Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Disaggregation Modelling of Annual Flows into Daily Streamflows Using a New Approach of the Method of Fragments

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

An Erratum to this article was published on 26 August 2016

Abstract

For many decades, synthetic streamflow series have been utilized in hydrology to analyze numerous stochastic problems whose solutions depend on the values of the streamflows and their temporal pattern. The stochastic generation of synthetic streamflows at a given time level can adopt two general approaches: the generation at the required time level by applying an appropriate model; or the generation of annual flows using a suitable annual model, followed by their disaggregation into flows at the required time level. The first approach is feasible for a seasonal or monthly level, but not for a daily level, while the latter can be applied to any level. It also has the advantage of allowing the preservation of the historical statistical properties at both the upper (year) and the lower (season, month or day) time levels. One of the simplest disaggregation models is the method of fragments. Based on the extensive application of that method to the generation of monthly flow series in more than 50 Portuguese river gauges (Silva and Portela, 2011, Hydrol Sci J 57(5): 942–955. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2012.686695, 2012), it was possible to establish a deterministic criterion to define the classes of fragments and to select the fragments that proved to be very robust. That criterion was revisited and modified and applied to the generation of synthetic daily flow series, with even better results. This paper describes the revisited method, presents the results from its application to a few case studies and discusses its relevance to analyze the uncertainty due to the temporal variability of the flow regime.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acharya A, Ryu J (2014) Simple method for streamflow disaggregation. J Hydrol Eng 19(3):509–519. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000818

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed JA, Sarma AK (2007) Artificial neural network model for synthetic streamflow generation. Water Resour Manag 21:1015–1029. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9070-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arsénio JJG (2003) Gestão de Albufeiras: avaliação do potencial dos sistemas com recurso a séries sintéticas de escoamentos. MSc thesis. IST, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese)

  • Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, Ljung GM (2015) Time series analysis: forecasting and control, 5th edn. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken. ISBN 978-1-118-67502-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Chow VT (1951) A general formula for hydrologic frequency analysis. Trans Am Geophys Union 32:231–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guimarães RCPDC (2005) Simulação no Dimensionamento e Gestão de Sistemas de Recursos Hídricos. Geração de Séries Sintéticas de Escoamento. PhD thesis. Évora University, Évora, Portugal (in Portuguese)

  • Guimarães R, Santos EG (2011) Principles of stochastic generation of hydrologic time series for reservoir planning and design: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 16(11):891–898. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirby W (1972) Computer oriented Wilson-Hilferty transformation that preserves the first three moments and the lower bound of the Pearson type 3 distribution. Water Resour Res 8(5):1251–1254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maheepala S, Perera B (1996) Monthly hydrologic data generation by disaggregation. J Hydrol 178(1–4):277–291. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02834-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matalas NC (1967) Mathematical assessment of synthetic hydrology. Water Resour Res 3(4):937–945

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McMahon T, Adeloye A (2005) Water resources yield. Water Resources Publications, Littleton

    Google Scholar 

  • Naghettini M, Pinto E (2007) Hidrologia estatística. Serviço Geológico do Brazil, CPRM, Belo Horizonte (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ndiritu J (2011) A variable-length block bootstrap method for multi-site synthetic streamflow generation. Hydrol Sci J 56(3):362–379. doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.562471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nowak K, Prairie J, Rajagopalan B, Lall U (2010) A nonparametric stochastic approach for multisite disaggregation of annual to daily streamflow. Water Resour Res 46(8). doi:10.1029/2009WR008530

  • Ochoa-Rivera JC, García-Bartual R, Andreu J (2002) Multivariate synthetic streamflow generation using a hybrid model based on artificial neural networks. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 6(4):641–654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinto JDS (2013) Análise de risco em pequenas centrais hidroeléctricas baseada na geração sintética de escoamentos diários por meio de modelos de desagregação. MSc Thesis. UBI, Covilhã, Portugal (in Portuguese)

  • Portela MM, Quintela AC (2002) Evaluation of the water resources in Portuguese watersheds without streamflow data. Conferencia Internacional de organismos de Cuenca (International Conference of Basin Organizations). Madrid, Espanha

  • Portela MM, Quintela AC (2005) Regionalization of hydrologic information: establishment of flow series at ungauged watersheds. Water Resources Management III. WITPress, ISBN:1-84564-007-1, WOS:000230111500002. doi:10.2495/WRM050021

