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PREDICTING CHANGE IN NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS

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Abstract

Complex systems are characterizedby surprising switches to new behaviours. Evaluating and predicting these changes demands anunderstanding of the behaviour of the whole system. The combined ecosystem-climate system shows chaoticor pseudorandom behaviour, stochastic or trulyrandom behaviour, as well as simple bifurcation andsemi-stability. Semistability involves the suddenchange from a destabilized ’attractor‘ to a newstable attractor which may occur after an apparentlyunpredictable time delay. We present some recentresults for analyzing time series data and for usingsimulations of non-linear models to predict these changes.

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Hansell, R.I.C., Hansell, R.I.C., Craine, I.T. et al. PREDICTING CHANGE IN NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS. Environ Monit Assess 46, 179–190 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005787918882

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