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From Lin Biao to Deng Xiaoping: Elite Instability and China's U.S. Policy *

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Extract

In the field of Chinese foreign policy, the debate continues over the importance of domestic and international factors in policy–making. Scholars arguing in favour of the special importance of domestic politics in the formulation of policy point to the existence of elite differences over foreign policy and contend that the shifting fortunes of individual leaders and the leadership turnover associated with succession politics can significantly shape China's security policy. Other scholars stress the importance of such international factors as shifting global balances of power, changing alliance patterns, and relative bargaining strengths in Beijing's foreign policy.

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Research Article
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Copyright © The China Quarterly 1989

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References

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21. Also see Bridgham, “The fall of Lin Piao,” p. 435, on Mao's need for caution and circumspection after the Lushan Plenum. Cf. Garver, China's Decision for Rapproche– ment, pp. 135–37.

22. For the official reports, see Xinhua, 30 September 1978, FBIS/PRC, 1 October 1970, pp. Bl–2. Edgar Snow's account is in his The Long Revolution (New York, Random House, 1972), pp. 3–4.

23. Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 700–701.

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25. Kao (ed.), The Lin Piao Affair, p.89.

26. Derong, Zheng, et al. (principal eds.), Xin zhongguo jishi, 1949–1984 (Record of New China) (Changchun: North–east Normal University Press, 1986), p. 492; Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 620; Zheng Derong and Zhu Yang (principal eds.), Zhongguo gongchandang lishi jiangyi (Teaching Materials on the History on the Chinese Communist Party), Vol. 2, 5th edit. (Jilin People's Press, 1985), p. 199.Google Scholar

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29. Kissinger, White House Years, p. 696.

30. Xinhua, 8 April 1970, FBIS/PRC, 8 April 1970, p. 5–6.

31. Xinhua, 25 June 1970, FBIS/PRC, 25 June 1970, pp. A8–9.

32. Mao Zedong, “People of the world unite and defeat the U.S. aggressors and all their running dogs!” Xinhua, 20 May 1970, FBIS/PRC, 20 May 1970, pp. A1–2.

33. For Zhou's remarks, see, e.g., Xinhua, 2 September 1970, FBIS/PRC, 3 September 1970, pp. A23–25; Xinhua, 30 September 1970, FBIS/PRC, 1 October 1970, pp. B4–5. On the July signalling, see Kissinger, White House Years, p. 697.

34. Renmin ribao (People's Daily), 1 March 1972, p. 1.

35. Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, pp. 631–33.

36. See, e.g., Oksenberg, Michel, “A decade of Sino–American relations,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 61, No. 1 (1982), pp. 182–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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38. See Kissinger's record of his 1973 discussions with Mao and Zhou in Kissinger, Henry, Years of Upheaval (Boston: Little, Brown, 1982), pp. 55, 67, 690.Google Scholar Also see President Ford's discussion of Deng Xiaoping's opposition to détente in Ford, Gerald R., A Time to Heal: The Autobiography of Gerald R. Ford (New York: Harper and Row, 1979), p. 335. For an extended discussion of this process, see Ross, “International bargaining and domestic politics,” pp. 263–67, passim.Google Scholar

39. On U.S. relations with Taiwan during this period, see Barnett, A. Doak, China and the Major Powers in East Asia (Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1977), pp. 205207.Google Scholar

40. There is no need here to either establish or detail the respective foreign policy positions.The best description of their preference during this period is Lieberthal, “The foreign policy debate in Peking,” pp. 533–39.

41. Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, pp. 639–40.

42. The most comprehensive discussion of the Changsha meetings of 18 October meeting between Wang Hongwen and Mao and of 20 October between Mao and Wang Hairong and Tang Wenshen is drawn from the 1980 trial of the “gang of four.” See Ming, Zhou (principal ed.), Lishi zai zheli chensi (History is Pondering Here). Vol. II (Beijing: Huaxia Press, 1986), pp. 196203. Because much of the testimony cited in this work is from secondary participants in the trial, much of the information is not available in the official record of the trial of the principal defendants.Google Scholar

43. Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, pp. 638–39; Ming, Zhou, History is Pondering Here, Vol. I (Beijing: Huaxia Press, 1986), pp. 7576.Google Scholar

44. Dun, Sun, et al. (eds.), Zhongguo gongchandang lishi jiangyi (TeachingMaterials on the History of the Chinese Communist Party), Vol. II (Jinan: Shandong People's Press, 1985), pp. 295–96; Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, pp. 645–46.Google Scholar

45. “Ye Jianying yuanshuai weida guanghui” (“Marshal Ye Jianying's life of greatness and glory”), Renmin ribao (overseas edit.), 30 October 1986.

46. It is significant that Zhou never directly criticized U.S. policy towards Taiwan. Documents of the First Session of the Fourth National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China (Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1975), p. 60. Cf. Barnett, China and the Major Powers in East Asia, p. 205.Google Scholar

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48. U.S. Congress, Ninth Congressional Delegation to the People's Republic of China (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976). p. 21.Google Scholar

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50. Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 647. For Mao's statement, see Peking Review, 12 September 1975, p. 7.

