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The method of the medium-range forecast of air temperature in the area of the “Baikonur” cosmodrome

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Abstract

The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteristics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information-World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of operational forecasts.

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References

  1. R. M. Vil’fand, P. P. Vasil’ev, E. L. Vasil’eva, et al., “Medium-range Forecast of Air Temperature and of Some Dangerous Phenomena Using the Technique of the Hydrometcenter of Russia,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 10 (2010) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 10, 35 (2010)].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Operation of Space Ground-Based Infrastructure, ul. Shchepkina 42, Moscow, 107996, Russia

    N. V. Shirshov

  2. Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11-13, Moscow, 123242, Russia

    R. M. Vil’fand, P. P. Vasil’ev & E. L. Vasil’eva

Authors
  1. N. V. Shirshov
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  2. R. M. Vil’fand
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  3. P. P. Vasil’ev
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  4. E. L. Vasil’eva
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to N. V. Shirshov.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © N.V. Shirshov, R.M. Vil’fand, P.P. Vasil’ev, E.L. Vasil’eva, 2014, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2014, No. 6, pp. 80–84.

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Shirshov, N.V., Vil’fand, R.M., Vasil’ev, P.P. et al. The method of the medium-range forecast of air temperature in the area of the “Baikonur” cosmodrome. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 39, 416–419 (2014). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373914060089

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373914060089

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