Export citation and abstract BibTeX RIS
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Formatting of section 3.2 should be as follows:
- 1.3shared socioeconomic pathways10 (SSPs; O'Neill et al 2014) for each initial GCAMscenario:
- SSP2: A middle of the road pathway, based on historical patterns.
- SSP3: A rocky road pathway, featuring high population, and low GDP per capita, urbanisation, crop yields, technological progress and pollution controls.
- SSP5: A fossil-fuelled pathway, featuring low population, and high GDP per capita, urbanisation, crop yields, technological progress and pollution controls.
- 2.2initial GCAM scenarios:
- •NO LAND POLICY: baseline without options to increase sustainable forest output.
- •LAND POLICY: scenario that includes educational policies, to be fully effective by 203011 , focusing on teaching forest and agricultural land owners how to increase the sustainable supply of biomass by rotation forestry and agroforestry practices.
- 3.20subsidy scenarios for 6 different technology pathways12 , where technology costs are subsidized in 5% steps until 100%13 . See table A1 in the SM for all assumed technologies, costs and efficiencies of the technologies in these pathways:
- LPG path: LPG stoves and fuel production costs.
- PV path: electric stoves and PV projects (utility-scale, mini-grid and off-grid).
- Biogas path: Biogas digesters and burners.
- Ethanol path: Ethanol stoves and fuel production costs.
- Improved Charcoal path: Improved charcoal stoves and improved charcoal kilns.
- Improved Fuelwood path: Improved fuelwood stoves and suitable woody biomass feedstocks.
Footnotes
- 10
These SSPs were selected to include the widest range of possible scenarios, where SSP3 is seen as a lower extreme and SSP5 as a higher extreme to economic development. SSP projections were used for: population, income, urbanisation, supply and demand for both energy and agricultural commodities and emission factors.
- 11
This means that, by 2030, land owners are indifferent between applying and not applying these methods and are driven by profit maximisation. As such programs are assumed to take time, the program is assumed to be 33% effective by 2020 and 66% effective by 2025.
- 12
We have modelled subsidies for technology pathways instead of individual stoves to avoid stove stacking, which undermines the cost effectiveness of financial support and is more challenging to model.
- 13
For all pathways, the subsidies cover all capital costs. Capital costs for fuels are calculated as the difference between the final consumer price and the price of required production inputs (for LPG, the price of crude oil is taken as the 'input' price). Implicitly, subsidy policies for LPG and Ethanol will be rationed to avoid subsidised fuels to be used for transport.