Abstract
The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without anyad hoc adjustment of the parameters.
Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988.
Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allen, C., Hutton, K. Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., Kosobokov, V. G., Kuznetsov, I. V., andRotwain, I. M. (1983),Selfsimilar Premonitory Seismicity Patterns, Abstract, XVIII Congress of IUGG, Hamburg.
Bottari, A., andNeri, G. (1983)Some Statistical Properties of a Sequence of Historical Calabro-Peloration Earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res.88, 1209–1212.
Calcagnile, G., andPanza, G. F. (1981),The Main Characteristics of the Lithosphere-Asthenosphere System in Italy and Surrounding Regions, Pure Appl. Geophys.119, 865–879.
Caputo, M., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Oficerova E. N., Ranzman, E. Ya., Rotwain, I. M., andSoloviev, A. A. (1980),Pattern Recognition of Earthquakes Prone Areas in Italy, Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors21, 305–320.
Caputo, M., Console, R., Gabrielov, A. M., Keilis-Borok, V. I., andSidorenko T. V. (1980),Long-term Premonitory Seismicity Patterns in Italy, Geophys. J. R. Astr. Soc.75, 71–75.
Caputo, M. (1983),The Occurrence of Large Earthquakes in South Italy, Tectonophysics99, 73–83.
CSEM,European-Mediterranean Hypocenters Data File 1976–1988 (CSEM, Strasbourg 1989).
Dmitrieva, O. E., Rotwain, I. M., Keilis-Borok, V. I., andDe Becker, M. (1990),Premonitory Seismicity Patterns in a Platform Region (Ardennes-Rhenish and Brabant Massives, Lower Rhone Graben), 1989, Computational Seismology23, (in press).
ENEL,Catalogue of Earthquakes of Italy, Years 1000–1980, (Publication ENEL, Roma 1980).
Gabrielov, A. M., Dmitrieva, O. E., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Kosobokov, V. G., Kuznetsov, I. V., Levshina, T. A., Mirzoev, K. M., Molchan, G. M., Negmatullaev, S. Kh., Pisarenko, V. F., Prozorov, A. G., Rinehart, W., Rotwain, I. M., Shebalin, P. N., Shnirman, M. G., and Schreider, S. Yu.,Algorithms of Long-Term Earthquakes' Prediction, International School for Research Oriented to Earthquake Prediction-Algorithms, Software and Data Handling (Lima, Peru, September 1986).
Gelfand, I. M., Guberman, Sh. A., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., Press, F., Ranzman, E. Ya., Rotwain, I. M., andSadovsky, A. M. (1976),Pattern Recognition Applied to Earthquake Epicenters in California, Phys. Earth. Planet. Int.11, 227–283.
ING,Seismological Reports 1981-1988 (ING, Rome 1982–1989).
Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., andRotwain, I. M. (1980),Bursts of Aftershocks, Long-Term Precursors of Strong Earthquakes, Nature283 (5744), 259–263.
Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., Rotwain I. M. andAllen, C. R. (1988),Intermediate-term Prediction of Occurrence Times of Strong Earthquakes, Nature335 (6192), 690–694.
Keilis-Borok, V. I., andRotwain, I. M. (1989),Diagnostics of TIPs of Strong Earthquakes in Northern Appalachians, Computational Seismology22, 18–23.
PFG,Catalogo dei terremoti italiani dall'anno 1000 al 1980 (ed. Postpischl, D.) (CNR-P. F. Geodinamica, 1985).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Keilis-borok, V.I., Kuznetsov, I.V., Panza, G.F. et al. On intermediate-term earthquake prediction in central Italy. PAGEOPH 134, 79–92 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00878081
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00878081