Volcanic hazard assessment in the Phlegraean Fields: a contribution based on stratigraphic and historical data

Abstract

Phenomena occurring since 1982 in the Phlegraean Fields, interpreted as precursors of a potential renewal of volcanic activity, have forced us to anticipate some conclusions of a volcanic-hazard study based on the reconstruction of past eruptions in the area, to serve as basis for civil defense preparedness plans. The eruptive history of the Phlegraean Fields suggests a progressive decrease with time in the strength of eruptive phenomena paralleling a migration of vents towards the center of the Phlegraean caldera. Studies concerning the volcanic risk zonation were therefore concentrated on activities during the last 4,500 years and two eruptions (Monte Nuovo and Agnano Monte Spina), that occurred in 1538 and 4,400 years B.P., respectively were selected as the «reference eruptions» from which possible eruption scenarios were drawn.