NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Collections About News Help Login
Back to Results
Predicting Well-Connected SEP Events from Observations of Solar EUVs and Energetic ProtonsThis study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.
Document ID
20190032576
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
doi:10.1051/swsc/2019025
Authors
Nunez, Marlon (Universidad de Malaga Malaga, Spain)
Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Pulkkinen, Antti A. (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
November 7, 2019
Publication Date
June 17, 2019
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
Publisher: EDP Sciences
Volume: 9
e-ISSN: 2115-7251
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN73767
6702019015P
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Use by or on behalf of the US Gov. Permitted.
Technical Review
Professional Review

Related Records

There are no records associated with this record.
No Preview Available