Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Earthquake risk–sensitive model for urban land use planning

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper outlines an optimisation model for land use planning which could be used by public officials and other stakeholders to prepare a risk-sensitive development plan fulfilling standard regulations of urban planning with an emphasis on earthquake protection. The presented model is based on a mixed integer quadratic programming method that produces an optimal land use distribution for a given urban area. A number of standard planning criteria namely land use suitability, accessibility and permeability to critical facilities and public services, land use resistance to change, provision of required land uses, as well as seismic hazard avoidance have been incorporated into the model. The performance of the model has been verified by benchmarking the generated outputs against expert-made plans for a pilot area in District 17th of the city of Tehran, Iran.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Based on the 2016 census data, Statistical Centre of Iran.

References

  • Aerts J, Eisinger E, Heuvelink GB, Stewart TJ (2003) Using linear integer programming for multi-site land-use allocation. Geogr Anal 35(2):148–169

    Google Scholar 

  • Alcada-Almeida L, Tralhao L, Santos L, Coutinho-Rodrigues J (2009) A multiobjective approach to locate emergency shelters and identify evacuation routes in urban areas. Geogr Anal 41(1):9–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Amini Hosseini K, Hosseini M, Izadkhah YO, Mansouri B, Shaw T (2014) Main challenges on community-based approaches in earthquake risk reduction: case study of Tehran, Iran. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.03.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amini-Hosseini K, Jafari MK (2006) Seismic risk assessment for Tehran. J Seismol Earthq Eng 9(1):11–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Anhorn J, Khazai B (2015) Open space suitability analysis for emergency shelter after an earthquake. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:789–803

    Google Scholar 

  • Bahrainy H (1998) Urban planning and design in a seismic-prone region (the case of Rasht in Northern Iran). J Urban Plan Develop 124(4):148–181

    Google Scholar 

  • Banba M, Maki N, Topping K, Hayashi H, Kondo T, Tamura K, Tatsuki S, Tanaka S, Fukasawa Y, Karatani Y (2004) In: Analysis of land use management for earthquake disaster reduction in the Asia Pacific. 13WCEE, pp 1337

  • Bhat C, Handy S, Kockelman K, Mahmassani H, Chen Q, Weston L (2000) Development of an urban accessibility index: literature review. Research Report No. 7-4938-1, The University of Texas

  • Cao K, Batty M, Huang B, Liu Y, Yu L, Chen J (2011) Spatial multi-objective land use optimization: extensions to the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 25(12):1949–1969

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang Y, Ko T (2014) An interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model to support better land use planning. Land Use Policy 36:13–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai FC, Lee CF, Zhang XH (2001) GIS-based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land use planning: a case study. Eng Geol 61:257–271

    Google Scholar 

  • Datta D, Deb K, Fonseca CM, Lobo FG, Condado PA, Seixas J (2007) Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for land use management problem. Int J Comput Intell Res 3(4):371–384

    Google Scholar 

  • Geurs KT, Wee BV (2004) Accessibility evaluation of land-use and transport strategies: review and research directions. J Transp Geogr 12:127–140

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghafory-Ashtiany M (2001) Tehran earthquake risk reduction plan, I.R. Housing Foundation, Tehran

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghafory-Ashtiany M, Jafari MK, Shadi-Talab J, Eshghi S, Qurashi M (1992) Tehran Vulnerab Anal. Balkema, Rotterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Godschalk DR, Kaiser EJ, Berke PR (1998) Integrating hazard mitigation and local land-use planning. In: Burby RJ (ed) Cooperating with nature: confronting natural hazards with land-use planning for sustainable communities. John Henry Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Hajibabaee M, Amini Hosseini K, Ghayamghamian MR (2014) Earthquake risk assessment in urban fabrics based on physical, socioeconomic and response capacity parameters (a case study: Tehran city). Nat Hazards 74(3):2229–2250

    Google Scholar 

  • Hosseini M, Amini Hosseini K (2008) Recent development in earthquake risk management plans and programs in Tehran. In: Proceedings of the 14th world conference on earthquake engineering, Beijing, China

  • Jafari MK, Amini-Hosseini K, Hosseini M, Kamalian M, Askari F, Razmkhah A, Davoodi M, Mahdavifar MR, Sohrabi-Bidar A, Keshavarz-Bakhshayesh M (2005) Seismic hazard study, Final report for tehran comprehensive plan. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, IIEES, Iran

    Google Scholar 

  • Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Center (TDMMC) (2004) The comprehensive master plan on urban seismic disaster management for the greater Tehran area in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tokyo, Japan

    Google Scholar 

  • Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) (2010) Establishment of emergency response plan for the 1st 72 hours after an earthquake in Tehran, Tehran, Iran

  • Kwan MP, Weber J (2007) Scale and accessibility: implications for the analysis of land use–travel interaction. Appl Geogr 28(2):110–123

    Google Scholar 

  • Ligmann-Zielinska A, Church R, Jankowski P (2008) Spatial Optimization as a generative technique for sustainable multiobjective landuse allocation. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 22(6):601–622

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Zhu X (2003) Accessibility analyst: an integrated GIS tool for accessibility analysis in urban transportation planning. Environ Plan B Plan Des 31:105–124

    Google Scholar 

  • Loonen W, Heuberger P, Kuijpers L (2007) Modeling land use change, chapter 9: spatial optimization in land use allocation problems. Springer, Berlin, pp 147–165

    Google Scholar 

  • Lyles LW, Berke PR, Smith G (2014) Do planners matter? Examining factors driving incorporation of land use approaches into hazard mitigation plans. J Environ Plan Manag 57(5):792–811

    Google Scholar 

  • Mansouri B, Ghafory-Ashtiany M, Amini-Hosseini K, Nourjou R, Mousavi M (2010) Building seismic loss model for Tehran. Earthq Spectra 26(1):153–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Martins VN, Cabral P, Silva DS (2012) Urban modelling for seismic prone areas: the case study of Vila Franca do Campo (Azores Archipelago, Portugal). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:2731–2741

    Google Scholar 

  • Matthews KM, Craw S, Edler S, Sibbald AR, MacKenzie I (2000) Applying genetic algorithms to multi-objective land use planning. In: GECCO’00 proceedings of the 2nd annual conference on genetic and evolutionary computation. pp 613–620

  • Mendoza GA (1997) A GIS-based multicriteria approaches to land use suitability assessment and allocation. University of Illinois, Champaign, pp 1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Motamed H, Khazai B, Ghafory-Ashtiany M, Amini-Hosseini K (2014) An automated model for optimizing budget allocation in earthquake mitigation scenarios. Nat Hazards 70(1):51–68

    Google Scholar 

  • Olshansky RB (2007) Land use planning for seismic safety: the los angeles county experience, 1971–1994. J Am Plan Assoc 67(2):173–185

    Google Scholar 

  • Omidvar B, Baradaran-Shoraka M, Nojavan M (2013) Temporary site selection and decision making methods: a case study of Tehran. Iran. Disasters. 37(3):536–553

    Google Scholar 

  • Pourmohammadi M (2003) Urban land use planning. Samt Publisher (in Persian)

  • Reyes ML (2004) Risk-sensitive land use planning: towards reduced seismic disaster vulnerability—the case study of Marikina City, Philippines. Kassel University Press, Metro Manila. ISBN 3-89958-106-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Robat Mili R, Amini Hosseini K, Izadkhah YO (2018) Developing a holistic model for earthquake risk assessment and disaster management interventions in urban fabrics. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 27:355–365

    Google Scholar 

  • Sengezer B, Koç E (2005) A critical analysis of earthquakes and urban planning in Turkey. Disasters 29:171–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0361-3666.2005.00279.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaygan M, Alimohammadi A, Mansourian A, Govara ZS, Kalami SM (2014) Spatial multi-objective optimization approach for land use allocation using NSGA-II. J Select Top Appl Earth Observ Remote Sens 7(3):906–916

    Google Scholar 

  • Soltani A, Zargari-Marandi E (2011) Hospital site selection using two-stage fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. J Urban Environ Eng 5(1):32–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Soltani A, Ardalan A, Darvishi Boloorani A, Haghdoost A, Hosseinzadeh-Attar MJ (2014) Site selection criteria for sheltering after earthquakes: a systematic review. PLOS Curr Disasters. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.17ad1f98fb85be80785d0a81ced6a7a6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trivedi A, Singh A (2017) Prioritizing emergency shelter areas using hybrid multi-criteria decision approach: a case study. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 24(3):133–145

    Google Scholar 

  • Tudes S, Yigter ND (2010) Preparation of land use planning model using GIS based on AHP: case study Adana-Turkey. Bull Eng Geol Environ 69:235–245

    Google Scholar 

  • Vahidinia MH, Alesheikh AA, Alimohammadi A (2009) Hospital site selection using fuzzy AHP and its derivatives. J Environ Manag 90:3048–3056

    Google Scholar 

  • Ye M, Wang J, Huang J, Xu S, Chen Z (2012) Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster. Nat Hazards 61:881–892

    Google Scholar 

  • Zebardast E, Mohammadi A (2005) Site selection for post-earthquake relief centers using GIS and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). J Fine Arts 21:5–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang HH, Zeng Y, Bian L (2010) Simulating multi-objective spatial optimization allocation of land use based on the integration of multi-agent system and genetic algorithm. Int J Environ Res 4(4):765–776

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhifen C, Xiang C, Qiang L, Jin C (2013) The temporal hierarchy of shelters: a hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 27(8):1612–1630

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

    Hooman Motamed, Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany, Kambod Amini-Hosseini & Babak Mansouri

  2. Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe, Germany

    Bijan Khazai

Authors
  1. Hooman Motamed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kambod Amini-Hosseini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Babak Mansouri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Bijan Khazai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hooman Motamed.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Motamed, H., Ghafory-Ashtiany, M., Amini-Hosseini, K. et al. Earthquake risk–sensitive model for urban land use planning. Nat Hazards 103, 87–102 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03960-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03960-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation