Skip to main content
Log in

Bene-Eia: A Bayesian Approach to Expert Judgment Elicitation with Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts on Surface Waters

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climatic change impact studies are among the most complicated environmental assessments scientists have ever faced. The questions that policy makers face are enormous. There is plenty of experience and systematization in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice, especially at project level studies, but it has not been fully utilized in climatic change studies, we argue. Screening and scoping in EIA are typical examples. Beset by uncertainty and interdisciplinary divisions, climatic change impact analyses and policy assessments have been dominated by very detailed studies without the prior cross-sectorial, integrative phases that would aid in focusing the issues. Here, we present a probabilistic, Bayesian impact matrix approach (BeNe-EIA) for expert judgment elicitation, using belief networks from artificial intelligence. One or more experts are used to define a Bayesian prior distribution to each of the selected attributes, and the interattribute links, of the system under study. Posterior probabilities are calculated interactively, indicating consistency of the assessment and allowing iterative analysis of the system. Illustration is given by 2 impact studies of surface waters. In addition to climatic change studies, the approach has been designed to be applicable to conventional EIA. Insufficient attention has thus far been devoted to the probabilistic nature of the assessment and potential inconsistencies in expert judgment.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baum, W. C.: 1982, Project Cycle, The World Bank, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beanlands, G.: 1988, ‘Scoping Methods and Baseline Studies in EIA’, in Wathern, P. (ed.), Environmental Impact Assessment, Theory and Practice, Routledge, London, pp. 33–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bisset, R.: 1988, ‘Developments in EIA Methods’, in Wathern, P. (ed.), Environmental Impact Assessment, Theory and Practice, Routledge, London, pp. 47–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Biswas, A. K. and Geping, Q.: 1987, Environmental Impact Assessment for Developing Countries, UNU/Tycooly, London, p. 232.

    Google Scholar 

  • Canter, L. W., Atkinson, S. F., and Leistritz, F. L.: 1985, Impacts of Growth, Lewis, Chelsea, MI, p. 542.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ebisemiju, F. S.: 1993, ‘Environmental Impact Assessment: Making It Work in Developing Countries’, J. Environ. Manage. 38, 247–273.

    Google Scholar 

  • EBRD: 1994, Environmental Impact Assessment Legislation: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London, p. 352.

    Google Scholar 

  • EIA Centre: 1992, ‘EIA Guidelines’, University of Manchester, Leaflet Series 12.

  • Fiering, M. B. and Rogers, P.: 1989, ‘Climate Change and Water Resources Planning under Uncertainty’, Report for U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Golden, J., Ouellette, R. P., Saari, S., and Cheremisinoff, P. N.: 1979, Environmental Impact Data Book, Ann Arbor Science, Ann Arbor, MI, p. 874.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammit, J. K.: 1995, ‘Outcome and Value Uncertainties in Global-Change Policy’, Clim. Change 30, 125–145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horwitz, E. J., Breese, J. S., and Henrion, M.: 1988, ‘Decision Theory in Expert Systems and Artificial Intelligence’, Int. J. Approxim. Reason. 2, 247–302.

    Google Scholar 

  • Järnefelt, H.: 1956, ‘Materialien zur Hydrobiologie des Sees Tuusulanjärvi’, Acta Soc. Fauna et Flora Fennica 71, 1–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuikka, S. and Varis, O.: 1997, ‘Climatic Change Impact Assessment: A Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis on Boreal Watersheds’, Boreal Environ. Res. 2, 109–128.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kämäri, J. (ed.): 1997, ‘Special Issue on Climate Change and Waters in the Boreal Zone’, Boreal Environ. Res. 2, 1–128.

  • Laurmann, J. A.: 1991, ‘Global Warming and the Credibility of Science’, Clim. Change 18, 107–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, N. (ed.): 1992, ‘Special Issue on Strategic Environmental Assessment’, Project Appraisal 7, 125–192.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, N. and Walsh, F.: 1992, ‘Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Overview’, Project Appraisal 7, 126–136.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lohani, B. N.: 1984, Environmental Quality Management, South Asian Publishers, New Delhi, p. 452.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lohani, B. N. and Halim, N.: 1987, ‘Recommended Methodologies for Rapid Environmental Impact Assessment in Developing Countries: Experiences Derived from Case Studies in Thailand’, in Biswas, A. K. and Geping, Q. (eds.), Environmental Impact Assessment in Developing Countries, UNU/Tycooly, London, pp. 65–111.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M. G. and Keith, D. W.: 1995, ‘Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts’, Environ. Sci. Technol. 29, 468–476.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearl, J.: 1986, ‘Fusion, Propagation, and Structuring in Belief Networks’, Artif. Intellig. 29, 241–288.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearl, J.: 1988, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, p. 552.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pekkarinen, M.: 1990, ‘Comprehensive Survey of the Hypertrophic Lake Tuusulanjärvi, Nutrient Loading, Water Quality and Prospects of Restoration’, Aqua Fennica 20, 13–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roos, J.: 1996, The Finnish Research Programme on Climatic Change: Final Report, Edita, Helsinki, p. 505.

