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Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy

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Abstract

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.

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Acknowledgments

The authors warmly thank M. Quaglino for helping in a first elaboration of the maps, S. Buononato for elaboration of a digital version of the structural map, and E. Bellucci Sessa of the Laboratory of Geomatics and Cartography of the INGV-OV for elaboration of the CFc DTM. The research has been carried out in the framework of the DPC-INGV projects on Campi Flegrei.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, via D. Creti 12, 40128, Bologna, Italy

    Jacopo Selva & Laura Sandri

  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124, Naples, Italy

    Giovanni Orsi & Mauro Antonio Di Vito

  3. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma 1, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Rome, Italy

    Warner Marzocchi

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  1. Jacopo Selva
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  2. Giovanni Orsi
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  3. Mauro Antonio Di Vito
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  4. Warner Marzocchi
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  5. Laura Sandri
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Correspondence to Jacopo Selva.

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Table 1

Best guess value (average), and confidence interval (10th, 50th and 90th percentiles), of the conditional probability of vent opening at Campi Flegrei at each SA, for the prior model (columns 2 to 5), the posterior model (columns 6 to 9) and the filtered posterior model (columns 10 to 13). (XLS 169 kb)

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Selva, J., Orsi, G., Di Vito, M.A. et al. Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Bull Volcanol 74, 497–510 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2

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