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Rainfall variability over Alagoas under the influences of SST anomalies

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Abstract

The rainfall variability for the state of Alagoas, Northeast of Brazil, was evaluated based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Harmonic decomposition was applied to 31 years-long (1960–1990) series of SPI, from 33 stations, to relate their modes of variability to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The most important harmonics identified by the spectral analysis had periods of 10–15 and 2–3 years, followed by other oscillations with smaller periods. The 10–15 years harmonic was associated with the Atlantic interhemispheric SST gradient (AITG), a cross-equatorial dipole which impacts the northeast region of Brazil by influencing the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), leading to dry or wet conditions. The 2–3 years harmonic was consistent with the variability of ENSO events. The harmonic analysis is a powerful tool to identify the principal modes of variability of SPI. Although the magnitude of SPI is underestimated in some cases, this tool significantly increases the knowledge of the main drivers of rainfall and droughts in the region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the helpful comments from two anonymous reviewers. We thank the support from Superintendência para o Desenvolvimento do Nordeste (SUDENE), Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for providing the dataset of rainfall for the state of Alagoas.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Florestas, Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro, 23890-000, Brazil

    G. B. Lyra, J. F. Oliveira-Júnior & G. Gois

  2. Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN), Estrada Dr. Altino Bondensan, 500, Eugênio de Melo, São José Dos Campos, SP, 12247-016, Brazil

    G. Cunha-Zeri & M. Zeri

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  1. G. B. Lyra
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  2. J. F. Oliveira-Júnior
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  4. G. Cunha-Zeri
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Correspondence to M. Zeri.

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Lyra, G.B., Oliveira-Júnior, J.F., Gois, G. et al. Rainfall variability over Alagoas under the influences of SST anomalies. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 157–171 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0461-1

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