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China's Grain Production 1975–80 and 1952–57 Some Basic Statistics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Kenneth R. Walker
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Extract

The publication of basic agricultural statistics by China for the first time in 20 years has quickened the collective pulse of western economists. During the decade of the 1960s there were virtually no statistics and economic discussion of the performance of agriculture was almost restricted to asking “ How much grain does China produce? ” In the early years of the 1970s some national and provincial grain production figures began to appear, but they were fragmentary, often inconsistent and difficult to interpret. Even so, there was a much better statistical basis for economic analysis than had previously existed and the situation improved right up to the fall of the “ gang of four.” Since 1976 the increase in the supply of statistics has been swift, and especially since 1978, quite dramatic and exciting. For economists interested in agriculture, the publication of the new journal Nongye jingji wenti (Problems of Agricultural Economics) by the Agricultural Economic Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Science, and the resurrection of Nongcun gongzuo tongxun (Rural Work Bulletin), have been particularly important.

Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 86 , June 1981 , pp. 215 - 247
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1981

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References

* I should like to thank Professor C. B. Howe, Dr R. F. Ash and Dr W. Klatt, OBE, for reading this article so carefully and for suggesting improvements.

1. See for example, Perkins, Dwight H., “Economic growth in China and the Cultural Revolution,” CQ, No. 30 (April-June 1967), pp. 33–48;CrossRefGoogle ScholarField, Robert Michael, “How much grain does China produce?”, CQ, No. 33 (January-March 1968), pp. 98–107;CrossRefGoogle ScholarSwamy, Subramanian and Burki, Shahid Javed, “Foodgrains output in the People's Republic of China, 1958–1965,” CQ, No. 41 (January-March 1970), pp. 58–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2. Monthly periodical, first issue January 1980 (hereafter NYJJWT).

3. Monthly periodical, first issue October 1979.

4. Report on the fulfilment of the National Economic Plan for 1980, Renmin ribao (RMRB), 30 April 1981.

5. Donnithorne, Audrey, “Recent economic developments,” CQ, No. 60 (December 1974), pp. 772–4.CrossRefGoogle ScholarWalker, Kenneth R., Provincial Grain Output in China 1952–1957: A Statistical Compilation (London: Contemporary China Institute, School of Oriental and African Studies. Research Notes and Studies, No. 3) 1977).Google Scholar

6. According to statements made to the author by several Chinese economists.

7. For example Muqiao, Xue: Honqi, No. 10 (1979), pp. 40–49;Google Scholar1980 Zhongguo baike nianjian (Chinese Encyclopaedia Yearbook for 1980; hereafter Encyclopaedia) (Shanghai, 1980), p. 341.Google Scholar

8. RMRB, 19 January 1981.

9. Jishu jingji he guanli xiandaihua wenji (Essays on Technical Economics and Management) (Beijing 1979), p. 131.Google Scholar The substitution of one crop of “ middle ” rice for two crops in 1977 resulted in an increase in output of one million tons. See also RMRB, 23 November 1979 and Beijing Review, No. 48 (1978), pp. 20–23. For a discussion on the problems of resource allocation encountered in China when attempts were made to extend double cropping during the 1950s, see Walker, Kenneth R., “Organisation of agricultural production,” in Alexander Eckstein, Walter Galenson and Ta-chung Liu, Economic Trends in Communist China (Chicago: Aldine, 1968), pp. 397–458.Google Scholar

10. Details for many provinces are to be found in Gengzuo gaizhi di ke xue jishu (The Science and Technology of Reforming the System of Arable Work) compiled by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 1979. For example, the double-cropped area of rice in Hubei increased by 0·662 million hectares (131 per cent) between 1966 and 1976, and rice output rose by 3·95 million tons; Ibid.. pp. 20–26.

11. Some of the land taken out of grain would, of course, be low-yielding for example, former pastureland in the north-west. Just how small the grain yields on this kind of land were may be illustrated from inner Mongolia: the average grain yield (over a four-year period) on ploughed grassland in this province was 0·4 tons per hectare and the range was from 0·15 tons to 0·75 tons per hectare. See Essays on Technical Economics, p. 136.

12. RMRB, 9 February 1981.

13. SWB,31 January 1981.

14. NYJJWT, No. 1 (1981), p. 26.

15. SWB, 5 November 1980.

16. That is, after adding assumed output for the missing two provinces. It should also be remembered that the grain output of Tibet was 0·505 million tons in 1980 (SWB, 3 June 1981).

17. Yefeng, Sun, “The chequered history of statistical work,” Jingji guanli (Economic Management JJGL), No. 37 (1981), pp. 3–5.Google Scholar

18. RMRB, 11 September 1980.

19. The extent of such amendments in arriving at a final figure is illustrated by 1979, when the national total was altered four times:

Hongqi, No. 4(1980), p. 2 (16 February): 31500 million tons

Beijing Review, No. 12(1980), p. 14 (24 March): 312·50 million tons

Beijing Review, No. 15(1980), p. 17(21 April): 324·90 million tons*

RMRB, 1 May 1980: 332·15 million tons†

* Statement made by Li Renjun, vice-minister in charge of the State Planning Commission in Report on the Economic Plan for 1979.

† State Statistical Bureau's figure.

20. Hongqi, No. 10(1980), pp. 15–21.

21. SWB,1 April 1981.

22. Muqiao, Xue, Dangqian woguo jingji ruogan wenti, (Beijing, 1980), p. 128.Google Scholar

23. Atkinson, A. B., “On the measurement of inequality“ in Atkinson, A. B. (ed.), Wealth, Income and Inequality, (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1973), pp. 46–71. I must thank my colleague Peter Ayre for kindly drawing my attention to this literature.Google Scholar