasets have been created to support the use of hydrological and land surface models for the assessment of the water cycle within climate change studies. They are based on 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) or ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) with temperatures (among other variables) adjusted such that their monthly means match the monthly temperature dataset from the Climatic Research Unit. To this end, daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures within one calendar month have been subjected to a correction involving monthly means of the respective month. As these corrections can be largely different for adjacent months, this procedure potentially leads to implausible differences in daily temperatures across the boundaries of calendar months. We analyze day-to-day temperature fluctuations within and across months and find that across-months differences are significantly larger, mostly in the tropics and frigid zones. Average across-months differences in daily mean temperature are typically between 10% and 40% larger than their corresponding within-months average temperature differences. However, regions with differences up to 200% can be found in tropical Africa. Particularly in regions where snowmelt is a relevant player for hydrology, a few degrees Celsius difference can be decisive for triggering this process. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the same regions, but in a less severe way.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Monthly Weather Review, 125 (5). pp. 819-830.
    Publication Date: 2020-06-30
    Description: In this study, the impact of oceanic data assimilation on ENSO simulations and predictions is investigated. The authors’ main objective is to compare the impact of the assimilation of sea level observations and three-dimensional temperature measurements relative to each other. Three experiments were performed. In a control run the ocean model was forced with observed winds only, and in two assimilation runs three-dimensional temperatures and sea levels were assimilated one by one. The root-mean-square differences between the model solution and observations were computed and heat content anomalies of the upper 275 m compared to each other. Three ensembles of ENSO forecasts were performed additionally to investigate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO predictions. In a control ensemble a hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model was initialized with observed winds only, while either three-dimensional temperatures or sea level data were assimilated during the initialization phase in two additional forecast ensembles. The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies were averaged over the eastern equatorial Pacific and compared to observations. Two different objective skill measures were computed to evaluate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO forecasts. The authors’ experiments indicate that sea level observations contain useful information and that this information can be inserted successfully into an oceanic general circulation model. It is inferred from the forecast ensembles that the benefit of sea level and temperature assimilation is comparable. However, the positive impact of sea level assimilation could be shown more clearly when the forecasted temperature differences rather than the temperature anomalies themselves were compared with observations.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-06-30
    Description: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific simulated by 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. Each model consists of a high-resolution ocean GCM of either the tropical Pacific or near-global means coupled to a moderate- or high-resolution atmospheric GCM, without the use of flux correction. The seasonal behavior of sea surface temperature (SST) and eastern Pacific rainfall is presented for each model. The results show that current state-of-the-art coupled GCMs share important successes and troublesome systematic errors. All 11 models are able to simulate the mean zonal gradient in SST at the equator over the central Pacific. The simulated equatorial cold tongue generally tends to be too strong, too narrow, and extend too far west. SSTs are generally too warm in a broad region west of Peru and in a band near 10°S. This is accompanied in some models by a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) straddling the equator over the eastern Pacific, and in others by an ITCZ that migrates across the equator with the seasons; neither behavior is realistic. There is considerable spread in the simulated seasonal cycles of equatorial SST in the eastern Pacific. Some simulations do capture the annual harmonic quite realistically, although the seasonal cold tongue tends to appear prematurely. Others overestimate the amplitude of the semiannual harmonic. Nonetheless, the results constitute a marked improvement over the simulations of only a few years ago when serious climate drift was still widespread and simulated zonal gradients of SST along the equator were often very weak.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Journal of Climate, 26 (16). pp. 5965-5980.
    Publication Date: 2020-07-24
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific and the analogous Atlantic Niño mode are generated by processes involving coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions known as the Bjerknes feedback. It has been argued that the Atlantic Niño mode is more strongly damped than ENSO, which is presumed to be closer to neutrally stable. In this study the stability of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode is compared via an analysis of the Bjerknes stability index. This index is based on recharge oscillator theory and can be interpreted as the growth rate for coupled modes of ocean–atmosphere variability. Using observational data, an ocean reanalysis product, and output from an ocean general circulation model, the individual terms of the Bjerknes index are calculated for the first time for the Atlantic and then compared to results for the Pacific. Positive thermocline feedbacks in response to wind stress forcing favor anomaly growth in both basins, but they are twice as large in the Pacific compared to the Atlantic. Thermocline feedback is related to the fetch of the zonal winds, which is much greater in the equatorial Pacific than in the equatorial Atlantic due to larger basin size. Negative feedbacks are dominated by thermal damping of sea surface temperature anomalies in both basins. Overall, it is found that both ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode are damped oscillators, but the Atlantic is more strongly damped than the Pacific primarily because of the weaker thermocline feedback.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Monthly Weather Review, 125 . pp. 703-720.
    Publication Date: 2020-06-30
    Description: In this paper the performance of the global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHO-2, which was integrated for 10 years without the application of flux correction, is described. Although the integration is rather short, strong and weak points of this CGCM can be clearly identified, especially in view of the model's performance of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. The latter is simulated with more success relative to the earlier version, ECHO-I. A better representation of the low-level stratus clouds in the atmosphere model associated with a reduction in the shortwave radiative flux at the air-sea interface improved the coupled model's performance in the southeastern tropical oceans, with a strongly reduced warm bias in these regions. Modifications in the atmospheric convection scheme also eliminated the AGCM's tendency to simulate a double ITCZ, and this behavior is maintained in the CGCM simulation. Finally, a new numerical scheme for active tracer advection in the ocean model strongly reduced the numerical mixing, which seems to enhance considerably the level of interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific. One weak point is an overall cold bias in the Tropics and midlatitudes, which typically amounts to 1°C in open ocean regions. Another weak point is the still too strong equatorial cold tongue, which penetrates too far into the western equatorial Pacific. Although this model deficiency is not as pronounced as in ECHO-1, the too strong cold tongue reduces the level of interannual rainfall variability in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Finally, the interannual fluctuations in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are too equatorially trapped, a problem that is also found in ocean-only simulations. Overall, however, the authors believe that the ECHO-2 CGCM has been considerably improved relative to ECHO-1.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (2). ES89-ES92.
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: The workshop on polar lows (PLs) and mesoscale weather extremes attracted 30 scientists from China, France, Germany, Japan, Norway, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to present the most recent findings on PL research and to summarize our present understanding of PLs and mesocyclones (MCs) as well as mesoscale weather extremes in the Arctic and Antarctic (see sidebar for the definition of PLs). The workshop had the following main themes: PL studies using satellite data and in situ observations, climatological aspects, PLs in reanalyses and model simulations, environments for PL genesis and operational aspects, polar mesoscale weather phenomena, and air–ocean–ice interactions. The workshop was concluded by a roundtable discussion resulting in recommendations for future research and actions.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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