51. Jiang's speech has yet to be released. It is discussed in Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 647.

52. Ibid. p. 649; Sun Dun, Teaching Materials on the History of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 298. For a more extensive discussion of the Water Margin campaign, see Goldman, Merle, Chinese Intellectuals: Advise and Dissent (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981).Google Scholar

53. Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 649.

54. FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, 7 January 1976, p. 9.

55. Xinhua, 21 February 1976, FBIS/PRC, 23 February 1976, p. A5; Xinhua, 22 February 1976, FBIS/PRC, 23 February 1976, p. A9; Xinhua, 23 February 1976, FBIS/PRC, 23 February 1976, p. A3.

56. U.S. Congress, Visit to the People's Republic of China (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976), pp. 37. Also note the invitation to former Secretary of Defence James Schlesinger to visit China. See FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, 9 September 1976, p. 25.Google Scholar

57. U.S. Congress, The United States and China (Washington D.C.: U.S. Govern– ment Printing Office, 1976), pp. 23, 16, 18.Google Scholar

58. Weizhong, Fang, Zhonghua renmin gongheguo jingji dashiji (Economic Chrono– logy of the People's Republic of China) (Beijing: Chinese Social Science Press, 1984), pp. 559–60.Google Scholar For the trade statistics, see Barnett, A. Doak, China's Economy in Global Perspective (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1981), p. 507.Google Scholar

59. Barnett, China's Economy in Global Perspective, p. 508.

60. On Sino–Japanese trade during this period, see Lee, Chae–Jin, China and Japan: New Economic Diplomacy (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 1984), pp. 1720.Google Scholar For a fuller discussion of the politics of Chinese foreign economic policy, see Ann Fenwick, “China's foreign trade policy and the campaign against Deng Xiaoping,” in Fingar (ed.), China's Quest for Independence; Whiting, Allen S., Chinese Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy in the 1970s (Ann Arbor: Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan, 1979), pp. 5376.Google Scholar

61. See Ross, The Indochina Tangle, Chs 2 and 3.

62. See the discussion of President Carter in Xin Wan Bao (Hong Kong), 6 November 1976, FBIS/PRC, 10 November 1976, pp. NN1–2. Also note the discussion of the formation of Committee on the Present Danger in Xinhua, 12 November 1976, FBIS/PRC, 15 November 1976, pp. A4–5.

63. See the discussion of the Carter Administration's initial reluctance to tackle the Taiwan issue in Vance, Cyrus, Hard Choices: Critical Years in America's Foreign Policy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983), p. 79; Oksenberg, “A decade of Sino–American relations,” p. 182.Google Scholar

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65. Zheng Derong, Record of New China, p. 604; Hao Mengbi and Duan Haoran, Sixty Years of the Chinese Communist Party, Vol. 2, p. 671; Shao Pengwen, Teaching Materials on the History of the Chinese Communist Party, p. 338.

66. Interview with Michel Oksenberg, National Security Council Staff member with responsibility for China in the Carter Administration. Oksenberg accompanied Vance to Beijing.

67. Ross, The Indochina Tangle, Ch. 6.

68. Deng might have assumed responsibility for foreign policy earlier in the year, perhaps even before he returned to work in early May, as some Chinese privately contend. Yet, his leadership was not publicly evident until later in the year. The most that can be said is that his authority had emerged no later than the summer.

69. See the eulogy in Xinhua, 18 September 1976, FBIS, 20 September 1976, pp. A7–11. Also see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, 22 September 1976, p. 7. For similar formulations during this period, see the 2 November announcement by the CCP Central Committee, the NPC Standing Committee, the State Council, and the CCP Military Affairs Commission in Xinhua, 2 November 1976, FBIS, 2 November 1976, pp. A1–2.

70. U.S. Congress, The United States and China, p. 2; Xinhua, 14 November 1976, FBIS/PRC, 15 November 1976, p. A3.

71. See the report of the delegation's press conference in Agence France Presse, 22 November 1976, FBIS/PRC, 22 November 1976, p. A5. Senator Mike Mansfield, although more concerned with resolving the Taiwan issue, received essentially the same impression in conversations with Chinese leaders in Beijing in early October. See U.S.Congress, China Enters the Post–Mao Era (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976), p. 9.Google Scholar

72. Peking Domestic Service, 11 January 1977; FBIS/PRC, 13 January 1977, pp. E9–10.

73. Allen Whiting argues that the Chinese calculus of deterrence includes the propositions that “The worse our domestic situation, the more likely our external situation will worsen” and “A superior power will seek to take advantage of (China's) domestic vulnerability.” See Whiting, Allen S., The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975), pp. 201205.Google Scholar

