Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modern drought conditions in western Sahel unprecedented in the past 1600 years

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

As climate model uncertainties remain very large for future rainfall in the Sahel, a multi-centennial perspective is required to assess the situation of current Sahel climate in the context of global warming. We present here the first record of hydroclimatic variability over the past 1600 years in Senegal, obtained from stable oxygen isotope analyses (δ18O) in archaeological shell middens from the Saloum Delta. During the preindustrial period, the region was relatively humid, with maximum humidity reached during the period from AD 1500 to AD 1800, referred to as the Little Ice Age. A significant negative link is observed at the centennial scale between global temperature and humidity in the Sahel that is at odds with the expected effects of latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone during the last millennium. In the context of the past 1600 years, the Western Sahel appears to be experiencing today unprecedented drought conditions. The rapid aridification that started ca. AD 1800 and the recent emergence of Sahel drought from the natural variability point to an anthropogenic forcing of Sahel drying trend. This new long-term perspective suggests that the recovery of Sahel rainfall in the last decade may only result from short-term internal variability, and supports climate models that predict an increase of Sahel drought under future greenhouse climate.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allan RP, Soden BJCL (2007) Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031460

    Google Scholar 

  • Azzoug M (2012) Reconstitution des variations multidecennales et saisonnières de la mousson ouest-Africaine au cours des deux derniers millénaires à partir de l’étude sclérochronologique des amas coquilliers fossiles dans le delta du Saloum, Sénégal. Unpublished PhD, Université Montpellier 2

  • Azzoug M, Carré M, Schauer AJ (2012a) Reconstructing the duration of the West African Monsoon season from growth patterns and isotopic signals of shells of Anadara senilis (Saloum Delta, Senegal). Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 346–347:145–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azzoug M, Carré M, Chase BM, Deme A, Lazar A, Lazareth CE, Schauer AJ, Mandeng-Yogo M, Simier M, Thierno-Gaye A, de Morais LT (2012b) Positive precipitation–evaporation budget from AD 460 to 1090 in the Saloum Delta (Senegal) indicated by mollusk oxygen isotopes. Glob Planet Change 98–99:54–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barusseau JP, Bâ M, Descamps C, Salif Diop EH, Giresse P, Saos JL (1995) Coastal evolution in Senegal and Mauritania at 103, 102 and 101-year scales: natural and human records. Quat Int 29/30:61–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biasutti M (2013) Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1613–1623. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bird BW, Abbott MB, Vuille M, Rodbell DT, Stansell ND, Rosenmeier MF (2011) A 2,300-year-long annually resolved record of the South American summer monsoon from the Peruvian Andes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:8583–8588

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blaauw M, Christen JA (2011) Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process. Bayesian Anal 6:457–474

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown ET, Johnson TC (2005) Coherence between tropical East African and South American records of the Little Ice Age. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 6:Q12005. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GC000959

    Google Scholar 

  • Byrne MP, Schneider T (2016) Narrowing of the ITCZ in a warming climate: physical mechanisms. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070396

    Google Scholar 

  • Carré M, Sachs JP, Wallace JM, Favier C (2012) Exploring errors in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions using Monte Carlo simulations: paleotemperature from mollusk and coral geochemistry. Clim Past 8:433–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH, Kanikicharla KK, Marshall G, Turner J (2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In: Climate change 2013, the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1217–1308

    Google Scholar 

  • Cockerton HE, Holmes JA, Street-Perrott FA, Ficken KJ (2014) Holocene dust records from the West African Sahel and their implications for changes in climate and land surface conditions. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:8684–8694. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohn M, Urey HC (1938) Oxygen exchange reactions of organic compounds with water. J Am Chem Soc 60:679–687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daveau S (1969) La découverte du climat au cours des navigations portugaises. Bull Inst Fr Afr Noire Série B 31:953–988

    Google Scholar 

  • Debenay JP, Leung Tack D, Ba M, Sy I (1994) Environmental conditions, growth and production of Anadara senilis (Linnaeus, 1758) in a Senegal lagoon. J Molluscan Stud 60:113–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diara M, Barusseau JP (2006) Late Holocene evolution of the Salum-Gambia double delta (Senegal). Geo Eco Marina 12:17–28

    Google Scholar 

  • El-Bekri (1859) Description de l’Afrique Septentrionale (trans: De Slane MG). Imprimerie Impériale, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Elouard P, Rosso J-C (1977) Biogéographie et habitat des mollusques actuels laguno-marins du delta du Saloum (Sénégal). Geobios 10:275–296 (IN271–IN273)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faure H, Fontes JC, Hebrard L, Monteillet J, Pirazzoli PA (1980) Geoidal change and shore-level tilt along holocene estuaries: Senegal River Area, West Africa. Science 210:421–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85. Nature 320:602–607. https://doi.org/10.1038/320602a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallego D, Ordóñez P, Ribera P, Peña-Ortiz C, García-Herrera R (2015) An instrumental index of the West African Monsoon back to the nineteenth century. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:3166–3176. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2601

