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AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon

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Abstract

The intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by a number of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are analyzed and assessed against observations. The model data comes from the Monsoon GCM Intercomparison project initiated by the CLIVAR/Asian–Australian Monsoon Panel. Ten GCM groups, i.e., the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Institute of Numerical Mathematics (DNM), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Seoul National University (SNU), and the State University of New York (SUNY), participated in the intraseasonal component of the project. Each performed a set of 10 ensemble simulations for 1 September 1996–31 August 1998 using the same observed weekly SST values but with different initial conditions. The focus is on the spatial and seasonal variations associated with intraseasonal variability (ISV) of rainfall, the structure of each model's principal mode of spatial-temporal variation of rainfall [i.e. their depiction of the Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the teleconnection patterns associated with each model's ISO, and the implications of the models' ISV on seasonal monsoon predictability. The results show that several of the models exhibit ISV levels at or above that found in observations with spatial patterns of ISV that resemble the observed pattern. This includes a number of rather detailed features, including the relative distribution of variability between ocean and land regions. In terms of the area-averaged variance, it is found that the fidelity of a model to represent NH summer versus winter ISV appears to be strongly linked. In addition, most models' ISO patterns do exhibit some form of northeastward propagation. However, the model ISO patterns are typically less coherent, lack sufficient eastward propagation, and have smaller zonal and meridional spatial scales than the observed patterns, and are often limited to one side or the other of the maritime continent. The most pervasive and problematic feature of the models' depiction of ISV and/or their ISO patterns is the overall lack of variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean. In some cases, this characteristic appears to result from some models forming double convergence zones about the equator rather than one region of strong convergence on the equator. This shortcoming results in a poor representation of the local rainfall pattern and also significantly influences the models' representations of the global-scale teleconnection patterns associated with the ISO. Finally, analysis of the model ensemble shows a positive relationship between the strength of a model's ISV of rainfall and its intra-ensemble variability of seasonal monsoon rainfall. The implications of this latter relation are discussed in the context of seasonal monsoon predictability.

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Acknowledgements.

This work is a contribution to the Asian–Australian Monsoon GCM Intercomparison Project initiated by the CLIVAR International Monsoon Panel. This project was supported by the Climate Environment System Research Center (CES) which is sponsored by the Korean Science and Engineering Foundation and the Korea Meteorological Administration. Support for the first author was provided by the Atmospheric Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation (NSF; ATM-9712483 and ATM-0094416) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; NA16GP2021). Support for V. Krishnamurthy was provided by NSF (ATM-9814295), NOAA (NA96-GP0056), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5-8202).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Marine Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000, USA

    D. E. Waliser

  2. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

    K. Jin, I.-S. Kang & M.-I. Lee

  3. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    W. F. Stern

  4. Data Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    S. D. Schubert & M. L. C. Wu

  5. Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    K.-M. Lau

  6. Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, USA

    V. Krishnamurthy

  7. Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

    A. Kitoh

  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    G. A. Meehl

  9. Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    V. Y. Galin

  10. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    V. Satyan & S. K. Mandke

  11. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, People's Republic of China

    G. Wu & Y. Liu

  12. Climate Prediction Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea

    C.-K. Park

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  1. D. E. Waliser
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  2. K. Jin
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  3. I.-S. Kang
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  4. W. F. Stern
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  5. S. D. Schubert
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  6. M. L. C. Wu
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  7. K.-M. Lau
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  8. M.-I. Lee
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  9. V. Krishnamurthy
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  10. A. Kitoh
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  11. G. A. Meehl
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  12. V. Y. Galin
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  13. V. Satyan
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  14. S. K. Mandke
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  15. G. Wu
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  16. Y. Liu
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  17. C.-K. Park
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Correspondence to D. E. Waliser.

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Waliser, D.E., Jin, K., Kang, IS. et al. AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics 21, 423–446 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0337-1

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