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Historical Land Use Explains Current Distribution of Calcareous Grassland Species

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Abstract

In this study we analyzed if characteristic calcareous grassland species persist in forest habitats after land use change. Furthermore, we investigated whether the current distribution of such species is related to historical land use of the mid-19th century. Current distributions of nine calcareous grassland species were recorded in a region of Upper Franconia, Germany. Historical (up to 1850) and current land-use data were analyzed using historical maps and aerial photographs. To study the effects of historical land use in current species distributions, we used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and ANOVA, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Variance partitioning was applied to separate the influence of historical versus current land use. On average 26% of the recorded grassland species occurrences are located in sub-optimal forest habitats. Grassland populations are likely to persist in forest for at least 50 years. Even though current land use explains a higher proportion of the variation in species distribution than historical land use alone, model fit could be significantly improved (P < 0.001) considering the historical component. We conclude that consideration of historical land use is essential to understand the current grassland species distributions and may be of general importance for perennial species of temperate grasslands. In addition, historical legacy has far-reaching implications for conservation biology in terms of realistic assessments of species threat status in present landscapes.

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Acknowledgements

The present study was financially supported by the research funding programme “LOEWE- Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz” of Hesse’s Ministry of Higher Education, Research, and the Arts. We thank the government of Upper Franconia (Oberfranken) for the permission to access the nature conservation areas for field work as well as Dr. Burkhard Neuwirth from the University of Bonn (Department of Geography) to conduct dendrochronological analysis. We are grateful to Ingolf Kühn for valuable comments on the results as well as Gudrun Carl for assistance with the GEE code. All conducted experiments comply with the current laws of Germany.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), 60325, Frankfurt a. Main, Germany

    Jonathan Heubes

  2. Department of Ecology and Geobotany, University of Frankfurt, 60323, Frankfurt a. Main, Germany

    Jonathan Heubes

  3. Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany

    Vroni Retzer & Carl Beierkuhnlein

  4. Department of Geography, Vegetation Geography, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany

    Sebastian Schmidtlein

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  1. Jonathan Heubes
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  2. Vroni Retzer
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  3. Sebastian Schmidtlein
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Correspondence to Jonathan Heubes.

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Electronic Supplementary Material 1

Spatial distribution of nine characteristic calcareous grassland species in a segment of Upper Franconia, Germany: a – Anthyllis vulneraria, b – Centaurea scabiosa, c – Cirsium acaule, d – Dianthus carthusianorum, e – Juniperus communis, f – Ononis repens, g – Sanguisorba minor, h – Scabiosa columbaria, i – Thymus pulegioides (DOC 820 kb)

Electronic Supplementary Material 2

Regression coefficients derived from generalized estimating equations (GEE). Calculation is based on a 70 × 70 m grid. The response is given by the presence/absence of calcareous grassland species while current (2005) and historical (1850) land use categories serve as predictors (binary coded). The first row of each species (2005) shows results of current land use categories, while the second row (1850) relates to historical land use categories. Positive signs (+) indicate species abundance on the respective land use categories, considering current land use. Negative signs (−) indicate species absence. Significance levels show the strength of the relation. The lower the significance level (* – P < 0.05, ** – P < 0.01, *** – P < 0.001), the higher is the probability of finding a species in the corresponding land use type. Considering the results of 1850, species occurrence in relation to historical land use types are displayed (DOC 230 kb)

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Heubes, J., Retzer, V., Schmidtlein, S. et al. Historical Land Use Explains Current Distribution of Calcareous Grassland Species. Folia Geobot 46, 1–16 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12224-010-9090-5

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