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Sea ice winter severity in the german baltic in a greenhouse gas experiment

Die Strenge der Eiswinter an der deutschen Ostseeküste in einem Treibhausgasexperiment

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Summary

The sea ice conditions in the German Baltic, depicted by the time series of the accumulated areal ice volume (VAS) in the German Baltic (1879 1-1998), show a remarkable interannual variability. This behaviour results from the irregular occurrence of cold and mild winters in Central Europe. By calculating the correlation fields between the VAS and gridded data sets of air temperature as well as sea level pressure close relations were detected.

A quadratic regression equation including the mean temperature of January/February of the area 50-60° N and 5-15° E as predictor can explain 82 % of the variance of VAS. A sensitivity analysis of the regression equation shows that even small changes in the winter temperature are related to large changes in the accumulated areal ice volume.

An application of the regression equation to the simulated air temperatures of the greenhouse gas scenario IS92a of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM4-OPYC3 shows a drastic decrease in accumulated areal ice volume in the model future.

Zusammenfassung

Die Meereisverhältnisse an der deutschen Ostseeküste, dargestellt an Hand der Reihe der flächenbezogenen Eisvolumensumme (VAS) an der deutschen Ostseeküste (1879 1-1998), zeigen eine beträchtliche interannuelle Variabilität. Dieses Verhalten folgt aus dem unregelmäβigen Auftreten kalter und milder Winter in Mitteleuropa. Durch die Berechnung der Korrelationsfelder zwischen der VAS und Gitterpunktsdaten der Lufttemperatur und des Luftdrucks im Meeresniveau konnten enge Zusammenhänge nachgewiesen wer den.

Die quadratische Regressionsgleichung mit der mittleren Lufttemperatur Januar/Februar des Gebietes 50-60dg N und 5-15° E als Prediktor kann 82 % der Varianz der VAS erklären. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse der Regressionsgleichung zeigt, daβ bereits geringe Änderungen der winterlichen Temperaturverhältnisse drastische Änderungen der Vereisung zur Folge haben. Die Anwendung der Regressionsgleichung auf die vom globalen gekoppelten Klimamodell ECHAM4-OPYC3 gemäβ dem Treibhausgasszenarios IS92a berechneten Temperaturreihen ergibt einen starken Rückgang des winterlichen Eisvorkommens in der Modellzukunft.

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  1. Birger Tinz

    Present address: Weather Reserach GmbH, METEO Service, Teltower Damm 25, D-14169, Berlin

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  1. Institut für Physik Arbeitsgruppe Klimaforschung, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Invalidenstraβe 110, D-10115, Berlin

    Birger Tinz

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Tinz, B. Sea ice winter severity in the german baltic in a greenhouse gas experiment. Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift 50, 33–45 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02764475

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