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The role of mid-latitude westerly jet in the impacts of November Ural blocking on early-winter warmer Arctic-colder Eurasia pattern

Authors

Xu,  Xinping
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

He,  Shengping
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhou,  Botao
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wang,  Huijun
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Outten,  Stephen
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Xu, X., He, S., Zhou, B., Wang, H., Outten, S. (2023): The role of mid-latitude westerly jet in the impacts of November Ural blocking on early-winter warmer Arctic-colder Eurasia pattern, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4108


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021547
Abstract
Based on statistical analysis using observations and idealized model simulations, previous studies have revealed the potential response of early-winter atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies to November Ural blocking (UB) anomalies. Using a large number of coupled simulations, this study found that the response is sensitive to the intensity of November mid-latitude westerly jet over Eurasia. Stronger-than-normal November UB without a significantly weakened westerly jet could not cause significant atmospheric response in early-winter. By contrast, stronger-than-normal November UB with a significantly weakened jet would be followed by a warmer Arctic-colder Eurasia (WACE) pattern in December. The significantly weakened westerly jet favors stronger upward propagation of planetary waves, which causes stronger weakening and longer persistence of the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists into December and propagates downward into the troposphere interfering with planetary waves (especially wavenumber-1). The lead-lag UB-WACE linkage modulated by mid-latitude jet may have implications for sub-seasonal predictability.