Abstract
In recent years export-base related models have come under increasing criticism by regional economists. At the same time, the framework is being used implicitly in the great many studies including most socioeconomic environmental impact studies. The paper shows that the various alternatives commonly used at each step in the process of an export-base analysis (i.e., that is to specify one or more equations and estimate an indirect-direct employment multiplier) generates widely varying estimates of that multiplier, A recommendation is made that regional scientists turn their attention to other types of models including input-output frameworks and case studies for determining appropriate multiplier values.
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Lewis, W.C. Export base theory and multiplier estimation: A critique. Ann Reg Sci 10, 58–70 (1976). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01303243
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01303243