NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Collections About News Help Login
Back to Results
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal PredictionThe recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.
Document ID
20140012057
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
External Source(s)
doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
Authors
Kirtman, Ben P. (Miami Univ. Miami, FL, United States)
Min, Dughong (Miami Univ. Miami, FL, United States)
Infanti, Johnna M. (Miami Univ. Miami, FL, United States)
Kinter, James L., III (Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc. Calverton, MD, United States)
Paolino, Daniel A. (Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc. Calverton, MD, United States)
Zhang, Qin (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
vandenDool, Huug (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Saha, Suranjana (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Mendez, Malaquias Pena (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Becker, Emily (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Peng, Peitao (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Tripp, Patrick (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
Huang, Jin (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Camp Springs, MD, United States)
DeWitt, David G. (Columbia Univ. Palisades, NY, United States)
Tippett, Michael K. (Columbia Univ. Palisades, NY, United States)
Barnston, Anthony G. (Columbia Univ. Palisades, NY, United States)
Li, Shuhua (Columbia Univ. Palisades, NY, United States)
Rosati, Anthony (Princeton Univ. NJ, United States)
Schubert, Siegfried D. (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Rienecker, Michele (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Suarez, Max (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Li, Zhao E. (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Marshak, Jelena (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Lim, Young-Kwon (Universities Space Research Association Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Tribbia, Joseph (National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Pegion, Kathleen (Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Merryfield, William J. (Environment Canada Fredericton, Canada)
Denis, Bertrand (Environment Canada Fredericton, Canada)
Wood, Eric F. (Princeton Univ. Princeton, NJ, United States)
Date Acquired
September 18, 2014
Publication Date
January 1, 2013
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN12698
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12HP06C
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11HP16A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
NOAA CPC
NOAA CTB
NMME

Related Records

There are no records associated with this record.
No Preview Available