  • Portela MM, Quintela AC (2006) Preliminary design of the storage capacity of reservoirs based on a flow regionalization parameter. BALWOIS 2006, International Conference on “Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support”. Ohrid, Macedonia

  • Quintela A (1967) Recursos de águas superficiais em Portugal Continental. PhD thesis. IST, Lisbon (in Portuguese)

  • Salas JD (1993) Analysis and modeling of hydrologic time series, Chapter 19 (72 p.). In: Maidment DR (Ed) The McGraw Hill Handbook of hydrology

  • Salas JD, Delleur JW, Yevjevich V, Lane WL (1980) Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water Resour Publ. ISBN 0918334373, 9780918334374

  • Santos EG (1983) Disaggregation modeling of hydrologic time series. PhD Thesis. Colorado State University, Colorado, USA

  • Santos EG, Salas JD (1992) Stepwise disaggregation scheme for synthetic hydrology. J Hydraul Eng 118(5):765–784. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1992)118:5(765)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva MM (1989) Desagregação diária por etapas. Aplicação à geração de séries sintéticas de escoamentos diários. MSc Thesis. IST, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese)

  • Silva MM (1992) Daily step-disaggregation model. Application to daily flow synthetic generation. SPRUCE. Statistics in Public Resources and Utilities, and in Care of the Environment. Lisbon, Portugal

  • Silva AT (2010) Design of the storage capacity of artificial reservoirs. MSc Thesis. IST, Lisbon, Portugal

  • Silva AT, Portela MM (2010) Geração de séries sintéticas de escoamentos anuais e mensais: aplicação extensiva a Portugal continental. Recur Hídr 31(2):27–41 (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva AT, Portela MM (2011) Generation of monthly synthetic streamflow series based on the method of fragments. Water Resources Management 2011-6th International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management. Wessex Institute, WITPress, ISBN:978-1-84564-514-4, ISSN:1746-448X. Doi:10.2495/WRM110201

  • Silva AT, Portela MM (2012) Disaggregation modelling of monthly streamflows using a new approach of the method of fragments. Hydrol Sci J 57(5):942–955. doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.686695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Srinkanthan R, McMahon TA (1980a) Stochastic generation of monthly flows for ephemeral streams. J Hydrol 47(1–2):19–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Srinkanthan R, McMahon TA (1980b) Stochastic time series modelling of arid zone streamflows. Hydrol Sci Bull 25(4):423–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Srinkanthan R, McMahon TA (1982) Stochastic generation of monthly streamflows. J Hydraul Div Am Soc Civil Eng 108(3):419–441

    Google Scholar 

  • Srinkanthan R, McMahon TA (2001) Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: a review. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5(4):653–670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stedinger JR, Taylor MR (1982) Synthetic streamflow generation: 1. Model verification and validation. Water Resour Res 18(4):909–918. doi:10.1029/WR018i004p00909

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stedinger JR, Vogel RM (1984) Disaggregation procedures for generating serially correlated flow vectors. Water Resour Res 20(1):47–56. doi:10.1029/WR020i001p00047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stedinger JR, Lettenmaier DP, Vogel RM (1985) Multisite ARMA(1,1) and disaggregation models for annual streamflow generation. Water Resour Res 21(4):497–509. doi:10.1029/WR021i004p00497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svanidze GG (1964) Osnovy rascheta regulirovaniya rechnogo stoka metodom Monte-Karlo. Izd. Akad. Nauk GSSR, Tbilisi (in Russian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Svanidze GG (1980) Mathematical modeling of hydrologic series for hydroelectric and water resources computations. Water Resources Publications, Littleton

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas HA, Fiering MB (1962) Mathematical synthesis of streamflows sequences for the analysis of river basins by simulation. In: Mass A et al (eds) Design of water systems. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, pp 459–493

    Google Scholar 

  • Valencia DR, Schaake JC Jr (1973) Disaggregation processes in stochastic hydrology. Water Resour Res 9(3):580–585

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Maria Manuela Portela & Artur Tiago Silva

Authors
  1. Maria Manuela Portela
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Artur Tiago Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maria Manuela Portela.

Additional information

An erratum to this article is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1464-x.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Portela, M.M., Silva, A.T. Disaggregation Modelling of Annual Flows into Daily Streamflows Using a New Approach of the Method of Fragments. Water Resour Manage 30, 5589–5607 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1402-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1402-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation