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Climate anomalies and epidemics in South America at the end of the Colonial Period

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Abstract

Climate is one of the most of influential natural factors on society and economy. One of the consequences of climate anomalies is the emergence of diseases and epidemics, especially in agrarian societies. The current concern with long-term climate change and its measurable consequences on health and disease gives new relevance to the question of how agrarian societies fared during sharp droughts and other climatic hardships, especially those subject to the disruptive processes of colonization. Not many studies have been done in Latin America that relate climate, epidemics and mortality from a historical perspective. This paper explores the association between climatic anomalies, epidemic events, and native demographic decline in the Alto Peru region in the highlands of Bolivia, in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century. Studies of historic climatology indicate that adverse climate events became more frequent in the southern areas of South America during these centuries. There were extreme oscillations in precipitation, especially beginning in the 1750’s which significantly impacted the largest group of people in late colonial Alto Peru: the indigenous population, whose vulnerability increased in face of local climatic anomalies and the resulting epidemiological risk. Both the quantitative and the qualitative analysis show associations between climatic and epidemic events.

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Notes

  1. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 73, December 1785

  2. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 109, December, 1789

  3. AGI. Indiferente General, file. 661. Reales Cédulas, Decretos y Circulares. 1784, fol 1r. Doc. S/N. Circular a los virreyes, gobernadores e intendentes de América. Aranjuez, 10 de mayo de 1784. (2 folios).

  4. Acevedo estimates that the native population reached 60 % to 70 % of the total, whereas the Spanish population–the majority living in cities–barely reached 20 %, of a total of nearly 800,000 inhabitants. Acevedo, “Las Intendencias Altoperuanas”, 409–417. It is not known to which group belongs the 10 % of the remaining population, possibly they would be black people and of mixed race.

  5. “…en la actualidad [Potosí] está con alguna escasez y carestía por falta de lluvia, cuia circunstancia tocará en grado de calamidad si continua la seca”. AGI, Buenos Aires,file 587, February 1798.

  6. AGI, Audiencia de Buenos Aires, files: 21, 73, 99, 107, 109, 383, 586, 587, 590; Indiferente General files 1559, 1528.

  7. AGI, Indiferente General 1559, enero 1787.

  8. “En este partido han sido las aguas proporcionadas por cuya razón fueron las cosechas regulares” AGI. Indiferente General, file 1559, July, 1787

  9. AGI MP-Buenos Aires, 154. Peru Intendencias Virreinato Río de la Plata (31-12-1783).

  10. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 75, July 1787.

  11. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 99, January 1788

  12. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 107, July 1788.

  13. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 107, July 178.

  14. un hambre horrible en toda la cordillera, particularmente en los años de 1789 y 1790 por la suma escasez de aguas[El ganado]se moría en el campo por falta de pastos”.

  15. AGI Buenos Aires file 590, January, 1796

  16. AGI, Buenos Aires file 21, Indiferente General file 1559, July 1797

  17. AGI, Buenos Aires file 589–587, July, 1801

  18. AGI, Buenos Aires, file 383, July 1801

  19. AGN, IX-18-7-2, November, 1804.

  20. AGN, Colonial, IX-18-7, La Paz, June 11, 1804.

  21. Stata 9.2 was used to estimate the logit models using the “xtlogit” routine; adjust was used to estimate the effects as probabilities.

Abbreviations

AGI:

Archivo General de Indias, Sevilla

AGN:

Archivo General de la Nación Argentina

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Acknowledgment

To Erik Marsh for reviewing the manuscript and Amilcar Challu to help in the statistical analysis.

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Correspondence to María del Rosario Prieto.

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Prieto, M.d.R., Rojas, F. Climate anomalies and epidemics in South America at the end of the Colonial Period. Climatic Change 118, 641–658 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0696-5

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