Abstract
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M s≥6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M s≥6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.
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Papadopoulos, G.A., Voidomatis, P. Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone. PAGEOPH 125, 613–628 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00879575
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00879575