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Unplanned and unforeseen effects of instabilities

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Abstract

The nature-society system is proposed as the relevant analytical unit for the sociological study of disasters. Like other complex systems, this system has emergent properties: its instabilities are the disasters. They often arise as a result of adoption by a community of specific technologies, e.g., housing technologies, that turn out to be unstable in the presence of critical natural or social changes. The following earthquake disasters were caused by unplanned and unforeseen features of housing or siting technologies: Huaxian 1556 (caves in loess), Yungay 1970 (siting in the path of an avalanche), and Mexico 1985 (high-rise buildings on soft ground). Disasters have anarchaeology, in the sense that the instabilities in the nature-society system are not static. This is demonstrated by tracing the 1985 Mexico earthquake disaster back to decisions on urban planning taken after 1521. It is not enough to know the hazard and the vulnerability in order to understand disasters. Technological solutions also have a local history.

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Castaños, H., Lomnitz, C. Unplanned and unforeseen effects of instabilities. Nat Hazards 11, 45–56 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00613309

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00613309

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