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The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

Nature Geoscience volume 3, pages 391–397 (2010)Cite this article

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Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

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Figure 1: Changes in global and tropical Pacific mean climate from complex climate models as a function of the global mean temperature change.
Figure 2: Idealized schematic showing atmospheric and oceanic conditions of the tropical Pacific region and their interactions during normal conditions, El Niño conditions, and in a warmer world.
Figure 3: Projected changes in the amplitude of ENSO variability, as a response to global warming, from the CMIP3 models8,9.

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Acknowledgements

The authors prepared this Review on behalf of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Pacific Panel.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK

    Mat Collins

  2. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

    Mat Collins

  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Global Environmental Lab, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea

    Soon-Il An

  4. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research — Aspendale, 107–121 Station Street, VIC 3195, Aspendale, Australia

    Wenju Cai

  5. Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement BP A5, 98848, Noumea, New Caledonia

    Alexandre Ganachaud

  6. IPSL/LOCEAN, Paris, France and NCAS–Climate, University of Reading, UK

    Eric Guilyardi

  7. Department of Meteorology, SOEST, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, 96822, Hawaii, USA

    Fei-Fei Jin

  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Oceanography Section, Room 415, 1850, Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    Markus Jochum

  9. Physical Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403004, India and IPSL/LOCEAN, Paris, France and NCAS–Climate, University of Reading, UK

    Matthieu Lengaigne

  10. CAWCR, GPO Box 1289, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3001, Victoria, Australia

    Scott Power

  11. Department of Oceanography, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, 96822, Hawaii, USA

    Axel Timmermann

  12. GFDL, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, 08540-6649, New Jersey, USA

    Gabe Vecchi & Andrew Wittenberg

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Collins, M., An, SI., Cai, W. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geosci 3, 391–397 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868

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