    Google Scholar 

  • Räisänen, J.: 1994, ‘A Comparison of the Results of Seven GCM Experiments in Northern Europe’, Geophysica 30, 3–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T. L.: 1980, The Analytic Hierarchy Process — Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation, McGraw-Hill, New York, p. 287.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S. H.: 1990a, Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?, Vintage, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S. H.: 1990b, ‘The Global Warming Debate: Science or Politics?’, Environ. Sci. Technol. 24, 432–435.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S. H.: 1994, ‘Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are There Any “Fingerprints”?’, Science 263, 341–347.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shackley, S. and Wynne, B.: 1995, ‘Integrating Knowledges for Climate Change. Pyramids, Nets and Uncertainties’, Global Environ. Change 5, 113–126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G.: 1990, ‘Decision Making’, in Shafer, G. and Pearl, J. (eds.), Readings in Uncertain Reasoning, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, pp. 61–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shlyakter, A., Valverde, L. J., and Wilson, R.: 1995, ‘Integrated Risk Analysis of Global Climate Change’, Chemosphere 30, 1585–1618.

    Google Scholar 

  • Szolovits, P. and Pauker, S. G.: 1993, ‘Categorical and Probabilistic Reasoning in Medicine Revisited’, Artif. Intellig. 59, 167–180.

    Google Scholar 

  • Therivel, R.: 1993, ‘Systems of Strategic Environmental Assessment’, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 13, 145–168.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1991, ‘A Canonical Approach to Diagnostic and Predictive Modelling of Phytoplankton Communities’, Arch. Hydrobiol. 122, 147–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1993, ‘Cyanobacteria Dynamics in a Restored Finnish Lake — a Long Term Simulation Study’, Hydrobiologia 268, 129–145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1994, A Belief Network Approach to Modeling Environmental Change: The Methodology and Prospects for Application, WP–94-40, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, p. 18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1995a, A Belief Network Approach to Optimization and Parameter Estimation in Resource and Environmental Management Models, WP–95-11, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, p. 38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1995b, ‘Belief Networks for Modelling and Assessment of Environmental Change’, Environmetrics 6, 439–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O.: 1996, ‘Water Quality Models: Typologies for Environmental Impact Assessment’, Water Sci. Technol. 34, 109–117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O. and Kettunen, J.: 1990, ‘Modeling of Water Quality in Lake Tuusulanjärvi’, Aqua Fennica 20, 43–52.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O., Kuikka, S., and Taskinen, A.: 1994, ‘Modeling for Water Quality Decisions: Uncertainty and Subjectivity in Information, in Objectives, and in Model Structure’, Ecol. Modelling 74, 91–101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis, O. and Kuikka, S.: 1997, ‘Joint Use of Multiple Environmental Assessment Models by a Bayesian Meta-Model: The Baltic Salmon Case’, Ecol. Modelling, in press.

  • Varis, O. and Somlyódy, L.: 1996, ‘Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on Lake and Reservoir Water Quality’, in Kaczmarek, Z., Strzepek, K., Somlyódy, L., and Priazhinskaya, V. (eds.), Water Resources Management in the Face of Climatic/Hydrologic Uncertainties, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 46–69.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wathern, P.: 1988, ‘Introduction’, in Wathern, P. (ed.), Environmental Impact Assessment, Theory and Practice, Routledge, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank: 1991, Environmental Assessment Sourcebook. Vols. I–III, World Bank Technical Papers 139, 140, 154, The World Bank, Washington D.C., p. 227, 282 and 237.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Varis, O., Kuikka, S. Bene-Eia: A Bayesian Approach to Expert Judgment Elicitation with Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts on Surface Waters. Climatic Change 37, 539–563 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005358216361

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005358216361

Keywords

Navigation