74. For a Soviet discussion of Moscow's initiatives, see Gromyko, A.A. and Ponomarev, B.N. (eds.), Soviet Foreign Policy: Volume II, 1945–1980 (4th, rev. and enlarged edit.) (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1981), pp. 565–66.Google Scholar Among various western analyses, see Mills, William de B., Sino–Soviet Interactions, May 1977–June 1980, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Michigan, 1981, pp. 2630;Google ScholarSegal, Gerald, Sino–Soviet Relations after Mao(London: International Institute for Strategic Studies. Adelphi Papers, No. 202, 1985), p. 6. On the negotiations and the brief lull in Chinese polemics, see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, 22 December 1976, p. 12. Particularly note Beijing's charge that “Moscow even haughtily demanded that we change our policy.” Cited in FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, 5 January 1977, p. 9.Google Scholar

75. The learn from Dazhai speech is in Xinhua, 28 December 1976, FBIS/PRC, 28 December 1976, pp. E2–15. Also see Li Xiannian's many comments in late 1976 and early 1977 criticizing Soviet overtures. On Chinese apprehension over Soviet intentions, see in particular the Renmin ribao article discussing Soviet “nuclear intimidation” of China and the need for vigilance. “Down with nuclear superstition,” Renmin ribao, 13 May 1977; FBIS/PRC, 13 May 1977, pp. E26–27.

76. FBIS/Trends in Communist Media, 2 March 1977, pp. 7–9; Ibid. 7 July 1977, pp. 3–4.

77. I am grateful to Michael Yahuda for this information. For a particularly authoritative and harsh attack on détente, see Ren Guping, “The Munich tragedy and contemporary appeasement,” Renmin ribao, 26 November 1978, in Peking Review, 9 December 1978, pp. 6–11.

78. Vance, Hard Choices, pp. 79–83; Oksenberg, “A decade of Sino–American relations,” pp. 182–83.

79. On the course of the normalization negotiations, see Oksenberg, “A decade on Sino–American relations,” p. 187. Regarding the developments in Indo–China, see Ross, The Indochina Tangle, Ch. 8.

80. See his interview in Time magazine, 5 February 1979, p. 34.

81. Carol Hamrin, “China reassesses the superpowers.”

82. L'Unita, 8 January 1982; FBIS/PRC, 9 January 1982, pp. Gl–2. For addition comments by Li, see, e.g., Xinhua, 24 January 1982, FBIS/PRC, 25 January 1982, pp. K2–4. Also see Lieberthal, “Domestic politics and foreign policy,” p. 65; Hamrin, “China reassesses the superpowers,” p. 218.

83. Hamrin, “China reassess the superpowers.” For a more comprehensive discus– sion of the coalitions and their domestic policy preferences, see Solinger, Dorothy, “The Fifth National People's Congress and the process of policy making: reform, readjust– ment, and the opposition,” Asian Survey, Vol. XXII, No. 12 (December 1982).Google Scholar

84. Compare the U.S. and Chinese speeches during Vice–president Mondale's 1979 visit to China and Secretary of Defence Harold Brown's 1980 visit to China. See, for example, Hamrin, “China reassesses the superpowers”; Ross, “International bargaining and domestic politics”; Sutter, Robert G., Chinese Foreign Policy: Developments After Mao(New York: Praeger Publishers, 1986), pp. 8797.Google Scholar

85. For a discussion of these developments, see Ross, “International bargaining and domestic politics,” pp. 271–82.

86. For a discussion of Deng's preeminence in foreign policy, see Barnett, A. Doak, The Making of Foreign Policy in China; Structure and Process (Boulder: Westview Press, 1985), pp. 917.Google Scholar

87. For an extended discussion of this transformation, see Ross. “International bargaining and domestic politics.” Cf. Hamrin, “China reassesses the superpowers.”

88. For an examination of China's evolving Soviet policy during this period, see Mills, “Sino–Soviet interactions, May 1977–June 1980;” William Hyland, “The Sino– Soviet conflict: dilemmas of the strategic triangle” in Solomon, Richard (ed.), The China Factor (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1981).Google Scholar

89. For Hu Yaobang's remarks, see Zhongguo xinwen she, 10 April 1985, FBIS/PRC, 11 April 1985, p. E2.

90. For a general treatment of this dynamic in communist systems, see Rush, Myron, How Communist States Change Their Rulers (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1974), Ch. 1.Google Scholar

91. For the Chinese case, see, e.g., the discussion of the powerful domestic constituencies which shape domestic reform policy in Susan Shirk, “The politics of industrial reform,” in Perry, Elizabeth and Wong, Christine (eds.). The Political Economy of Reform in Post–Mao China (Cambridge, Mass.: Council on East Asian Studies/Harvard University, 1985).CrossRefGoogle Scholar For a discussion of the less developed form of this process during the Maoist era, see Oksenberg, Michel, “Occupational groups in Chinese society and the Cultural Revolution,” in Oksenberg, (ed.), The Cultural Revolution: 1967 in Review (Ann Arbor: Center for Chinese Studies, Unversity of Michigan. Michigan Papers in Chinese Studies, No. 2, 1968).Google Scholar

92. See Shirk, Susan, “The domestic political dimensions of China's foreign economic relations,” in Kim, Samuel S. (ed.), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy in the Post–Mao Era (Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, 1984).Google Scholar