THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT AND CORONAL HOLE CYCLES AND A FORECAST OF THE MAXIMUM OF SUNSPOT CYCLE 23

Abstract

We have shown in previous papers that a close relationship exists between the evolution of polar coronal hole area, estimated from K-coronameter observations, and the Wolf sunspot number, with a time lag of about half a solar cycle. In this paper we study the same relationship, but with the total coronal hole area at the base of the corona as obtained from a potential field model of the coronal magnetic field, which provides a more complete series of about three solar cycles. We confirm the relationship for the two last cycles and find that the forward time shift in the coronal hole area for the best correlation with sunspot number is almost the same for cycles 21 and 22, and this shift is also the time between peaks in both series. We use this result to make an early prediction of the time and size of the sunspot maximum for solar cycle 23, and find that this should occur early in 2001 and have a magnitude of about 190, similar to that of the two previous sunspot cycles.