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Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

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Abstract

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.

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Abbreviations

BAU:

Business-as-usual management scenario

OPT:

Optimal economic management scenario

SUS:

Environmentally sustainable management scenario

HadCM3:

Hadley centre climate model Version 3

SOC:

Soil organic carbon

UNFCCC:

United Nations framework convention on climate change

RothC:

Rothamsted carbon model

GIS:

Geographical information system

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

SRES:

Special report on emissions scenarios

PET:

Potential evapotranspiration

RAPS:

Regional agricultural production systems

FYM:

Farm yard manure

N:

Nitrogen

C:

Carbon

IOM:

Inert organic matter

BCP:

Bioclimatic potential

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by INTAS project MASC-FSU (INTAS-2001-0116/F5).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK

    P. Smith, J. U. Smith, M. Wattenbach & P. Gottschalk

  2. Department of Soil Physics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120, Halle, Germany

    U. Franko & K. Kuka

  3. Pryanishnikov All-Russian Institute of Agrochemistry (VNIIA), Pryanishnikova st., 31a, 127550, Moscow, Russia

    V. A. Romanenkov & L. K. Shevtsova

  4. All-Russian Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, Lenina st., 82, Obninsk, Kaluga Region, 249020, Russia

    O. D. Sirotenko

  5. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute, Pyzhevsky Per., 7, 109017, Moscow, Russia

    D. I. Rukhovich & P. V. Koroleva

  6. All-Russian Institute of Agricultural Problems and Informatics, Kharitonievsky per., 21/6 Bld.1, 103064, Moscow, Russia

    I. A. Romanenko

  7. Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research named after O.N. Sokolovsky, Chaikovskogo st., 4, 61024, Kharkiv-24, Ukraine

    N. V. Lisovoi

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  1. P. Smith
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  2. J. U. Smith
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  3. U. Franko
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  4. K. Kuka
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  5. V. A. Romanenkov
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  6. L. K. Shevtsova
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  7. M. Wattenbach
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  8. P. Gottschalk
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  9. O. D. Sirotenko
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  10. D. I. Rukhovich
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  11. P. V. Koroleva
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  12. I. A. Romanenko
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  13. N. V. Lisovoi
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Correspondence to P. Smith.

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Smith, P., Smith, J.U., Franko, U. et al. Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation. Reg Environ Change 7, 105–119 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-007-0028-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-007-0028-2

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