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302:1027–1030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillikin DP, Lorrain A, Bouillon S, Willenz P, Dehairs F (2006) Stable carbon isotopic composition of Mytilus edulis shells: relation to metabolism, salinity, d13CDIC and phytoplankton. Org Geochem 37:1371–1382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin DH, Schöne BR, Dettman DL (2003) Resolution and fidelity of oxygen isotopes as paleotemperature proxies in bivalve mollusk shells: models and observations. Palaios 18:110–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grossman EL, Ku T-L (1986) Oxygen and carbon fractionation in biogenic aragonite: temperature effect. Chem Geol 59:59–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hardy K, Camara A, Piqué R, Dioh E, Guèye M, Diadhiou HD, Faye M, Carré M (2016) Shellfishing and shell midden construction in the Saloum Delta, Senegal. J Anthropol Archaeol 41:19–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haug GH, Hughen KA, Sigman DM, Peterson LC, Röhl U (2001) Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene. Science 293:1304–1308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Delworth TL, Lu J, Findell KL, Knutson TR (2005) Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:17891–17896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim S-T, Mucci A, Taylor BE (2007) Phosphoric acid fractionation factors for calcite and aragonite between 25 and 75 °C: revisited. Chem Geol 246:135–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuhnert H, Mulitza S (2011) Multidecadal variability and late medieval cooling of near-coastal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. Paleoceanography 26:PA4224. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011PA002130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau WKM, Kim K-M (2015) Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:3630–3635. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1418682112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavaud R, Thébault J, Lorrain A, van der Geest M, Chauvaud L (2013) Senilia senilis (Linnaeus, 1758), a biogenic archive of environmental conditions on the Banc d’Arguin (Mauritania). J Sea Res 76:61–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maley J (1981) Etudes palynologiques dans le bassin du Tchad et paléoclimatologie de l’Afrique nord-tropicale de 30 000 ans à l’époque actuelle, vol 129. Travaux et documents de l’ORSTOM, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell DT, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 236:1256–1260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin ER, Thorncroft CD (2014) The impact of the AMO on the West African Monsoon annual cycle. Q J R Meteorol Soc 140:31–46. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mikhailov VN, Isupova MV (2008) Hypersalinization of river estuaries in West Africa. Water Resour 35:367–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlén W (2005) Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohino E, Janicot S, Bader J (2011) Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability. Clim Dyn 37:419–440. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0867-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monod T, Teixeira da Mota A, Mauny R (1951) Description de la côte occidentale d'Afrique: (Sénégal du Cap de Monte, Archipels) par Valentim Fernandes (1506–1510). Centro de Estudos da Guiné Portuguesa, Bissau

    Google Scholar 

  • Mulitza S, Rühlemann C (2000) African monsoonal precipitation modulated by interhemispheric temperature gradients. Quat Res 53:270–274. https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1999.2110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulitza S, Heslop D, Pittauerova D, Fischer HW, Meyer I, Stuut J-B, Zabel M, Mollenhauer G, Collins JA, Kuhnert H, Schulz M (2010) Increase in African dust flux at the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Nature 466:226–228. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nash DJ, De Cort G, Chase BM, Verschuren D, Nicholson SE, Shanahan TM, Asrat A, Lézine A-M, Grab SW (2016) African hydroclimatic variability during the last 2000 years. Quat Sci Rev 154:1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ndeye M (2008) Marine reservoir ages in northern Senegal and Mauritania coastal waters. Radiocarbon 50:281–288. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200033580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neelin JD, Chou C, Su H (2003) Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 30:2275. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE (2014) Spatial teleconnections in African rainfall: a comparison of 19th and 20th century patterns. Holocene 24:1840–1848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE, Dezfuli AK, Klotter D (2012) A two-century precipitation dataset for the continent of Africa. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93:1219–1231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE, Nash DJ, Chase BM, Grab SW, Shanahan TM, Verschuren D, Asrat A, Lézine A-M, Umer M (2013) Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years. Holocene 23:1085–1094

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pagès J, Citeau J (1990) Rainfall and salinity of a Sahelian estuary between 1927 and 1987. J Hydrol 113:325–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PAGES-2k (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6:339–346. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pendergrass A, National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (2016) The climate data guide: GPCP (daily): global precipitation climatology project. https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/gpcp-daily-global-precipitation-climatology-project

  • Reimer PJ, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Bronk Ramsey C, Buck CE, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Friedrich M, Grootes PM, Guilderson TP, Haflidason H, Hajdas I, Hatté C, Heaton TJ, Hoffmann DL, Hogg AG, Hughen KA, Kaiser KF, Kromer B, Manning SW, Niu M, Reimer RW, Richards DA, Scott EM, Southon JR, Staff RA, Turney CSM, van der Plicht J (2013) IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 55:1869–1887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robert DS (1970) Les Fouilles de Tegdaoust. J Afr Hist 11:471–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sachs JP, Sachse D, Smittenberg RH, Zhang Z, Battisti DS, Golubic S (2009) Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400–1850. Nat Geosci 2:519–525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savenije HHG, Pagès J (1992) Hypersalinity: a dramatic change in the hydrology of Sahelian estuaries. J Hydrol 135:157–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shanahan TM, Overpeck JT, Anchukaitis KJ, Beck JW, Cole JE, Dettman DL, Peck JA, Scholz CA, King JW (2009) Atlantic forcing of persistent drought in West Africa. Science 324:377–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Street-Perrott FA, Perrott RA (1990) Abrupt climate fluctuations in the tropics: the influence of Atlantic Ocean circulation. Nature 343:607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Street-Perrott FA, Holmes JA, Waller MP, Allen MJ, Barber NGH, Fothergill PA, Harkness DD, Ivanovich M, Kroon D, Perrott RA (2000) Drought and dust deposition in the West African Sahel: a 5500-year record from Kajemarum Oasis, northeastern Nigeria. Holocene 10:293–302. https://doi.org/10.1191/095968300678141274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Su H, Jiang JH, Neelin JD, Shen TJ, Zhai C, Yue Q, Wang Z, Huang L, Choi Y-S, Stephens GL, Yung YL (2017) Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate. Nat Commun 8:15771. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thilmans G, Descamps C (1982) Amas et tumulus coquilliers du delta du Saloum. In: Recherches scientifiques dans les parcs nationaux du Sénégal, vol 92. Mémoires de l’Institut Fondamental d’Afrique Noire, Dakar, pp 31–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Tierney JE, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ, Seager R (2013) Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature 493:389–392. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11785

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tierney JE, Ummenhofer CC, deMenocal PB (2015) Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. Sci Adv. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682

    Google Scholar 

  • Wade M, Mignot J, Lazar A, Gaye AT, Carré M (2015) On the spatial coherence of rainfall over the Saloum delta (Senegal) from seasonal to decadal time scales. Front Earth Sci Atmos Sci 3:30. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00030

    Google Scholar 

  • Wodzicki KR, Rapp ADCJ (2016) Long-term characterization of the Pacific ITCZ using TRMM, GPCP, and ERA-Interim. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:3153–3170. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan H, Wei W, Soon W, An Z, Zhou W, Liu Z, Wang Y, Carter RM (2015) Dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone over the western Pacific during the Little Ice Age. Nat Geosci 8:315–320. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yancheva G, Nowaczyk NR, Mingram J, Dulski P, Schettler G, Negendank JFW, Liu J, Sigman DM, Peterson LC, Haug GH (2007) Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon. Nature 445:74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Delworth TLCL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026267

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to César Tendeng, Ansu Mane, Iba Ndiaye, and Bernard Bassène for their assistance with fieldwork. We are thankful to Cyr Descamps for sharing his knowledge on archaeological shell middens. We thank the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) in Senegal for the logistical support during field trips. We thank Andrew Schauer and Marie Balasse for their support with isotopic analyses, Sharon Nicholson for her valuable comments on the manuscript, and two anonymous reviewers. This research was funded by the University of Montpellier, the French CNRS-Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers through the LEFE program, and the ANR-Belmont Forum PACMEDY project (ANR-15-JCLI-0003-01).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France

    Matthieu Carré, Serge Janicot, Myriam Khodri, Alban Lazar, Claire E. Lazareth & Juliette Mignot

  2. CIDIS-LID-Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía-Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru

    Matthieu Carré

  3. Département de Génie des Procédés, Faculté de Technologie, Université de Bejaia, 06000, Bejaïa, Algeria

    Moufok Azzoug

  4. ISYEB-UMR 7205-CNRS, MNHN, UPMC (Université Paris 6), EPHE-Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France

    Paul Zaharias

  5. Institut Fondamental d’Afrique Noire, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal

    Abdoulaye Camara

  6. CNRS-UM-IRD-EPHE, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Montpellier, France

    Rachid Cheddadi, Nancy Mitma García & Océane Perrot

  7. Institut des Dynamiques de la Surface Terrestre, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Manuel Chevalier

  8. CNRS-MNHN, Archéozoologie, Archéobotanique: Sociétés, Pratiques et Environnements, Paris, France

    Denis Fiorillo

  9. Institut Polytechnique, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal

    Amadou T. Gaye

  10. IRD-CNRS-UM, Hydrosciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France

    Nicolas Patris

  11. Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphere et de l’Ocean Simeon Fongang, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal

    Malick Wade

Authors
  1. Matthieu Carré
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Moufok Azzoug
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Paul Zaharias
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Abdoulaye Camara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Rachid Cheddadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Manuel Chevalier
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Denis Fiorillo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Amadou T. Gaye
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Serge Janicot
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Myriam Khodri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Alban Lazar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Claire E. Lazareth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Juliette Mignot
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. Nancy Mitma García
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. Nicolas Patris
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  16. Océane Perrot
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  17. Malick Wade
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Matthieu Carré.

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Carré, M., Azzoug, M., Zaharias, P. et al. Modern drought conditions in western Sahel unprecedented in the past 1600 years. Clim Dyn 52, 1949–1964 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4311-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4311-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation