Nach der Wahl: Was sind die wichtigsten wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen?

Zusammenfassung

Die gute konjunkturelle Lage der deutschen Volkswirtschaft bietet der Bundesregierung hervorragende Möglichkeiten, Deutschland für die Herausforderungen der Zukunft zu wappnen. Was sind die drängendsten Probleme? Der demografische Wandel erfordert Maßnahmen zur Erhöhung des Arbeitskräftepotenzials, die Digitalisierung ist in vielen Bereichen voranzutreiben, auf ihre Folgen muss sich die Politik aber einstellen. Energiewende, Weiterentwicklung der EU, Globalisierung und Verteilungsfragen stehen ebenfalls zur Debatte. Dabei gilt es, die Balance zwischen einem soliden finanzpolitischen Kurs einerseits und wachstumsfreundlichen Reformen andererseits zu wahren.

Abstract

Even though Germany’s economy is currently going strong, the country still faces enormous challenges if it wants to maintain and increase this prosperity. The new government should take this opportunity to set the course for the future by encouraging the digitalisation of the economy and the society as well as by ensuring that the ongoing energy transition is sustainable and efficient. Other challenges include the adverse effects of globalisation on parts of society and the uneven distribution of income and wealth. But the actual magnitude of the government’s room to manoeuver is up for debate. The new government’s fiscal space might be more limited than it seems, since an automatic adjustment of the income tax to inflation and growth is required to end the bracket creep. Given that transfer programmes are being phased out, the federal income tax surcharge to finance German unification also needs to be abolished. Further budget pressure stems from the pension system and from demands by state and local as well as European governments. The new German government should use the next governing period to initiate fundamental reforms of economic and fiscal policy that will provide adequate answers to long-run challenges.