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Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

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Abstract

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) for establishing the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP, see Kirtman and Pirani 2009) and the Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) for providing the model output http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/DS. We also thank the data providers for making the model output available through CHFP. This research was supported by UBACyT 20020100100434, CONICET/PIP 112-20120100626CO, PIDDEF 2014/2017 No 15, ANR-15-JCL/-0002-01 “CLIMAX”. M.O. is supported by a Ph.D grant from CONICET, Argentina.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II-2do. Piso, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marisol Osman

  2. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marisol Osman & C. S. Vera

  3. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marisol Osman & C. S. Vera

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  1. Marisol Osman
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Correspondence to Marisol Osman.

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Osman, M., Vera, C.S. Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models. Clim Dyn 49, 2365–2383 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3444-5

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