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Solar activity predictionA statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Document ID
19720005158
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Contractor Report (CR)
Authors
Slutz, R. J. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Gray, T. B. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
West, M. L. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Stewart, F. G. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Leftin, M. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Date Acquired
August 6, 2013
Publication Date
November 1, 1971
Publication Information
Publisher: NASA
Subject Category
Space Radiation
Report/Patent Number
NASA-CR-1939
Accession Number
72N12807
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NASA ORDER H-54409-A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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