Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

Nature Geoscience volume 2, pages 492–495 (2009)Cite this article

Abstract

Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1,2,3,4,5,6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6,7,8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable9. However, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records7,8. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1 ∘C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15–25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Calibration and verification of the coral-based SST proxy.
Figure 2: Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic temperature variability since 1550.
Figure 3: Externally and internally forced SST variability
Figure 4: Spectral analysis of internal SST variability.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Schlesinger, M. E. & Ramankutty, N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367, 723–726 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Andronova, N. G. & Schelsinger, M. E. Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2137–2140 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M. & Trimble, P. J. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 2077–2080 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M. & Gray, W. M. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science 293, 474–479 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K. & Scaife, A. A. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L17706 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M. & Mann, M. E. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20708 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Delworth, T. L. & Mann, M. E. Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn. 16, 661–676 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Gray, S. T., Graumlich, L. J., Betancourt, J. L. & Pederson, G. T. A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L12205 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Latif, M., Collins, M., Pohlmann, H. & Keenlyside, N. A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal timescales. J. Clim. 19, 5971–5987 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Vellinga, M. & Wu, P. L. Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Clim. 17, 4498–4511 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Dong, B. W. & Sutton, R. T. Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Clim. 18, 1117–1135 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Hegerl, G.C. et al. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. Clim. 20, 650–666 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. D’Arrigo, R. D., Wilson, R., Liepert, B. & Cherubini, P. On the ‘divergence problem’ in northern forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Glob. Planet. Change 60, 289–205 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Haase-Schramm, A. et al. Sr/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes from sclerosponges: Temperature history of the Caribbean mixed layer and thermocline during the Little Ice Age. Paleoceanography 18, 1073 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Lund, D. C. & Curry, W. Florida Current surface temperature and salinity variability during the last millennium. Paleoceanography 21, 10.1029/2005PA0011218 (2006).

  16. Black, D. E. et al. An 8-century tropical Atlantic SST record from the Cariaco Basin. Paleoceanography 22, PA4204 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Slowey, N. C. & Crowley, T. J. Interdecadal variability of northern hemisphere circulation recorded by Gulf of Mexico corals. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 2345–2348 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Crueger, T., Kuhnert, H., Pätzold, J. & Zorita, E. Calibrations of Bermuda corals against large-scale sea surface temperature and sea level pressure pattern time series and implications for climate reconstructions. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D23103 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Goodkin, N. F., Hughen, K. A., Curry, W. B., Doney, S. C. & Ostermann, D. R. Sea surface temperature and salinity variability at Bermuda during the end of the Little Ice Age. Paleoceanography 23, PA3203 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Bessat, F. & Buigues, D. Two centuries of variation in coral growth in a massive Porites colony from Moorea (French Polynesia): A response of ocean-atmosphere variability from south central Pacific. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 175, 381–392 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lough, J. M. & Barnes, D. J. Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 245, 225–243 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Carricart-Ganivet, J. P. Sea surface temperature and the growth of the West Atlantic reef-building coral Montastrea annularis. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 302, 249–260 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Kaplan, A. et al. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991. Geophys. Res. Lett. 103, 18567–18589 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Esper, J., Cook, E. R. & Schweingruber, F. H. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295, 2250–2253 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. & Jacoby, G. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D03103 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L. & Tomas, R. A. Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with NCAR Climate System Model. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 3713–3718 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Ghil, M. et al. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev. Geophys. 40, 3.1–3.41 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Lund, D. C., Lynch-Stieglitz, J. & Curry, W. B. Gulf Stream density structure and transport during the past millennium. Nature 444, 601–604 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Delworth, T. L., Zhang, R. & Mann, M. E. in Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts (eds Schmittner, A., Chiang, J. C. H. & Hemming, S. R.) 131–148 (American Geophysical Union, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Emery, W. J. & Thompson, R. E. Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography (Elsevier, 1998).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank T. Crowley, P. Huybers, P. Chang, Y. Kwon, J. Woodruff, J. T. Farrar, N. Goodkin and G. Hegerl for discussion. We also thank D. Ketten and J. Arruda for CAT scan support and R. Petitt for initial growth measurements. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation, WHOI’s Ocean and Climate Change Institute, WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute, award No. USA-0002, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and the Inter-American Institute Global Change Research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

    Casey Saenger

  2. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

    Anne L. Cohen & Delia W. Oppo

  3. US Geological Survey (retired) 13765 2600 Rd. Cedaredge, Colorado 81413, USA

    Robert B. Halley

  4. University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093, USA

    Jessica E. Carilli

Authors
  1. Casey Saenger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Anne L. Cohen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Delia W. Oppo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Robert B. Halley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Jessica E. Carilli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

C.S., A.L.C. and D.W.O. designed the experiment. C.S. collected and analysed the data, and wrote the paper. C.S., A.L.C. and D.W.O. interpreted the data, discussed their implications and contributed to the manuscript. R.B.H. and J.E.C. provided sample material and manuscript comments.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Casey Saenger.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Fig. S1

Supplementary Information (PDF 898 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Saenger, C., Cohen, A., Oppo, D. et al. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552. Nature Geosci 2, 492–495 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo552

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo552

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing