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Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder dataAlthough many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.
Document ID
19830006563
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Other
Authors
Kidder, S. Q. (Illinois Univ. Urbana, IL, United States)
Date Acquired
September 4, 2013
Publication Date
December 1, 1982
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
83N14834
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAG5-132
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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