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Conference Paper

A surrogate-based strategy for analyzing post-fire debris flow inundation hazards

Authors

Spiller,  Elaine
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

McGuire,  Luke
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Patra,  Abani
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Patel,  Palak
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Pitman,  Bruce
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Spiller, E., McGuire, L., Patra, A., Patel, P., Pitman, B. (2023): A surrogate-based strategy for analyzing post-fire debris flow inundation hazards, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4416


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021847
Abstract
Wildfire is a catalyst for landcover change that can substantially increase the potential for devastating and destructive debris flow hazards. Debris flows initiate after fires when surface water runoff rapidly erodes sediment on steep slopes. Numerical models of post-fire debris flow bulking and runout are extremely computationally intensive. These models depend on poorly constrained and difficult to measure parameters related to fire-altered soil and vegetation, some of which change in time. Further, the development of debris flows (as opposed to clear flows) also depends on the rainfall intensity of potential storms. To date, modeling-based hazard analysis has focused on “if" a debris flow might be triggered on a given fire scared hillside, and not on the extent or footprint of potential debris flow runouts. We employ statistical emulators of debris flow model output to quantify uncertainties and aid in model-based hazard assessments of post-fire debris flow inundation. As a test case, we apply this methodology to the January 2018 Montecito debris flows which initiated after the Thomas Fire.