NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Collections About News Help Login
Back to Results
Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction ToolThe Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.
Document ID
20190001886
Acquisition Source
Glenn Research Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Myers, Jerry G. (NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH, United States)
Garcia, Yamil Lionel (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Arellano, John D. (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Boley, Lynn Addy (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Goodenow, Debra A. (NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH, United States)
Kerstman, Eric Lee (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Koslovsky, M. (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Reyes, David Paul (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Saile, Lynn (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Taiym, Wafa F. (Wyle Labs., Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Young, Millennia H. (NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
March 26, 2019
Publication Date
September 16, 2018
Subject Category
Aerospace Medicine
Report/Patent Number
GRC-E-DAA-TN60336
Meeting Information
Meeting: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 14)
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: September 16, 2018
End Date: September 21, 2018
Sponsors: International Association for PSAM
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNJ15HK11B
WBS: WBS 836404.01.02.10
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS9-02078
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
risk assessment
medical equipment
validation

Related Records

There are no records associated with this record.
No Preview Available