The parameter estimation of conditional intensity function temporal point process as renewal process using Bayesian method and its application on the data of earthquake in East Nusa Tenggara

A temporal point process is a one-dimensional point process where events are observed by time. A temporal point process can be viewed as a renewal process with time between events as random variables. The conditional intensity function of the process represents the expected rate dependent on time between events so that we can predict earthquakes activities. This research will be discussed about parameters estimation of conditional intensity function using Bayesian method and be applied to earthquake data in East Nusa Tenggara (ENT) from January 2015 to April 2018. The ENT is categorized as earthquake prone, because it is flanked by two zones of earthquakes. In southern region there are the Eurasian and Indo-Australian plates sub ducted, and in the north there is a back arc thrust. Based on the research results, it was obtained the conditional intensity estimation. The application of conditional intensity estimation represents the expected rate of earthquake occurrence in East Nusa Tenggara at a certain time interval. The time intervals are in units of days. The greatest conditional intensity is at the time interval (day 1096^th to 11897^th) that is 0.058798617. It means that the probability earthquake occurrence in East Nusa Tenggara at that time period is very low with the total number of occurrences are 28 earthquakes.