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An integrated modelling approach to forecast the impact of human pressure in the Seine estuary

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Abstract

Within the framework of the European Water Framework Directive, the Seine-Normandie Water Agency has defined prospective scenarios describing possible trends of evolution of the pressures on water resources. In order to evaluate the resulting water quality improvement or degradation of water bodies in the Seine river basin, an integrated modelling was proposed. The approach consisted in coupling three models, the seneque model for upstream sub-basins, the ProSe model for the Seine river and main tributaries and finally the s i am1d model for the downstream estuary. After consistency verification, the integrated model was applied to scenarios proposed by the Seine-Normandie Water Agency. As a result of improvement in the nitrogen treatment by waste water treatment plants, the annual load of ammonia at the basin scale will be reduced by 65%. The oxygen and ammonia criteria in the estuary will improve from “bad” to “good”. However the nitrate criteria will remain “poor”, given the strong influence of non-point sources. Despite a 70–75% drop of the point orthophosphate loads, the criteria for this variable will also remain “poor”. The nutrient levels will be high enough to maintain eutrophication in the system; a general trend to a shift from N-limitation to P-limitation will be accentuated.

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Acknowledgements

This work, initiated by the Water Authority on the Seine Basin, has benefited from the knowledge gained in the framework of Research Projects on the Seine basin, namely the piren Seine and the Seine-aval, in which numerous research teams and institutions concerned with water problems are involved, such as the Water Authority in the Seine basin, the Seine Navigation Service (sns), the Interdistrict Federation for Sewage of Greater Paris (siaap), the Compagnie Générale des Eaux (cge). We thanks all the institutions involved in the sampling and diffusion of data (sns, siaap, cge) as well as the Laboratory of Aquatic Systems Ecology at the University of Brussels, that was greatly involved in the conceptual development of the rive model. We are grateful to the cereve at the École des Ponts et Chaussée, whose studies on wwtps and combined sewer overflow impacts, were to a large extend processed in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre de Géosciences, École des Mines de Paris, 35 rue Saint Honoré, F-77 305, Fontainebleau cedex, France

    S. Even

  2. DEL/PC, IFREMER, Zone portuaire de Brégaillon, BP 330, F-83507, La Seyne Sur Mer, France

    B. Thouvenin

  3. GIP Seine Aval, 12 avenue Aristide Briand, F-76000, Rouen, France

    N. Bacq

  4. UMR Sisyphe 7619, CNRS-Paris VI, Boite 105, 4 place Jussieu, F-75005, Paris, France

    G. Billen & J. Garnier

  5. Agence de l’Eau Seine-Normandie, 51, rue Salvador-Allende, F-92027, Nanterre, France

    L. Guezennec & S. Blanc

  6. Service de Navigation de la Seine, 66 Av. J. Chastellain, F-76000, Rouen, France

    A. Ficht

  7. DEL/PC/TP, IFREMER, BP, BP 70, F-29280, Plouzane, France

    P. Le Hir

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  1. S. Even
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  2. B. Thouvenin
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  3. N. Bacq
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  4. G. Billen
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  5. J. Garnier
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  8. A. Ficht
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  9. P. Le Hir
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Correspondence to S. Even.

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Even, S., Thouvenin, B., Bacq, N. et al. An integrated modelling approach to forecast the impact of human pressure in the Seine estuary. Hydrobiologia 588, 13–29 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-007-0649-y

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