The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.002

Global Environmental Change

Volume 14, Issue 2, July 2004, Pages 137-146

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.002 Get rights and content

Abstract

Unsustainable tendencies in the co-evolution of human and natural systems have stimulated a search for new approaches to understanding complex problems of environment and development. Recently, attention has been drawn to the emergence of a new “sustainability science”, and core questions and research strategies have been proposed. A key challenge of sustainability is to examine the range of plausible future pathways of combined social and environmental systems under conditions of uncertainty, surprise, human choice and complexity. This requires charting new scientific territory and expanding the current global change research agenda. Scenario analysis—including new participatory and problem-oriented approaches—provides a powerful tool for integrating knowledge, scanning the future in an organized way and internalizing human choice into sustainability science.

Section snippets

Core questions

There is wide consensus in both science and policy that world development continues to move in an unsustainable direction. A recent comprehensive review of the state of the environment (UNEP, 2002) finds that, over the last 30 years, human and environmental circumstances have changed considerably and inequitably across the world. Social and environmental conditions have deteriorated in many places, and the integrity of life support systems has come under increasing threat.

Since the seminal

Research strategies

Kates et al. (2001) conclude that the structure, methods, and content of the scientific enterprise would have to change in order to pursue sustainability science adequately. From the core questions they derive four research strategies:

(i)
spanning multiple spatial scales from local to global processes;
(ii)
accounting for temporal inertia and urgency of problems that are both long-lived and perilous;
(iii)
reflecting functional complexity and multiple stresses in human and environmental systems; and
(iv)
recognizing

Scenario analysis: history and current frontiers

Scanning these various research strategies for a new sustainability science, a recurrent theme is the challenge of integration. The systemic character of sustainability problems demands a holistic perspective that unifies across sectors, problems, methods, disciplines, spatial scales and time. Furthermore, the strict distinction between the realm of the normative and the objective, the “ought” and the “is”, is not useful when the system under scrutiny entrains human values and choices as

Integrating scenario analysis into the sustainability science toolkit

With this background, the potential for scenario analysis as a tool for addressing the core questions and methodological challenges of sustainability science comes into focus. Sustainability science must consider the interplay and dynamic evolution of social, economic and natural systems—it requires an integrated and long-term perspective. It must address the sustainability process as tentative, open and iterative, involving scientific, policy and public participation. It must capture the

Conclusions and future directions

In summary, the emergence of a globalized phase of development is bringing both new opportunities and new perils. In many regions technological advances thrive, incomes increase, and health conditions improve. At the same time, poverty and hunger continue to plague hundreds of millions of people, conflicts abound, and ecological resources are under continuous pressure around the globe. With the possibility of the world's population doubling in this century and economic output increasing

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The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

Abstract

Section snippets

Core questions

Research strategies

Scenario analysis: history and current frontiers

Integrating scenario analysis into the sustainability science toolkit

Conclusions and future directions

Global Environmental Change

Energy Policy

Futures

Global Environmental Change

Global Environmental Change

Developing and applying scenarios

The Delft processexperiences with a dialogue between policy makers and global modellers

Science for the 21st century from social contract to the scientific core

International Journal of Social Science

The Year 2000a Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years

Climate science and climate policyimproving the science/policy interface

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Emissions Scenarios for IPCCan update

Soft Energy Paths

Entering the century of the environmenta new social contract for science

Science

Limits to Growth