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Probabilistic correction of RCM precipitation in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

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Abstract

A parametric quantile–quantile transformation is used to correct the systematic errors of precipitation projected by regional climate models. For this purpose, we used two new probability distributions: modified versions of the Gumbel and log-logistic distributions, which fit to the precipitation of both wet and dry days. With these tools, the daily probability distribution of seven regional climate models was corrected: Aladin-ARPEGE, CLM-HadCM3Q0, HIRHAM-HadCM3Q0, HIRHAM-BCM, RECMO-ECHAM5-rt3, REMO-ECHAM-rt3 and PROMES-HadCM3Q0. The implemented method presents an error less than 5 % in the simulation of the average precipitation and 1 % in the simulation of the number of dry days. For the study area, an intensification of daily and subdaily precipitation is expected under the A1B scenario throughout the 21st century. This intensification is interpreted as a consequence of the process of ‘mediterraneanisation’ of the most southern ocean climate.

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Acknowledgments

This work is the last part of the doctoral thesis written at the Department of Earth Physics of the University of Valencia. This work is supported by the Department of Environment, Regional Planning, Agriculture and Fisheries of the Basque Government (K-Egokitzen II project, Etortek Funding Program). Likewise, we acknowledge the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and Hydrographics Confederations of Ebro (CHE) and Júcar (CHJ) for providing the data for this study. In particular, we thank José Ángel Nuñez, head of the Department of Climatology AEMET delegation in Valencia, and Margarita Martín, AEMET delegate in the Basque Country, for their helpful comments. Finally, it is fair to acknowledge the support of Maddalen Mendizabal (Tecnalia) especially for raising the issue of probability of daily precipitation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Research Foundation, C/ Tremps 11, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Robert Monjo

  2. Marine Research Division, AZTI-Tecnalia, Txatxarramendi ugartea z/g, 48395, Sukarrieta, Vizcaya, Spain

    Guillem Chust

  3. Department of Earth Physics and Thermodynamics, Faculty of Physics, University of Valencia, N. 50, Dr. Moliner, 46100, Burjassot, Valencia, Spain

    Vicente Caselles

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  1. Robert Monjo
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Correspondence to Robert Monjo.

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Monjo, R., Chust, G. & Caselles, V. Probabilistic correction of RCM precipitation in the Basque Country (Northern Spain). Theor Appl Climatol 117, 317–329 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1008-8

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