Abstract
Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorterterm responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this study, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichón eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extend down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60°N and increased easterlies at 30°N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters of 1982–83 and 1991–92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bakan S, Chlond A, Cubasch U, Feichter J, Graf H, Grassl H, Hasselmann K, Kirchner I, Latif M, Roeckner E, Sausen R, Schlese U, Schriever D, Schult I, Schumann U, Sielmann F, Welke W (1991) Climate response to smoke from the burning oil wells in Kuwait. Nature 351:367–371
Bakan S (1982) Strahlungsgetriebene Zellularkonvektion in Schichtwolken. Dissertation, University of Hamburg, Germany
Bartels J (1935) Random fluctuations, persistence, and quasipersistence in geophysical and cosmical periodicities. Terr Magn Atmos Electron 40:1–60
Boville BA (1986) The influence of the polar night jet on the tropospheric circulation in a GCM. J Atmos Sci 41:1132–1142
Bluth GJS, Doiron SD, Krueger AJ, Walter LS, Schnetzler CC (1992) Global tracking of the SO2 clouds from the June, 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 19:151–154
Cress A, Schonwiese C-D (1990) Vulkanische Einflüsse auf die bodennahe und stratosphärische Lufttemperatur der Erde. Ber Inst f Meteorol Geophysik Univ Frankfurt/Main 82, 148 pp
Geller MA, Alpert JC (1980) Planetary wave coupling between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere as a possible sunweather mechanism. J Atmos Sci 37:1197–1215
Graf HF (1986) On El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Hemispheric temperature. Gerlands Beitr Geophys 95:63–75
Graf HF (1992) Arctic radiation deficit and climate variability. Clim Dyn 7:19–28
Graf HF, Perlwitz J, Kirchner I (1993) Northern Hemisphere tropospheric mid-latitude circulation after violent volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett (in press)
Groismann PY (1985) Regional climatic consequences of volcanic eruptions. Meteorol Hydrol 4:39–45 (in Russian)
Groisman PY (1992) Possible regional consequences of the Pinatubo eruption: an empirical approach. Geophys Res Lett 19:1603–1606
Hansen J, Lacis A, Ruedy R, Sato M (1992) Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geophys Res Lett 19:215–218
Jäger H (1992) The Pinatubo cloud observed by Lidar over Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Geophys Res Lett 19:191–194
Jones PD (1988) Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: recent trends and an update to 1987. J Clim 1:654–660
Jones PD, Wigley TML, Folland CK, Parker DE, Angel JK, Lebedeff S, Hansen JE (1988) Evidence for global warming in the past decade. Nature 332:790
Lacis A, Hansen J, Sato M (1992) Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 19:1607–1610
Lough JM, Fritts HC (1987) An assessment of the possible effects of volcanic eruptions on North American climate using treering data, 1602–1900 A.D., Clim Change 10:219–239
Rind D, Balachandran NK, Suozzo R (1992) Climate change and the middle atmosphere. Part II: the impact of volcanic aerosols. J Clim 5:189–208
Robock AD (1984) Climate model simulations of the El Chichón eruption. Geofis Int 23:403–414
Robock AD (1991) The volcanic contribution to climate change of the past 100 years. In: Schlesinger ME (ed) Greenhouse gas-induced climate change: a critical appraisal of simulations and observations. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 429–444
Robock A, Mao J (1992) Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 12:2405–2408
Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Brinkop S, Dümenil L, Esch M, Kirk E, Lunkeit F, Ponater M, Rockel B, Sausen R, Schlese U, Schubert S, Windelband M (1992) Simulation of the present-day climate with the ECHAM model: impact of model physics and resolution. MPI Report No 95
Schmitz G, Grieger N (1980) Model calculations of the structure of planetary waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere as a function of the wind field in the upper stratosphere. Tellus 32:207–214
Schult I (1991) Bildung und Transport von Aerosolteilchen in der Stratosphäre und ihre Bedeutung für den Strahlungshaushalt. Examensarbeit No 11, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
Spencer RW, Christy JR, Grody NC (1990) Global atmospheric temperature monitoring with satellite microwave measurements: method and results 1979–84, J Clim 3:1111–1128
Storch H von, Zwiers FW (1988) Recurrence analysis of climate sensitivity experiments. J Clim 1:157–171
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Graft, HF., Kirchner, I., Robock, A. et al. Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: model versus observations. Climate Dynamics 9, 81–93 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210011
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210011