Abstract
In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213–1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390–1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Dr Emmanuelle Cam and an anonymous referee for their careful reading, useful suggestions and comments that improved our presentation. We also thank Dr Stewart-Oaten for his suggestions on a previous version of this manuscript. This work was funded by a cooperative agreement between North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at North Carolina State University and USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. The main simulation results were conducted at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Laurel, Maryland while the first author was a research associate in the Statistics Department at North Carolina State University. The first author also acknowledges partial support from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia e do FSE (III Quadro Comunitário de Apoio), and the Fundanção Calouste Gulbenkian while on sabbatical leave from the University of Évora, Portugal.
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Alpizar-Jara, R., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E. et al. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability. Oecologia 141, 652–660 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-004-1641-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-004-1641-0