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Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

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Abstract

We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60–120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or ‘geophysical fingerprints’. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium. Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf.

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Acknowledgements

All observational data used in this paper may be obtained from the sources mentioned above, while model data may be obtained from P.L. Woodworth (plw@noc.ac.uk) or M.Á. Morales Maqueda (miguel.morales-maqueda@newcastle.ac.uk). Andrew Kemp (Tufts University) is thanked for comments on a draft of this paper, especially for advice on the regional salt marsh records, and for the data in Fig. 7. We thank our colleagues Antony Long, Tasha Barlow and Margot Saher in the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) project “North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last half-millennium” (NE/G004757/1) for many discussions on North Atlantic sea level change. In addition, we are grateful to three reviewers for their useful comments. The NERC project “Climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean: wind-induced changes in heat content, sea level and overturning” (NE/H02087X/1) also provided input to this study. Part of this work was funded by UK Natural Environment Research Council National Capability funding. Some of the figures in this paper were generated using the Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith 1998).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK

    P. L. Woodworth & C. W. Hughes

  2. School of Marine Science and Technology, Newcastle University, Armstrong Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

    M. Á. Morales Maqueda

  3. Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5NG, UK

    W. R. Gehrels

  4. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, UK

    V. M. Roussenov, R. G. Williams & C. W. Hughes

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  1. P. L. Woodworth
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Correspondence to P. L. Woodworth.

Appendix 1: Ocean circulation model

Appendix 1: Ocean circulation model

Our ocean circulation model takes the form of a ‘semi diagnostic’ dynamical analysis of historical temperature and salinity data spanning 1950–2009. It was used previously in studies of overturning variability (Lozier et al. 2010), thermocline depth and ocean heat content variability and gyre-scale steric changes in sea level (Williams et al. 2014, 2015) and MSL variability along the Atlantic coast of North America (Woodworth et al. 2014).

The historical temperature and salinity changes are derived from a global analysis of the available hydrographic data, including recent Argo data, by the UK Met Office [Met Office Statistical Ocean Reanalysis; see Smith and Murphy (2007), and Smith et al. (2015)]. The historical temperature and salinity data are assimilated into the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (Marshall et al. 1997) in a semi-diagnostic manner; see Williams et al. (2014, 2015) for further model details. The model assimilation includes an initial 1 month spin up and then a further 12 months integration to cover an annual cycle. The model includes forcing by monthly mean wind stresses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalyses (Kistler et al. 2001, www.cdc.noaa.gov). The dynamical adjustment does not include explicit surface heat or freshwater fluxes, but includes a weak artificial relaxation of temperature and salinity to the initial temperature and salinity data on a timescale of 36 months. This initialisation and assimilation procedure is repeated for each separate year.

The model assimilation is applied on a 1/5° × 1/6° (longitude × latitude) grid with 23 levels in the vertical for the period 1950–2009. (A coarse resolution 1° version of the grid is used for model testing.) The subsequent changes in sea level are then evaluated from these dynamically-adjusted model fields for each year. The model analyses are ideal for the present study as there is only a limited dynamical adjustment, responding to the hydrographic initialisation and wind forcing; the semi-diagnostic model does not determine its own hydrography as a consequence of surface heat and freshwater fluxes as most other models do, so that there is limited model drift from the repeated initialisations from the historical data.

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Woodworth, P.L., Morales Maqueda, M.Á., Gehrels, W.R. et al. Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 49, 2451–2469 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3464-1

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