Construction of four dams on the lower Snake River (in northwestern United States) between 1961 and 1975 altered salmon spawning habitat, elevated smolt and adult migration mortality, and contributed to severe declines of Snake River salmon populations. By applying a matrix model to long-term population data, we found that (i) dam passage improvements have dramatically mitigated direct mortality associated with dams; (ii) even if main stem survival were elevated to 100%, Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) would probably continue to decline toward extinction; and (iii) modest reductions in first-year mortality or estuarine mortality would reverse current population declines.