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Extreme rainfall event in the Northeast coast of Brazil: a numerical sensitivity study

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Abstract

This study investigates an extreme rainfall event which occurred in Northern Brazil (NEB) between 20 and 30th 2017 May causing several deaths and making thousands homeless. Based on a suite of microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes based on the WRF model, it is demonstrated that anomalous weather conditions are characterized by significant upward and eastward wind flow. Omega differences with respect to climatological conditions showed values up to − 0.04 Pa/s and wind up to 6–8 m/s in consonance with higher precipitation in May in the NEB coast. The cumulative rainfall for 11 days was higher than 500 mm in some locations, as measured by weather stations. These conditions were simulated by the WRF model under different physics parameterization schemes. In total 24 experiments with WRF were implemented. Non-local PBL demonstrated better performance than the local PBL. Moreover, the rainfall was concentrated in small portions of the region, and the local scheme limited the WRF conditions to estimate the correct maximum precipitation location. The Morrison scheme performed better compared to the other schemes. Results presented here show that the correct choices of the microphysics and PBL parameterizations are fundamental to obtain good simulation/forecast, especially for extreme rainfall events. This study demonstrates that regional modeling is crucial to provide accurate information to forecasters and decision makers to plan actions which hamper catastrophic situations such as landslides and floods in high-risk regions.

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  1. https://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php?r=stacoes/estacoesAutomaticas.

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Acknowledgements

This study was financed in part by the CAPES-PNPD (1671778). This is also a contribution to ATMOS Project (CNPq 443013/2018-7) and FAPEMIG PPM-00773-18. CNPq also funds L. P. Pezzi and F. Justino through fellowship of the Research Productivity Program (CNPq 304009/2016-4 and 306181/2016-9). A. Fernández is funded by FONDECYT 11160454.

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  1. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Avenida Ph Rolfs, s/n, Viçosa, MG, 36570-000, Brazil

    Alcimoni Nelci Comin, Flavio Justino, Carlos Diego de Sousa Gurjão & Vanúcia Shumacher

  2. General Earth Observation Coordination (OBT), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos-SP, Brazil

    Luciano Pezzi & Ueslei Adriano Sutil

  3. Department of Geography, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile

    Alfonso Fernández

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Comin, A.N., Justino, F., Pezzi, L. et al. Extreme rainfall event in the Northeast coast of Brazil: a numerical sensitivity study. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 141–162 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00747-0

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